Relations between the former Yugoslav Balkan states are at their worst in some time. The Slovenians are threatening to sabotage the Croatian tourist season. The Serbian foreign minister, Ivica Dacic, has been busy insulting neighboring Macedonia and Montenegro. Croatian President Kolinda Grabar Kitarevic is contributing to the worst relations between Serbia and Croatia since the end of the war in 1995.
Meanwhile, Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic has managed to sour relations with the Bosnian capital, Sarajevo. First he attended the celebration of Republika Srpska's "statehood day" on January 9 despite the fact that it has been declared unconstitutional.
Two days later, on January 11, he received Momcilo Krajisnik, a convicted war criminal who had been sentenced to 20 years in prison for crimes committed during the war (1992-95) including deportations, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity. After serving two-thirds of his sentence in a British prison, Krajisnik returned to Banja Luka to establish an association called The Founders Of Republika Srpska. It was in that capacity that he was officially received by Nikolic.
After the meeting in Belgrade, Krajisnik was asked whose idea it had been to organize the meeting -- his or president Nikolic's.
"No, it was not President Milosevic's idea," he responded.
When the journalist pointed out that he had said "Milosevic" instead of "Nikolic," Krajisnik apologized for the slip of the tongue, explaining that on numerous occasions in the past he had held meetings with the late Yugoslav and Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic -- who died before his war-crimes trial could be concluded in The Hague -- in the same building.
Only two nongovernmental groups in Serbia reacted to Nikolic's meeting with a convicted war criminal. The prominent Belgrade human rights lawyer Natasa Kandic, in an interview with RFE/RL's Balkan Service, said that Nikolic was finally showing his real face as he approaches the end of his mandate.
"The meeting with Krajisnik, a convicted war criminal, is scandalous. It is scandalous not least because [Nikolic] is the president of Serbia and the meeting took place in Serbia, a country that was behind the things that Krajisnik had done, and for which he was convicted," said Kandic.
Kandic is among those who are increasingly concerned with the revival of the expansionist aims that fueled the Balkan wars of the 1990s. Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik has made statements in support of the idea of a Greater Serbian state that would include the Serb entity in Bosnia, Serbia proper, parts of Kosovo and Montenegro -- opinions that Nikolic failed to disavow on his recent visit to Banja Luka.
Others, however, do not see the Serbian government as the chief promoter of this resurgence of nationalism but rather ascribe that role to Vladimir Putin's Russia.
Vuk Draskovic, a former Serbian foreign minister, recalls that Dodik himself started out as a pro-NATO moderate and an opponent of the Greater Serbian project.
"Now he is saying the very opposite, and it is clear that his main support is not coming from Belgrade," Draskovic said. "We should not forget that when he organized his referendum on Republika Srpska statehood day, he did not receive support from [Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar] Vucic, but he did travel to Moscow."
"True, there are many in Belgrade" who share Dodik's opinions, he added, "from academics, movie directors to the Orthodox Church hierarchy -- all those who supported the policies of Slobodan Milosevic." However, Draskovic said, he believes that they are all doing Moscow's bidding.
Holding Belgrade 'Hostage'
Dodik currently appears to be the one who is prepared to go furthest in challenging the West and the Western-backed order in the Balkans, relying on Russian support. However, the Serbian government risks allowing itself to be pulled along by Dodik's increasingly bold nationalist rhetoric, according to political analyst Bosko Jaksic.
"The main danger is that Belgrade is becoming a hostage to Dodik's ideas and policies," Jalisic told RFE/RL's Balkan Service, adding that there are clear signs of divergence between Serbian President Nikolic and Prime Minister Vucic on the issue, despite their denials of a split.
"President Nikolic was present at the academy in Banja Luka when [outspokenly pro-Serbian, Sarajevo-born filmmaker] Emir Kusturica referred to Bosnian presidency member Bakir Izetbegovic" -- a Muslim -- "as Lucifer's minion and lamented the fact that the Serbs did not have the nuclear bomb, and neither Nikolic nor the other members of the Serbian government who attended made any comment. That is a big problem for Belgrade" and Vucic's government, Jaksic said.
There also appears to be hope in some nationalist circles in Serbia that the new geopolitical order will be favorable to their aim of redrawing the map of the region. Dragomir Andjelkovic, an analyst who is highly critical of Brussels and the European Union project, has suggested his hopes rest on a rapprochement between Putin's Russia and the incoming U.S. administration of Donald Trump.
"If Dodik makes the right moves, and if U.S.-Russian relations improve, it is entirely possible that Republika Srpska will achieve independence. In that case, some kind of confederation between Serbia, Republika Srpska, northern Kosovo, and maybe even Montenegro is not inconceivable," said Andjelkovic.
This may sound fanciful. But a recent article in Foreign Affairs by former British diplomat Timothy Less is advocating the same solution. Arguing that Western policy of defending multiculturalism in the region has failed, Less calls for a major redrawing of national boundaries in the Balkans along ethnic lines -- always a dangerous proposition. His support for the creation of a "Greater" Serbia, Croatia, and Albania may be a private opinion -- one that has been disavowed by British officials -- but his article has been translated and widely circulated throughout the region.
Possibly anticipating warmer relations between Washington and Moscow, nationalists in many countries in the region appear to be dusting off their most ambitious schemes, perhaps sensing that the United States and the European Union might be distracted. A neglected Balkans is a dangerous place.
The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect the views of RFE/RL