Russia is facing its worst nationwide fuel shortages in years, with at least 17 regions imposing mandatory restrictions on gasoline and diesel sales, and dozens of others reporting shortages or restrictions by private fuel companies.
The increasing scarcity of fuel has been caused mainly by a widening campaign of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting oil terminals, refineries, and pipelines. The largest fuel supplier to the Moscow region, the Kapotnya refinery, was hit twice this month; the plant will be offline until at least the end of 2026, unnamed officials told Reuters.
The shortages pose an increasingly serious headache for the Kremlin, which shows no sign of relenting in its all-out assault on Ukraine despite growing signs of impatience among Russians more than four years into the war.
As of June 24, at least 55 of Russia’s 83 federal entities -- regions, republics, krais, oblasts, and so-called federally-designated cities -- were reporting either mandatory, government restrictions on gasoline and diesel sales, or restrictions imposed by private companies operating fuel stations, according to an RFE/RL tally.
In nearly two dozen other regions, shortages have been reported by local news outlets or on social media platforms like Telegram or VK.
“The Russian oil industry’s resilience is being stretched dangerously thin,” wrote Sergei Vakulenko, an energy sector analyst with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
The five Ukrainian regions that Russia has fully or partially occupied are also facing major shortages; last week, the governor of Crimea announced a total halt in gasoline sales following weeks of Ukrainian drone strikes on highways, bridges, and other supply routes to the Black Sea peninsula.
Ukraine’s aerial offensive comes after years of bombardment by Russia. Since late 2022, Moscow has used its vast arsenal -- cruise and ballistic missiles; retrofitted “glide” bombs; kamikaze attack drones -- to pummel not only Ukrainian troops, but also civilian energy facilities and oil infrastructure. Thousands of civilians have been killed.
This past winter was the worst for Ukraine since the start of the invasion, with millions suffering through darkness and cold temperatures for months.
Ukraine itself has raced to build out its drone industry, and it now produces vast quantities of powerful and sophisticated drones, as well as homegrown cruise missiles, that it is using with increasing effectiveness.
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Ukraine's Dog Winter: Grid Collapse, Russian Barrages, Hot Street Meals, Bitter ColdThe arsenal includes long-range drones equipped with heavy explosives and anti-jamming technology that allows them to evade Russian air defenses.
Ukrainian drones have hit oil terminals and export facilities on the Baltic and Black seas, curtailing Moscow’s ability to export hydrocarbons, and fund its war effort. And more than two dozen Ukrainian strikes have targeted Russian refineries since March, including eight of the country’s 10 biggest refineries.
Analysts estimate that more than 20 percent of Russia’s total refining capacity has been knocked offline.
“This level of disruption is unprecedented in the history of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” the International Energy Agency said in a report this week.