The death of Iran’s supreme leader -- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei -- sent shock waves across the Middle East. Now the question has turned to who will replace him.
The rubble of the Tehran building where Khamenei and other top Iranian officials were killed continued to smolder on March 1, a day after an Israeli air strike flattened the structure.
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran’s supreme leader has played a singular role in the country’s stewardship, also serving as head of state. A vacuum at the top risks destabilizing the entire regime.
Iran’s leadership is now scrambling to ensure the power structures that govern the country remain functional, a process that includes quickly finding a successor to Khamenei.
That man -- who will become the country’s third supreme leader -- will take the helm at a time when US officials have openly called for toppling the theocratic government that has ruled the country since 1979.
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Officially, the body charged with picking, and nominally overseeing, the post of supreme leader is the Assembly of Experts, whose 88 male members are elected and is made up overwhelmingly of hard-line theologians.
There’s no clear parallel elsewhere in the world, though one analogous entity might be the Roman Catholic Church’s College of Cardinals: both are elite clerical bodies involved in picking a supreme leader. (There are other profound differences in legal basis, membership selection, relationship to the state, and religious context).
The assembly’s makeup and functioning came under close scrutiny in 2014, when Khamenei underwent prostate surgery.
After the procedure, Khamenei was dogged by rumors of health problems, and a former president, Ali Rafsanjani, publicly raised the issue of who could come next.
Rafsanjani, who was seen as a rival to Khamenei, was later marginalized by clerical hard-liners who disliked his support for the so-called Green Revolution demonstrations that erupted in 2009.
Rafsanjani was voted out as chairman of the assembly and died in January 2017.
The wrangling offered glimpses into the opaque politicking and political jockeying that characterizes Iran’s governing bodies.
SEE ALSO: Iran's Supreme SuccessorsReports say a three-man committee within the assembly has for years kept a list of possible successors, which has reportedly not even been seen by other members.
Late President Ebrahim Raisi was seen as a protege of Khamenei, who was widely believed to be grooming Raisi to succeed him. However, Raisi died unexpectedly in May 2024 when the helicopter he was on crashed.
That threw a wrench in the works for Khamenei’s successor.
So The Assembly of Experts Chooses Who Comes After Khamenei?
Officially, yes.
In reality, it’s more complicated.
That’s in part because of the existential stress the authorities face as a result of the attacks by Israel, and the United States.
Under Iran’s constitution, when the post of supreme leader is vacated, an interim leadership council – sort of a war council -- takes over decision-making until a new supreme leader is appointed.
President Masud Pezeshkian – who is not a cleric – is on this interim leadership council, as is the head of Iran’s judiciary: Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei.
On March 1, another, separate decision-making body known as the Expediency Council announced that Alireza Arafi would be the third member of the interim leadership council.
Arafi, a cleric who was known to be close to Khamenei, serves as one of two deputy chiefs of the Assembly of Experts.
SEE ALSO: Iranian President's Death Could Trigger 'Power Competition' For Next Supreme LeaderIn 2020, Arafi was named by Khamenei to be the head of all of the country's seminaries, a move that suggested that he met the religious criteria to become the next supreme leader.
Arafi also serves on a different decision-making body -- the 12-member Guardians Council -- which determines whether laws are compliant with the Islamic republic's constitution and also vets election candidates.
So Arafi Will be Khamenei's Successor Then?
Not necessarily.
In 2018, Khamenei appointed a conservative ally, Sadeq Larijani, to serve on the Expediency Council -- which is sometimes known as the Expediency Discernment Council.
At the same time, Larijani, a cleric who is one of three brothers with varying public personas, was also given a seat on the Guardians Council.
Taken together, the moves were seen as Khamenei trying to marginalize moderates, and bolster the hand of more conservative officials. And tip the scales for Larijani.
Then there’s Mojtaba Khamenei, one of the late leader’s six children. During the 2009 antiestablishment protests, there were rumors that the younger Khamenei was a strong contender to succeed his father.
Khamenei's son was believed to have considerable influence behind the scenes and close ties with the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which plays a dominant role in military, political, and economic affairs.
But in the wake of Raisi’s death, when the question of Khamenei’s succession was in public view, a prominent member of the Assembly of Experts said Khamenei was opposed to hereditary rule. That appeared to rule out the younger Khamenei.
Another wild card: the IRGC, which will want to protect its vast interests. The IRGC was a loyal backer of Khamenei.
However, in addition to Khamenei’s death, the Israeli and US air strikes appeared to have killed many -- possibly dozens of top military officials, including top IRGC members.