Iran Said It Opened A Drone Factory In Tajikistan. But There's No Sign Of It.

In May 2022, the head of Iran's armed forces posed for photographers alongside the Tajik defense minister at an undisclosed location near Dushanbe, at a ceremony to announce a major new project.

It was, they said, Iran's first drone production facility abroad: a factory for production of Ababil 2 tactical reconnaissance drones with a reported range of around 200 kilometers -- smaller and cheaper than the Shahed drones that have become a hallmark of Iran's military exports.

Neither man is still in office. Defense Minister Sherali Mirzo was replaced in a leadership reshuffle in January last year. Major General Mohammad Baqeri was killed in an air strike during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June last year.

But back in 2022, Baqeri was voicing excitement at the glowing prospects for the future.

"Today, we have reached a position where, apart from fulfilling domestic needs, we can export military equipment to allies and friendly countries in order to strengthen security," he said.

The following day, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon met with Baqeri, officially welcoming the "defensive and military cooperation" between the two nations. But nearly four years later, it remains unclear whether the factory produces drones, and if so, where they go and who is using them.

Does It Even Exist?

There was no official response to inquiries by RFE/RL's Tajik Service from the Tajik ministries of Defense, Foreign Affairs, and Industry. But two high-ranking officials in Dushanbe said privately that the factory never opened.

"Creating a drone production facility is not like producing Pepsi-Cola. I am 1,000 percent sure that such a factory does not exist in Tajikistan. Absolutely no such factory," said one.

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A Western diplomat based in Dushanbe expressed a similar view, noting the lack of any follow-up reports.

"We read about this in the news at some point. Honestly, after that, we heard nothing about it from either the Americans or our own side," the diplomat said. "If it existed, they would definitely have asked about it and verified it. But nothing like that happened."

Iranian media reported the facility was located in Dushanbe, on the outskirts of the city. Some observers have speculated the factory could be near Ayni Airbase, a major military facility on the periphery of the capital that hosts Tajik and, at times, Russian military assets.

Igor Semyvolos, director of the Center for Middle East Studies in Kyiv, said that with current open-source intelligence (OSINT) -- using satellite and other imagery, and other publicly available data -- production would likely have been detected.

"If we are talking about top-secret production, I don't believe that keeping it absolutely secret is possible given current OSINT capabilities," he said. "The very fact that these drones have not appeared anywhere...means this [project] can quite reasonably be interpreted as a simulation."

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The announcement of the factory came just a few months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. By the summer of 2022, Iran began supplying Russia with its Shahed drones for use in the conflict.

Against this backdrop, Semyvolos said he believes that as the topic of Iranian drones became politically sensitive for Tajikistan -- where cooperation in military technologies with Tehran or Moscow could invite international scrutiny, sanctions, or diplomatic pressure --Dushanbe may have changed plans.

"Perhaps the Tajik authorities decided not to make their lives more complicated and gradually slowed down this process, putting it on the back burner," he said.

Ababil 2: No Sign In Russian Forces

The most direct official comment from the Tajik government came when the Foreign Affairs Ministry issued a statement on October 30, 2022, denying reports that drones made in the country were being supplied to Russia for use in Ukraine.

In the statement, they did not confirm or deny the factory's existence but said Tajikistan "does not export military equipment to third countries."

Semyvolos also said there had been no sign of drones from the factory on Ukrainian battlefields.

"We have not actually seen the Ababil 2 anywhere. If we are talking about the Russian-Ukrainian front, such drones have not appeared," he said. "Assessing the production volume and the functioning of this factory is extremely difficult."

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One of the Tajik officials who spoke to RFE/RL anonymously said the entire inauguration in 2022 was staged to serve Iranian propaganda. They did not elaborate more specifically on the goals.

Eric Lob, associate professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University, told RFE/RL that if the Tajik drone factory inauguration was staged, it could indeed have been for Iranian messaging purposes.

"The pomp and circumstance of these meetings is a way for them to symbolically push back against international isolation, to send signals that Iran is not as isolated [as it seems]. And even for domestic legitimacy, it's sending a signal that this regime has allies and partners and friends," he said.