Balkan, in western Turkmenistan along the Iranian border, is one of the first regions to feel any disruption in trade from Iran. Residents there are reliant on imported goods arriving daily from nearby crossings, so even minor delays or price changes in Iranian shipments are immediately noticeable in local markets.
As one Balkan resident put it: "We are almost entirely dependent on Iran for both food and household items. Without these imports, our markets would be nearly empty."
Another resident, reporting on current market shortages, said there are already apparent shortages due to cargo from Iran being held up. "Five liters of Iranian cooking oil used to be 150 manats ($29), and today it's 200. Prices for cleaning and chemical products have gone up by 5 manats across the board. Some shops that normally sell Iranian food in bulk are now selling only in small quantities."
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan's capital, located just 25 kilometers north of the Iranian border and roughly 350 kilometers northeast of the main Sarakhs crossing, sees supply fluctuations and price increases with a slight lag after border regions. But residents there are feeling the pressure on daily staples.
SEE ALSO: Activist Once Detained In China Faces Trial In Kazakhstan As Family Battles Closed-Door Case"The prices of potatoes have nearly tripled. Before, we could buy them for 7–9 manats per kilogram depending on size, but now they cost 17 manats. Tomatoes have also doubled, going from 10 to 20 manats. Eggs are 65 manats, and chicken meat has shot up from 40 to 90 manats per kilogram. Even Iranian cigarettes, which used to be 30 manats, now cost 50–60 manats," one resident said.
Prices have almost doubled compared with pre-war levels. With an average salary of around 2,500 manats -- equal to about $714 by the official rate or $125 on the black market -- a large portion of the population is hit hard.
While Turkmenistan also imports industrial goods like steel, construction materials, and petrochemicals from Iran, food and household items remain a critical lifeline for many residents.
The Sarakhs border crossing, a key hub for Iranian goods entering Turkmenistan, had handled increasing volumes of goods before the conflict -- highlighting how important this route is for everyday supplies. But since the military operations began, trade through Sarakhs and other crossings has largely ground to a halt.
PlanetLabs satellite imagery from February 27 showed a long line of trucks waiting at the Turkmen customs checkpoint, while subsequent images indicate no movement at all.
Satellite images of the Iran-Turkmenistan Sarakhs border crossing on Februay 27 and March 1, respectively.
'Products Will Disappear'
Other Central Asian nations are also feeling the ripple effects. Even though Iran is not among Uzbekistan's top 10 trade partners, markets and supermarkets there normally sell a wide range of Iranian dairy products, fresh and dried fruits, and household goods at affordable prices. Much of the Iranian dairy imports arriving in Uzbekistan travel north through Turkmen territory, but the future of these goods is uncertain.
An Uzbek distributor of Iranian dairy products in Samarkand told RFE/RL that the "storage facilities are emptying fast."
"We used to have about 15 trucks of Iranian dairy products arriving via Turkmenistan and distributed within Uzbekistan daily. Now this has stopped," he said. "If the war continues and borders stay closed, these products will disappear from the shelves. For now, we are selling our existing stock for the usual prices, but soon those prices will have to rise."
Dairy products have been a key part of Iran's exports other than oil to Uzbekistan, making Iran one of the country's top suppliers. Market share estimates place Iran as a top five supplier of dairy goods to Uzbekistan, holding roughly 8–10 percent of the import market. While it trails behind Russia and Belarus, the primary driver for Iranian dairy is its affordability, often priced 20–40 percent lower than competitors.
SEE ALSO: Iran War Descends Into Regional Conflict With Global SpilloversThe Ripple Economic Effects
While the consumer market in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are directly dependent on Iranian food and non-food items, Kazakhstan primarily functions as a hub for Chinese goods, especially through the Khorgos dry port on its border with China.
However, experts caution that the ongoing conflict could soon create indirect effects, particularly through rising global oil prices.
Kazakh economist Qazhygeldi Shambyl says rising prices of oil and natural gas are a "double-edged sword for Kazakhstan."
"It may seem that budget revenues will increase, but budget expenditures grow at an even faster pace. This means inflation within Kazakhstan will rise rapidly," Shambyl said. "And this will have a major negative effect on the numerical growth of the budget deficit."
"I don't personally believe in any forecast saying Kazakhstan will benefit from the situation in Iran," he added.
Trade Via Iranian Land And Ports Disrupted
The ongoing war in Iran has disrupted key transit corridors across the region. The United Arab Emirates, and the Jebel Ali Port in Dubai in particular, serves as the primary "re-export" gateway for Central Asia. Goods from Europe, other Gulf countries, and India typically arrive in Dubai, are loaded onto smaller feeder vessels, and pass through the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian ports like Bandar Abbas. From there, they move by rail or truck through Turkmenistan into other Central Asian countries.
With the strait blocked, this entire Southern Corridor has collapsed.
SEE ALSO: Attacks On Shipping Raise Fears For Global Oil Supplies Amid Iran ConflictQasim Bekmumhammad, a political analyst familiar with Central Asian trade, told RFE/RL's Tajik Service that Iran was "considered one of the shortest and safest" transit routes for goods "in accessing free waters for the countries of Central Asia."
"Iran is a transportation route, a transit route for goods in accessing free waters for the countries of Central Asia. At the same time, it was considered one of the shortest and safest routes, which is of paramount importance for Central Asia in the context of the Afghan crisis, as well as the Russian route."
Traders told RFE/RL that if the disruption continues they will have no choice but to seek alternative suppliers to replace Iranian imports. China is likely to step in to fill the void as it already dominates Central Asian consumer markets, from food to electronics. Such a shift could potentially reshape regional trade patterns.
A resident of Balkan voiced concerns over the cascading effect of the Iran war, emphasizing the human cost: "If the conflict drags on for six months or longer, ordinary people in Turkmenistan could face severe shortages of basic foods and household necessities."