Iran Watching For Trump's Next Move After Stunning Midterm Elections Blow

The landslide victory by Democrats in US midterm elections is expected to bring change to Congress and foreign policy in Washington. But inside Iran, many officials said they expect the country will remain in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump, even if the vote has left him weaker.

As the results poured in late on November 3, showing Democrats had taken control of both the House of Representatives and Senate from their Republican rivals, Trump admitted the war he launched on Iran on the last day of February had taken a toll on his party.

But Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a statement on November 4 -- the anniversary of when radical students cemented Iran's toppling of the US-backed Shah by storming the US Embassy and holding 52 Americans hostage there for 444 days -- that anyone expecting any fundamental change in US policy simply because one party had replaced another is “gravely mistaken.”

He warned against "even the slightest inclination toward submission" to the United States, adding that "the US sees the end of its hegemony as distant; we see it as near."

While Iranian and American negotiators have actively engaged in indirect talks in recent days -- primarily mediated by Qatar and Pakistan -- to end the military conflict, Trump has declined to rule out resuming strikes on Iran as the United States still has to "take care of" one or two more targets, including a suspected nuclear site.

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Jalal Rashidikoochi, a reformist former Iranian lawmaker, said he saw little difference between Democrats and Republicans, though he still described the election as a “historic and humiliating” rejection by American voters of those who had pushed for war against Iran. He also urged newly elected members of the House and Senate to heed that message.

To be sure, many officials took the opportunity to gloat over the results, with some crediting Iranians’ “popular resistance,” the "bravery of Iranian fighters," and Iran's "historical revenge" against those responsible for the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of US and Israeli air strikes in the conflict.

But such statements do not necessarily reveal how Iran's leadership will act.

And the election may change less than Iranian officials suggest, as Trump still has some powerful foreign policy levers and will remain in office until January 2029.

Harder Line Or A Waiting Game?

Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL that senior Iranian officials see the results as a victory for the Islamic republic and a vindication of its uncompromising approach.

"In that context, I expect the results to lead to a further hardening, rather than a softening, of Iran's position," he said.

That, he said, applies especially to Tehran's core demands: that Washington take the first step by lifting sanctions and the blockade, and that any agreement should not involve major nuclear concessions.

Azizi warned that such a stance could raise, rather than lower, the risk of a new clash, particularly if Trump decides he has nothing more to lose and gambles that a victory abroad could offset his setback at home.

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Another possibility, according to Damon Golriz, a lecturer at The Hague University of Applied Sciences, is that Tehran might opt to wait out Trump’s term.

Golriz told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda that Iran may conclude it is better off avoiding major concessions to Trump and holding out for a future US administration with which it believes a more durable agreement could be possible.

He pointed to the negotiations under President Barack Obama that produced the 2015 nuclear deal, as well as what he described as serious diplomatic engagement under former President Joe Biden, as evidence that a different political environment in Washington could offer Tehran better prospects.

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Golriz also expects the period ahead to remain volatile, with Trump potentially seeking to project strength after the electoral setback and continuing to rely on military and economic pressure to force Iranian concessions.

But Golriz argued that military strikes cannot resolve the disputes over Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. A lasting solution, he said, would require negotiations that are “secret, direct, sustained, long-term and serious,” potentially even more extensive than the talks that produced the 2015 nuclear deal.

Azizi said Tehran's leadership seems aware of the danger, pointing to Khamenei's warning as a clear sign of it. But the outcome, he said, rests largely in Washington.

"The stakes remain high," he said. "Much depends on how Trump assesses his own position and that of the Republican Party, and how he responds to domestic pressures pushing him in either direction."