LISBON -- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Russia's war against Ukraine is at a stalemate but could escalate into a broader regional conflict if the deadlock pushes either side toward increasingly dangerous actions.
Speaking in Lisbon on the final stop of a three-country swing through NATO allies Iceland, Greece, and Portugal, Rubio said Washington believes the war ultimately requires a negotiated settlement and remains ready to facilitate diplomacy.
His remarks came as a Russian strike on two buses in the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk killed at least 33 people on October 8, according to local authorities.
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Russian Strike On Ukrainian Buses Kills More Than 30 Passengers In Kramatorsk
Asked by RFE/RL about Russia's attacks on Ukraine and the security of NATO's eastern flank, Rubio called the conflict “a very dangerous war” that has reached reached a stalemate, which generally ends either through negotiations or escalation.
The first option requires both sides to make difficult compromises. The second could involve Russia or Ukraine intensifying the conflict in an attempt to change the military balance.
“That’s very dangerous,” Rubio said.
He warned that escalation could include sabotage in neighboring NATO countries, a strike, or other actions that could rapidly widen the conflict.
That could “quickly turn what is a war between two countries to a much broader, far more dangerous regional conflict,” he said.
“In the end, we do not believe that there will be military solutions...We think this war needs to end, and the negotiated settlement is sooner and better.”
Portugal's foreign minister backed diplomatic efforts to end the war, saying Russia's invasion violates international law and that any settlement should respect Ukraine's sovereignty.
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More Drones, More Missiles, No Air Defenses: Moldova In The Cross Fire Of Russia's War On UkraineRubio also recast the debate over NATO defense spending, describing increased military outlays as an investment in defense rather than simply “spending more.” He said stronger individual NATO members would strengthen the alliance and its deterrence.
Rubio said NATO is fundamentally a defensive alliance and that its credibility depends on the capabilities of its members.
“NATO is important. For NATO to matter, NATO has to be strong,” he said. “For NATO to be strong, NATO's member states need to be strong.”
He said NATO members have different circumstances and cannot all contribute in the same way, but each should develop the strongest capabilities it can. “
He also called for greater cooperation on advanced military technology and the next generation of weapons, saying allies need to work together to meet future threats.
Asked whether European allies could continue to rely on the US amid possible changes to the American military presence in Europe, Rubio stressed the importance of maintaining strong NATO capabilities and deterrence.
He did not provide details on future US troop deployments but said the alliance's members share responsibility for maintaining its strength.
Rubio also sharply criticized Iran when asked about concerns surrounding the use of Portugal's Lajes air base and allegations raised by Amnesty International over potential violations of international law.
He declined to comment on a Portuguese investigation, saying it was a matter for Portuguese authorities.
Rubio instead accused Amnesty International of failing to focus on alleged abuses by Iran's government against protesters, including the "murders in cold blood of tens of thousands of people in the streets.”
“Those are war crimes. Those are crimes against humanity. Those are crimes committed against their own people,” Rubio said.