PROPPING UP THE RUBLE IS GETTING EXPENSIVE
DEMONSTRATION AND COUNTER-DEMONSTRATION
RFE/RL's Russian Service has produced this video of a demonstration in support of those imprisoned in the Bolotnaya case. Pro-Kremlin counter demonstrators, some dressed as NATO troops, some wearing St. George ribbons, and one dressed as Uncle Sam, harass them.
PUTIN, PUTIN, GO AWAY
On The Twitter, Ilya Yashin reminds us of a stunt he pulled two years ago.
The tweet reads: Today is Putin's birthday. We expressed our wish for him two years ago.
The sign (in yellow) behind the Kremlin reads: "Putin Go Away."
IS HE GOING TO TRY TO BAN UNSANCTIONED TWEETING?
REMEMBERING ANNA POLITKOVSKAYA
Eight years ago today, investigative journalist Anna Politkovskaya was slain in Moscow. Here's a selection of tweets in her memory. Not enough to do her justice, of course. There are many more at the hashtags #ЦветыАнне & #Politkovskaja
PUTIN DOCUMENTARY (IN FRENCH)
French journalist Nicolas Tonev's documentary on Putin:
THE LOWER-VOLGA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC?
If this happened in Ukraine, the Kremlin would probably say it was a freedom fighter. But since it happened in Astrakhan, Russia, it's a criminal case.
From RFE/RL's News Desk:
HACKER DECLARES 'INDEPENDENCE' ON RUSSIAN REGION'S WEBSITE
Police in Russia's southern Astrakhan region are investigating a hacker who broke into of the regional parliament’s website and declared independence from the Russian Federation.
The announcement remained on the website for at least two hours on October 7.
It claimed the Astrakhan region has declared independence from Russia and is now called the Lower-Volga People's Republic.
The post claimed it was from a so-called "Extraordinary Committee" consisting of the regional parliament's chairman, the regional governor, the chief of regional security, and a former leader of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, Igor Strelkov.
The hacker appeared to be calling attention to Russian laws against public calls for separatism at a time when the Kremlin supports what it calls "a right for self-determination" for pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine.
(Based on reporting by TASS and Interfax)
CHILDREN SING HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO PUTIN
Get ready for a lot of stuff like this today...
A PERFECT ECOMOMIC STORM LOOMS FOR KREMLIN
There's been a lot of bad economic news in Russia of late. The ruble is plunging, inflation is rising, and growth has slowed to a trickle. Everything that needs to be up is down and everything that needs to be down is up.
But the one figure that should really be causing sleepless nights in the Kremlin is the price of oil -- which is hovering around $90 a barrel. Sure it's an oversimplification, but it's also generally true that the fortunes of any Russian regime tend to fluctuate with the oil price. When energy prices were high in the 1970s, the Soviet Union was aggressive and expansionist. When they tanked in the 1980s, the regime retrenched -- and stagnated.
Just as a thought experiment, imagine what the 1990s would have been like with $100-a-barrel oil. Would Boris Yeltsin have looked so inept? (Ok, he probably would have looked inept, but not so inept.) And would Vladimir Putin have nearly the same amount of swagger if oil was around $20-a-barrel like it was in the 1990s?
Now we know all this, of course. But nevertheless, a couple tweets by Anders Oslund caught my attention this morning:
The first tweet links to a Reuters piece by Edward Mcallister and Timothy Gardner that is well worth reading. Here's the first few grafs:
(Reuters) - As oil production swells, demand falters and prices slide, the global oil market appears on the verge of a pivotal shift from an era of scarcity to one of abundance.
Oil prices have fallen as much as 20 percent since June, despite a host of rising supply risks, leading more investors and traders to consider whether 2015 is the year in which the U.S. shale oil boom finally tips the world into surplus.
While the plunge has rekindled speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may need to cut output for the first time in six years when it meets next month, some analysts are looking much further ahead.
They say a long-anticipated fundamental shift in the market may now be under way, ending a four-year stretch when $100-plus prices were the norm, and opening a new era in which OPEC restraint once again becomes paramount.
Read the whole piece here.
Even before the Ukraine crisis, even before Western sanctions, even before the ruble crashed, Russia appeared to be headed for leaner economic times. With falling oil prices, the situation could become dire.
OIL PRICE TRENDS