After their latest push on Debaltseve, pro-Russian rebels are hemming in thousands of Ukrainian troops on three sides, and are close enough to shell their supply route from Artemovsk. Ukraine’s generals have ordered their men to hold the line while diplomats struggle to revive the Minsk peace deal. Their soldiers fight valiantly, but with little understanding of the strategy. “We’ve either got to attack and even out the line, or retreat,” says one. “We’re doing neither.”
Debaltseve’s strategic value lies in its rail and road links. With time, it has assumed symbolic importance. “There is not a tactical explanation for what Ukraine is doing,” says Igor Sutyagin at RUSI, a London-based think-tank. “There is a political and psychological explanation.” Losing Debaltseve would dent morale. Doctors in Artemovsk say official casualty figures are understated. Draft-dodging haunts Ukraine’s mobilisation effort. Criticism of the generals has mounted since the loss of Donetsk airport. Although Ukraine’s forces have so far given up little ground at Debaltseve, its fall is a matter of time.