DEMONSTRATION AND COUNTER-DEMONSTRATION
RFE/RL's Russian Service has produced this video of a demonstration in support of those imprisoned in the Bolotnaya case. Pro-Kremlin counter demonstrators, some dressed as NATO troops, some wearing St. George ribbons, and one dressed as Uncle Sam, harass them.
PUTIN, PUTIN, GO AWAY
On The Twitter, Ilya Yashin reminds us of a stunt he pulled two years ago.
The tweet reads: Today is Putin's birthday. We expressed our wish for him two years ago.
The sign (in yellow) behind the Kremlin reads: "Putin Go Away."
IS HE GOING TO TRY TO BAN UNSANCTIONED TWEETING?
REMEMBERING ANNA POLITKOVSKAYA
Eight years ago today, investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya was slain in Moscow. Here's a selection of tweets in her memory. Not enough to do her justice, of course. There are many more at the hashtags #ЦветыАнне & #Politkovskaja
PUTIN DOCUMENTARY (IN FRENCH)
French journalist Nicolas Tonev's documentary on Putin:
THE LOWER-VOLGA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC?
If this happened in Ukraine, the Kremlin would probably say it was a freedom fighter. But since it happened in Astrakhan, Russia, it's a criminal case.
From RFE/RL's News Desk:
HACKER DECLARES 'INDEPENDENCE' ON RUSSIAN REGION'S WEBSITE
Police in Russia's southern Astrakhan region are investigating a hacker who broke into of the regional parliament’s website and declared independence from the Russian Federation.
The announcement remained on the website for at least two hours on October 7.
It claimed the Astrakhan region has declared independence from Russia and is now called the Lower-Volga People's Republic.
The post claimed it was from a so-called "Extraordinary Committee" consisting of the regional parliament's chairman, the regional governor, the chief of regional security, and a former leader of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, Igor Strelkov.
The hacker appeared to be calling attention to Russian laws against public calls for separatism at a time when the Kremlin supports what it calls "a right for self-determination" for pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine.
(Based on reporting by TASS and Interfax)
CHILDREN SING HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO PUTIN
Get ready for a lot of stuff like this today...
A PERFECT ECOMOMIC STORM LOOMS FOR KREMLIN
There's been a lot of bad economic news in Russia of late. The ruble is plunging, inflation is rising, and growth has slowed to a trickle. Everything that needs to be up is down and everything that needs to be down is up.
But the one figure that should really be causing sleepless nights in the Kremlin is the price of oil -- which is hovering around $90 a barrel. Sure it's an oversimplification, but it's also generally true that the fortunes of any Russian regime tend to fluctuate with the oil price. When energy prices were high in the 1970s, the Soviet Union was aggressive and expansionist. When they tanked in the 1980s, the regime retrenched -- and stagnated.
Just as a thought experiment, imagine what the 1990s would have been like with $100-a-barrel oil. Would Boris Yeltsin have looked so inept? (Ok, he probably would have looked inept, but not so inept.) And would Vladimir Putin have nearly the same amount of swagger if oil was around $20-a-barrel like it was in the 1990s?
Now we know all this, of course. But nevertheless, a couple tweets by Anders Oslund caught my attention this morning:
The first tweet links to a Reuters piece by Edward Mcallister and Timothy Gardner that is well worth reading. Here's the first few grafs:
(Reuters) - As oil production swells, demand falters and prices slide, the global oil market appears on the verge of a pivotal shift from an era of scarcity to one of abundance.
Oil prices have fallen as much as 20 percent since June, despite a host of rising supply risks, leading more investors and traders to consider whether 2015 is the year in which the U.S. shale oil boom finally tips the world into surplus.
While the plunge has rekindled speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may need to cut output for the first time in six years when it meets next month, some analysts are looking much further ahead.
They say a long-anticipated fundamental shift in the market may now be under way, ending a four-year stretch when $100-plus prices were the norm, and opening a new era in which OPEC restraint once again becomes paramount.
Read the whole piece here.
Even before the Ukraine crisis, even before Western sanctions, even before the ruble crashed, Russia appeared to be headed for leaner economic times. With falling oil prices, the situation could become dire.
OIL PRICE TRENDS
MORNING NEWS ROUNDUP, OCTOBER 7
Good morning. Here are some items from RFE/RL's News Desk:
POROSHENKO SAYS NO PEACE IN DONBAS WITHOUT CONTROL OVER BORDER
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in a meeting with a top U.S. official on October 6 that there cannot be peace in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region until government control is re-established over the border with Russia.
Poroshenko, during a meeting with visiting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, stressed the need for Ukrainian border guards to be allowed to return to all areas along the Russian border.
"Without restoring Ukrainian control over the border it is impossible to achieve a peaceful settlement," Poroshenko told Nuland.
Poroshenko also warned that areas in eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian separatists faced a humanitarian disaster this winter if nothing can be done to change the current situation.
Gas, electricity, and food supplies must be resumed, Poroshenko said.
Meanwhile, N ATO's new Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is very concerned about numerous breaches of a month-old cease-fire between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists.
Stoltenberg, speaking in Warsaw on his first foreign trip, said it is important for Russia to use its influence to make sure the separatists adhere to the cease-fire.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's Security Council on October 6 also called the cease-fire in Ukraine very fragile, particularly in the area of Donetsk airport.
Stoltenberg called NATO's "task number one" reinforcing the security of its members and "supporting an independent, democratic, and western-oriented Ukraine."
And he vowed to maintain "a continuous presence and activity in the eastern part of our alliance," potentially calling into question its 1997 promise to Russia that it would not permanently station significant combat forces in the east.
Meanwhile, artillery fire resumed in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk late on October 6, raising more doubts about the ceasefire.
Donetsk, eastern Ukraine's largest city, has been under the separatists' control, with the exception of the Donetsk International Airport, which remains in the hands of the Ukrainian army.
The separatists have been mounting repeated attacks against the airport, but their attempts have been so far unsuccessful.
Pro-Russian authorities in Donetsk said that two civilians were killed and five injured in shelling earlier in the day.
Ukraine's National Security Council spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, said October 6 that one soldier was killed and 13 were injured in fighting in the past 24 hours.
(Based on reporting by UNIAN and Interfax)
MOGHERINI SAYS FAVORS A 'BALANCED APPROACH' TOWARD RUSSIA
Federica Mogherini, the European Union Commissioner-designate for foreign policy has said that the EU needs to handle Russia with a mixture of firmness and tact.
Mogherini, speaking during her three-hour confirmation hearing at the European Parliament, said, "I would say that we need a mix of assertiveness and diplomacy. The balance would also depend on the reaction of the [Russian] bear."
Some eastern European EU states had sharply criticized Mogherini's nomination in August, saying her record as Italian foreign minister and a center-left politician showed she was too soft on Moscow over its role in the Ukraine crisis.
Mogherini said that while relations with Russia are strained at the moment, Russia remains "a strategic country in the world" and the EU needs to consider its ties with Russia "in the next five years."
She added, "it is going to be crucial that we are going to engage with Russia for our own security."
Mogherini also said that the EU needs to pay greater attention to its eastern neighbors.
Mogherini said the EU should offer "full support to Ukraine in terms of security, institutional reform, political process" and economic and energy challenges.
She underlined the importance of "a full implementation" of a cease-fire deal between Ukraine and pro-Russia separatists concluded in Minsk last month.
The Commissioner-designate also said she believed EU sanctions against Russia have been effective from the economic point of view.
She said, "I think that the Russian economy is starting to suffer quite a lot. So if the question is, have the choices we have made so far been effective on the Russian economy? [the answer is] Yes."
Mogherini said the EU needed to support other eastern neighbors such as Moldova and Georgia and work more closely with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus.
RUSSIA CLAIMS TO HAVE FOILED TERRORIST ATTACKS
Russia's National Antiterrorism Committee (NAK) said a security operation in the North Caucasus republic of Daghestan resulted in one militant being killed and large amount of explosive material being seized.
NAK said security forces conducted an operation in the Kyzylyurt district of Daghestan on October 6 and killed Alidibir Asudinov, described as a bomb maker for a local militant group.
A search of a home belonging to the militant group turned up some 170 kilograms of explosive material and a vehicle that was being rigged with enough explosive material to cause a powerful blast.
NAK said the group planned to carry out a series of terrorist attacks in Daghestan.
The operation was conducted one day after a bomber in nearby Chechnya killed five policemen outside a concert hall in the Chechen capital Grozny.
(Based on reporting by TASS and Interfax)