As United States and Israel wage war against Iran, Tehran is widening the theater of the conflict and raising the costs for Washington in a bid to secure an eventual cease-fire, experts say.
Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones targeting US military bases as well as key energy and commercial sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar -- all American allies -- since February 28.
"The objective is to increase the costs for the United States -- both directly and indirectly -- in order to convince Washington that it cannot succeed in this war," Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL.
"Tehran wants to demonstrate that this is a war the United States cannot win, and that it therefore needs to bring it to an end as soon as possible."
From Signaling To Survival
Iran has targeted US military bases and commercial interests in the region during previous bouts of conflict -- including during Tehran’s 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June 2025 -- but those actions were largely symbolic and highly choreographed.
SEE ALSO: Khamenei's Death A Major Blow But Collapse Of Iran's Clerical Establishment Not GuaranteedIran’s military posture now, experts say, is fundamentally different after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several key security officials were killed in Israeli air strikes on February 28.
"Iran seems to be betting on the sensitivity of the US administration -- and of its allies worldwide -- to rising energy prices," Azizi said. "This is not just about regional pressure. It is about adding weight to an already fragile global market still reeling from the repercussions of the war in Ukraine."
About one-fifth of the world's oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. Iran has previously considered closing the route, a move that would disrupt global oil flows.
SEE ALSO: US Embassy In Riyadh Hit By DronesSpeaking to Al Jazeera TV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi acknowledged on March 1 that the country’s Arab neighbors were “not happy” with Iran but urged them to “understand” that the United States and Israel started the war.
“They [Gulf states] shouldn’t pressure us to stop this war. They should pressure the other side,” he said.
Saturation And 'Loitering' Threats
On the ground, the military reality is one of grueling attrition.
Farzin Nadimi, a defense specialist at the Washington Institute, noted that Iran has learned from past failures, deploying its most advanced assets like the Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles to overwhelm sophisticated Western-made air defenses deployed by US allies in the region.
"The goal is to ensure that air defense systems and the civilian population in shelters are under constant tension," Nadimi told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. He observed that Iran has maintained a steady rhythm of firing roughly 25 ballistic missiles per hour, a pace designed to deplete interceptor stockpiles.
SEE ALSO: Khamenei's Removal Could Reshape Iran: General Petraeus Explains The RisksIn just over a few days, Iranian drones and missiles have struck a major gas plant in Qatar, an oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, a US base in Kuwait, and a major airport in the United Arab Emirates among other targets.
The United States and Israel, for their part, have responded with a new level of persistence.
"US Air Force tankers are providing the necessary support to allow Israeli jets to remain over their target areas [in Iran] for longer periods -- what we call 'loitering,'" Nadimi added. "If they can keep these aircraft in the sky with larger ordnance, they can permanently take Iranian [missile] launchers out of the cycle."
'Survival At Stake'
For Washington, the challenge is whether the force of its air campaign can break Tehran before the economic fallout breaks the resolve of its allies.
Gulf capitals, once vocal supporters of containing Iran, are reportedly growing wary as their US-provided Patriot and Aegis defense systems are being overwhelmed.
Nadimi warned that "blinding one of these 'eyes' [radars] can affect the performance of the entire missile defense network in the region."
Ultimately, the conflict has moved beyond traditional cost-benefit analysis.
"When regimes perceive their survival to be at stake, they may resort to extreme measures that do not fully conform to rational calculations," Azizi noted. "In existential situations, most other considerations recede. Decision-making centers on survival, and that is the frame through which this war of attrition must be understood."