What A Trump Win Could Mean For China
By Reid Standish
It's hard to say if Beijing had a preferred candidate for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, but the prospect of dealing with another U.S. administration led by Donald Trump brings several obvious challenges for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
For China, Trump is the ultimate wild card.
His previous term saw a trade war, with him slapping tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese goods and launching a global campaign against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei. On the campaign trail, he threatened upwards of 60 percent tariffs on all imports from China and has spoken openly of his desire to ramp up another trade war. None of that is good news for Beijing — especially in the short term — as it grapples with a slowing economy and weighs how to deploy a fiscal stimulus.
Chinese officials have so far not reacted to the November 5 U.S. election, but if there is upside for China in a Trump victory, it's in the long term.
Chinese analysts have sometimes seen Trump's divisiveness at home and his "America First" brand of foreign policy as a net gain for Beijing as it tries to overtake Washington on the global stage and weaken its alliances.
On issues like Ukraine, where Trump has called for ending the war as quickly as possible, or Taiwan, where he said the island nation isn't paying Washington enough money for the U.S. government's military and political support, China may be able to capitalize on Trump's less traditional approach.
But while that may create new opportunities for Beijing, it could also lead to a more pronounced U.S. military footprint in the Indo-Pacific and create new headaches for Beijing in Asia.
Read more in my China In Eurasia Briefing here.
'Maximum Pressure' On Iran?
If Trump returns to the White House, will he continue with the same approach, leading to a new chapter of "maximum pressure" strategy on Iran? Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Project and a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group, told Radio Farda:
"Those close to Mr. Trump and the team currently preparing for his potential second term believe in the maximum pressure strategy. They argue that it didn’t achieve its goals last time only because there wasn’t enough time, the pressure didn’t reach its peak, and the Biden administration didn’t enforce it strongly. They therefore emphasize that Washington should first revive this policy, pursuing it with tougher pressure, and reactivating UN Security Council sanctions with support from the European Union."
-- Saeid Jafari
Bosnian separatist leader hosts reception over announcement of Trump's win:
By Ajla Obradovic
Milorad Dodik, president of the Bosnian entity Republika Srpska, addressed citizens in front of his office in Banja Luka after Donald Trump declared victory in the U.S. election.
Standing beside him were Bosnian Presidency member Željka Cvijanović and ministers in Republika Srpska's government. RFE/RL's Balkan Service reports that a significant portion of the crowd consisted of people employed in entity institutions or members of parties in coalition with Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats.
"This is a victory for the America we believe in, an America that stands for peace," Dodik said in a brief speech outside the building.
The crowd waved flags of Republika Srpska, Serbia, and Russia.
Dodik has been under sanctions by the United States and the United Kingdom for some time. He was added to the U.S. OFAC blacklist in 2017 for "obstructing the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement." Dodik was placed under additional sanctions in January 2022.
The first reaction from Central Asia:
Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov has congratulated Donald Trump. His press service has just shared Japarov’s congratulatory message with RFE/RL's Radio Azattyk:
"I believe that your leadership experience and deep knowledge will create an opportunity to further deepen comprehensive cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and the United States based on the principles of mutual respect. I am confident that with our joint work for the glory and future of our people, we can successfully overcome the global challenges ahead and raise our partnership to a new level.
"I declare that I will do my best to develop multi-directional cooperation between the Kyrgyz Republic and the United States of America, which has wide opportunities,” Japarov said.
'Not A Disaster': Ukrainian Experts See Opportunities In Cooperation With Trump
By Sashko Shevchenko
Donald Trump’s potential victory in the U.S. presidential election can prove to be beneficial for the Ukrainian cause, although risky, Kyiv-based Ukrainian Prism think-tank expert Oleksandr Krayev believes.
"Throughout the campaign, I repeated over and over again that there is no 'better' or 'worse' option in this equation for us. There are more risky and less risky ones. Trump, with all his instability and unpredictability, is exactly the risky one -- but not exclusively in a negative context. He can really unpredictably give us everything we need if we agree to negotiate. Or he can stop deliveries if he suddenly forgets where we are," says Krayev.
Trump before the election and Trump after the election may be somewhat different, the international affairs expert Bohdan Ferents told RFE/RL’s live show Svoboda Ranok.
He thinks there will be two scenarios of possible communication between the White House and the Kremlin, which wants Trump to win, according to Ferents.
First, Moscow will try to enhance the level of consultations directly with the U.S. On the other hand, Trump might try to raise the stakes in his communication with Russia.
"Given his business background, his desire to be really unpredictable, he can go for both aggravation and the formation of certain options. And here, in my opinion, not everything will be resolved very quickly, because, again, Trump has promised to end the Russian war," Ferents said.
How Will The U.S. Election Impact Washington’s Iran Policy?
The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will likely impact Washington’s policy toward Iran. Under an "unpredictable" Trump, U.S. policy toward Iran would be “more of the inkling and the gut feeling of one man,” said one expert. Read the story by Kian Sharifi here.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian:
Afghan voices:
Taliban spokesman Inamullah Samangani:
“They said that finally a woman will become the president in America, something that has never happened and maybe after this no one will believe that she will. Americans are not ready to hand over the reins of their country to a woman."
Former U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad:
The head of the office of the president of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak:
"I would like to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory in the U.S. election.
"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskiy and our team had a good meeting with President Donald Trump in September. We managed to discuss in detail the Victory Plan of Ukraine, the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States, and ways to end the war.
"The Presidents also had a good working relationship during Donald Trump's first term in office.
"It is important that Ukraine has bipartisan support in the United States.
"'Peace through strength' is exactly the approach we need now. Because Russia and autocrats understand only the language of force. Aggressors must be brought back to a clear framework of justice.
"We need a just peace, and the world needs a strong United States and the triumph of democracy."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov weighs in:
The U.S. is an unfriendly country involved in a war against Russia, Peskov said, stating that Putin has no plans to congratulate Trump.
Peskov called the election results an internal matter for the U.S. At the same time, he acknowledged some optimism in Russia regarding Trump's election: "You know, during the campaign, there were statements that spoke of his peaceful intentions on the international stage."