Will Russia's War Against Ukraine End In 2026?

Summary

Analysts say the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in 2026, in part because Russia seems unwilling to make substantial concessions.
Russia continues offensive operations, while Ukraine still controls sizable portions of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson regions.
February 24 will mark four years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"Of course I want all this to end sooner, but…it seems to me that it will continue for a while," a Ukrainian soldier who gave only his first name, Petro, told RFE/RL at a position near the front last May.

"There won't be a cease-fire…. Everything indicates that the war will go on," said another man in his unit, Oleksandr. He added that at a minimum, Russia seemed determined to take the portion of Ukraine's Donetsk region that remains under Kyiv's control.

Eight months later there's no cease-fire, let alone a lasting peace. Russia has been unable, despite intense and deadly fighting, to capture Donetsk in its entirety -- one of its fundamental goals -- and analysts say the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II is unlikely to end in 2026.

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Ukrainian Frontline Soldiers Skeptical About Cease-Fire Prospects

"None of the conditions for a final resolution of the conflict are in place," Ruth Deyermond, a senior lecturer in the Department of War Studies at King's College London, told RFE/RL. "Neither Ukraine nor Russia seems to be in a position to achieve a conclusive victory on the battlefield and, though both are under significant pressure, neither appears likely to collapse."

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, with the expectation that Ukraine would be subjugated in short order. Nearly four years later, Russian forces hold less Ukrainian territory than they did in the first few weeks of the onslaught.

On foot, by motorcycle, and even on horseback when mud stymies vehicles, they are pushing forward slowly and at a huge cost in terms of casualties -- but Kyiv still controls sizable portions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson, three of the five Ukrainian regions Moscow baselessly claims are now Russian.

On the two sides taken together, the war has killed or wounded more than 1.5 million combatants, according to Western intelligence estimates. Relentless Russian air attacks across Ukraine have killed or wounded tens of thousands of civilians and have decimated the country's power and energy infrastructure.

The main obstacle to peace in 2026 is Russia, which "seems to have no interest in an end to the fighting, let alone the war," Deyermond said.

US President Donald Trump started his second term in office last January with brokering an end to the war high on his agenda. In a whirlwind of diplomacy in the past few months, Ukraine, its European backers, and the United States have drawn closer to agreement on a blueprint for peace.

Talking Tough

The chances of success, however, have been clouded throughout by the question of whether Russia would make any concessions on key issues such as territory -- especially in the Donbas but also elsewhere -- and its attitude about security guarantees for Kyiv, particularly when it comes to the prospect of Western soldiers on the ground in Ukraine. Disagreements over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant are another sticking point.

The coming weeks could bring more clarity "as peace negotiations settle out. It appears that the US, Ukraine, and Europe can find common ground, but Russia is not willing to make concessions," Mark Cancian, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told RFE/RL. "Their stated goals are totally unacceptable to any of the other parties. Their intransigence stems from their belief that they are winning."

Amid reports of progress in recent talks involving Ukraine and the West, Russia has, if anything, signaled a harder line.

In fact, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated outright that Moscow would "toughen [its] negotiating position" after Russia accused Ukraine of launching a large-scale drone attack on one of Putin's residences. Kyiv denied it, and Trump -- after initially suggesting he believed it when Putin told him about by phone -- later echoed a CIA conclusion that neither the Russian president nor his residence was targeted.

Putin used a December 19 press conference, a New Year's address, and an appearance on Orthodox Christmas to signal that Russia is focused on victory, not peace. He praised Russian soldiers in his remarks on December 31 and on January 7, when he said they were on a "holy mission" like that of Jesus Christ. He made no mention of peace.

"Putin's default position remains continuing the war, based on operations on the ground and guidance to his commanders, who remain committed to offensive operations against all four Ukrainian regions [that Russia claims in addition to Crimea] -- Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Kherson -- in 2026," said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an expert on the Russian military.

"Putin is still laying claim to 'Donbas and Novorossiya,'" she said, noting that he used a contentious term that harks back to imperial Russia's dominion over swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine.

Of course, Putin is known for talking tough, and he's no stranger to using public bluster to hide a more pragmatic or nuanced approach.

With internal and external pressures rising, "both Russia and Ukraine are looking for ways to end the war on terms that are best for them, rather than dragging it out for many years to come," Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at the Crisis Group, told RFE/RL.

Breaking Point

"This is the main lesson of 2025. Both sides understand that prolonging the full-scale war for too long carries the risk of destabilizing them and hindering their development for many years to come," he said. But for now, he said, "both sides believe that continuing the war could improve their negotiating positions in 2026."

Both countries have vulnerabilities, including challenges connected to manpower -- a major problem for Ukraine -- as well as weapons supplies, economic constraints, and other factors.

When the war will end is unclear, but "what I can tell you is that the pressure on Russia's domestic war machine will be bigger in 2026 than at any time over the past four years," Andras Toth-Czifra, a fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute and an expert Russian regional and budgetary issues, told RFE/RL.

But "despite personnel gaps and financial shortages, Ukraine will likely fight until it truly runs out of arms, soldiers, or both. Nor should we expect Russia to crumble as a result of mounting economic costs and personnel losses," said Olga Oliker, Europe and Central Asia program director at the Crisis Group.

At a cemetery in Lviv, in western Ukraine, a woman visits the grave of a relative killed fighting against the Russian invasion, on May 23, 2025.

"Fundamentally, while it is possible for either side to reach its breaking point this year, just where those breaking points are may prove knowable only in hindsight," Oliker told RFE/RL.

Thus, the full-scale war could "continue into its fifth year, with limited territorial gains, high casualties, and continuing missile and drone strikes throughout Ukraine and on key targets in Russia," she said.

While there are alternatives to a continuation of all-out conflict, "The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in a sustainable peace in 2026," Oliker said. One possibility, she said, is that "the Trump administration will pressure Kyiv into accepting most, if not all, of Russia's terms, amounting to an effective surrender."

This would likely lead to a tense situation, stoking political volatility in Ukraine and concern about Russia's intentions elsewhere in Europe, while "Moscow, too, will be nervous, while also looking to cement gains," she said. "None of this will look much like peace, and it may yet spark more violent conflict."

Deyermond also said that while the war is unlikely to end in 2026, "it may become a temporarily frozen conflict if a cease-fire is agreed."

Damaged buildings in the largely destroyed Donetsk region city of Vuhledar on January 27, 2023

But "even if the active phase of the war is paused, like other frozen conflicts it can't be settled by negotiation because both parties think their most fundamental interests are at stake," she said.

"For Ukraine…Russia's occupation and its imperialist desire to control Ukraine -- to force it back into a colonial relationship that erases Ukrainian independence and national identity -- is an existential threat," Deyermond said. "On the Russian side, Putin's presidency is now so tied to the war and to the project to subjugate Ukraine that no de-occupation or withdrawal of demands about the future character and direction of Ukraine seems possible until Russia has a new president."

However, she added, "there doesn't seem to be much chance of a change in the Kremlin in 2026, so I expect that in late December 2026 we'll be asking ourselves if the war is likely to end in 2027."