What Would The Russian Capture Of Pokrovsk Mean For The Ukraine War?
Ukrainian soldiers of the air-defense unit of the 24th Mechanized Brigade conduct drills in the embattled Donetsk region on December 14.
POKROVSK, Ukraine -- Pokrovsk once buzzed with life, but on this cold, snowy December day, it feels like a ghost town.
The streets of the once-60,000-strong community were eerily empty, with barely a soul or a car in sight. The only sound is the occasional crack of gunfire and the thunderous boom of distant artillery.
Once a thriving industrial hub in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region where cafes hummed with chatter and the streets pulsed with energy, Pokrovsk is now the latest Ukrainian city caught in the death grip of Russian forces.
Ever since Ukraine's counteroffensive to drive out invading Russian forces culminated with little success in October 2023, Russian troops have slowly pushed westward, capturing the Donetsk city of Avdiyivka and then the town of Vuldehar. Russia currently controls about 60 percent of Donetsk.
Now, reportedly just a few kilometers from the edge of town, Russian troops could be on the verge of taking Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub near the current front line.
"It would be a substantial blow to the Ukrainians, and I'm not sure one that they can stop from happening," David Silbey, a professor of military history at Cornell University in the United States, told RFE/RL.
"If they lose it, they lose that kind of fairly straightforward access to their defensive lines, and that makes it much harder to build up forces there and keep fighting," he said.
Pokrovsk is strategically significant because it serves as a major transportation hub, is close to the front lines, and serves as a supply hub for military operations in the Donbas region.
The rate of Russia's territorial gain in Donetsk has been increasing every month since August despite a surge in Western military aid, raising concerns about a potential Russian breakthrough.
The loss of Pokrovsk would further open the door to one of Russia's main war aims: capturing the rest of the Donetsk region, one of four that Moscow claims to have annexed in November 2022 following a fabricated election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin in June said he would agree to a cease-fire and peace talks only if Ukraine withdrew from the four regions, which also include Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson, and renounced ambitions to join NATO.
Marathon Offensive
But according to George Barros, a military analyst at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, Russia may not have the resources for the time being to turn a potential tactical victory in Pokrovsk into an operational advance deeper into Ukraine.
Russia lost more than 500 tanks and 1,000 fighting vehicles -- enough hardware to equip five mechanized divisions -- as well as tens of thousands of troops during the yearlong, 45-kilometer march westward to the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
"What we're seeing here is the end of a very, very long Russian marathon where the Russians have spent an eye-watering amount of resources to advance over a very objectively small amount of territory," he said.
If the Russians do seize Pokrovsk, the current campaign will likely culminate due to force and resource constraints, Barros says.
He says Russian forces have been unable to capture the strategic hilltop town of Chasiv Yar following their victory in nearby Bakhmut, one of the deadliest battles of the war, in part due to exhaustion.
Russia's extraordinary losses on the way to Pokrovsk could open up an opportunity for Ukraine, Barros adds.
"If the Ukrainians are properly resourced...and they can get more men to the front that are well-equipped -- this would actually be the ideal time to counterattack into a tired and exhausted adversary and inflict some reverses on the Russians," Barros said.
Ukraine's Problems
However, it has been recruitment and training problems perhaps above all else that have allowed Russian forces to cut across eastern Ukraine this year, military experts say.
For months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's government delayed submitting legislation to boost recruitment amid fears of a popular backlash, even as troop strength at the front lines degraded due to lack of rotation.
The eventual bills, which finally passed parliament in April, also lowered the draft eligibility age from 27 to 25.
The hesitation over the draft bills coincided with a six-month pause in U.S. military aid that further weakened Ukrainian frontline forces earlier this year.
Russia now no longer has a significant advantage in firepower and unmanned aerial vehicles as the U.S. rushes ammunition to the country and Ukraine cranks up its drone production.
Fear And Hope As Battle For Ukraine’s Pokrovsk Looms
1/17A woman walks through a suburb of Pokrovsk in early December.
In the early days of the full-scale Russian invasion my colleagues and I had based ourselves in Pokrovsk, where cafes, restaurants, and shopping centers offered a respite from the front lines. Now we are watching it die. Since 2022, I’ve seen many cities overtaken by war. Some fall quickly and disappear from the headlines, others hold on to the bitter end: Syevyerodonetsk, Lysychansk, Soledar, and others familiar only to the military and journalists. Now Pokrovsk is on that list.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
2/17A woman rides past a cinema with a banner declaring “Pokrovsk -- the strength of the Cossack clan.”
A curfew is in place in Pokrovsk from three in the afternoon until 11 a.m. the next day. As soon as the curfew is lifted we park our car and walk through the city streets. Only a handful of people are out and about. In the background, artillery can be heard working to the south and east, where Russian forces are advancing from both directions.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
3/17Many shops here are closed and apparently abandoned. Svitlana Yaroslavovna (pictured) operates one that is still open, selling sweets, milk and sausage. “When it’s quiet, I get nervous. It feels like maybe the military are surrendering us. I hope they don’t,” she confides after making us coffee. “Because [the nearby settlements of] Novohrodivka and Selydove were both surrendered very quickly even though there were fortifications there. I’m not a soldier, but I wish they hadn’t allowed them to fall."
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
4/17"Dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles in Pokrovsk.
Suppliers for Yaroslavovna's grocery shop still come every weekday, she tells us, but some drivers are afraid to come into the city center. “We meet them behind the bridge and transfer the products, then drive them in ourselves.”
If Russian troops keep pushing closer, Yaroslavovna says, “I’ll close the shop and flee with the dogs and cats that I’m looking after here. I definitely won’t live here under the Russians, if the front gets any closer. But for now, I’ll be here for as long as I can."
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
5/17The city slowly comes to life as we continue walking, people are appearing, carrying water and food. A makeshift market is operating nearby. It feels almost like any normal winter morning in a provincial eastern town, only the booming of nearby explosions offers a constant reminder of the situation in Pokrovsk.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
6/17In some suburbs there is still electricity and gas, but central heating no longer operates in Pokrovsk. People warm their apartments with electric heaters or gas burners.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
7/17The still smoldering remains of a building in Pokrovsk that was wiped out by a Russian glide bomb.
Donetskoblhaz JSC, the company that supplies gas and electricity to Pokrovsk says it is becoming increasingly difficult for their repair crews to work amid frequent shelling. The company announced that, as of December 12, it would suspend gas supplies due to “the consequences of hostilities on the gas distribution system.”
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
8/17A Pokrovsk resident collects water from one of a handful of supply points in the city.
One of the biggest challenges for Pokrovsk's residents is sourcing water. Locals say that Russian forces destroyed water pumping stations outside the city in August 2022, and since then most water has been sourced from tankers organized by local government and aid organizations.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
9/17Anton, who came to collect water on his day off.
The local man evacuated his family but has remained to work at a mine in Pokrovsk that was still in operation in early December. “I think everyone is considering leaving. Only those who are waiting [for a Russian takeover] are not," he says. "I hope [Ukraine's military] will drive them away, and we can continue to live here."
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
10/17Vasyl, an elderly local crossing an empty street in Pokrovsk.
“My friends have gone to the Dnipropetrovsk region,” he tells us. “The poor are suffering everywhere. No one needs people. This is a fight for territory, not people. I am 81 years old. I think if [the Russians] restore order there will be heat, gas, and so on. I am being very frank, but, people will have one hell of a time surviving [until then].”
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
11/17A printed sign announces “pharmacy working” in Pokrovsk.
Along with pharmacies, cafes, and a bookstore, the biggest surprise was an Apple Store that was still operating in early December. Though perhaps as I’m writing this it has already closed down.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
12/17Bells in the cathedral begin to ring, calling the faithful to prayer and momentarily drowning out the sounds of war. The bells frighten a flock of pigeons which flap into the air then settle on the Soviet-era apartment block whose windows are boarded up with chipboard.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
13/17A local woman walking her dog.
Even after covering the war for years, moments like this, showing hope for life amid destruction and death are always surprising. The animals seem to be accustomed to the backdrop of explosions and show no signs of fear.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
14/17"We live, we keep hoping,” Valentyna Vasylivna (pictured) tells us as she walks through her war-damaged city. “I have a pension of 2,700 hryvnias ($65) per month. Where would I go? My apartment walls keep me warm, this is my home.”
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
15/17At Pokrovsk Railway Station the platforms are empty. This homeless man was trying to stay warm in a sleeping bag, and to get some sleep.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
16/17A man pushes a load of firewood. Behind him is the road towards Shevchenko, where Russian forces are currently advancing from the south.
Some civilians we spoke to told us of friends and neighbours who are returning to Pokrovsk despite the city's precarious situation. Some couldn't find work elsewhere and ran out of money; others couldn't get used to living away from their hometown. Many say the only state help that registered refugees receive is a payment of 11,000 hryvna, ($265) and those people who leave by their own means cannot even count on this.
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
17/17A road sign for Pokrovsk on the outskirts of the city.
We leave Pokrovsk with heavy hearts. It seems likely we could return soon to the city to film street battles. We remember the words of shopkeeper Svitlana Yaroslavovna: "I hold on to my faith in God, and the armed forces of Ukraine, this is where I place my hope."
Russian forces have neared the outskirts of Pokrovsk, a strategically important transportation and logistics hub in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Once home to more than 60,000 people before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, only a fraction of this population now remains in the embattled city. Photojournalist Serhiy Nuzhnenko recently visited Pokrovsk with a colleague from RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities and talked to some residents who are still living there.
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However, the manpower shortage continues all along the front as new recruits try to avoid the infantry amid high casualty rates.
Ukraine has been rushing as many troops into Pokrovsk as they can muster, including from other branches of the armed forces, to prevent its fall. But it comes at the expense of their defense lines elsewhere, Cornell professor Silbey says.
Ukraine doesn't have a chance to rebuild its forces because they are under continuous attack, he says.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is slowly being pushed back in Russia's Kursk region with the help of North Korean troops. Ukraine seized a slice of the Kursk region in a surprise incursion in August but has given up about half its territorial gains.
Kyiv's reported aim in Kursk was to draw Russian troops away from Ukraine and to exchange Russian land for its own when a future peace deal was concluded.
Amid the shortage of troops in the east of the country, the Kursk operation has been controversial, with some experts saying it didn't succeed in pulling many Russian troops away from the front lines in Donetsk.
Should Russian forces seize Pokrovsk, Silbey says, they will likely pause to consolidate their position before pushing north toward the city of Kramatorsk to seize the next major road network in Donetsk.
He says Putin may push Russian forces to the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk -- which make up the Donbas region -- before seeking a deal with Ukraine.
Russia can't sustain a push deeper into Ukraine, he says, pointing out that Moscow is pulling Soviet tanks from storage -- some made as early as the 1950s -- because it can't replace its losses.
Russia is "winning, but this is destroying them as a military power. This is the last superpower war they'll ever fight, because they're using up all the stores they had left from when they were the Soviet Union."
Todd Prince is a senior correspondent for RFE/RL based in Washington, D.C. He lived in Russia from 1999 to 2016, working as a reporter for Bloomberg News and an investment adviser for Merrill Lynch. He has traveled extensively around Russia, Ukraine, and Central Asia.
Oleksiy Prodayvoda is a correspondent for Current Time, the Russian-language network run by RFE/RL. Prior to joining RFE/RL, he worked for some of the most important media outlets in Ukraine, covering the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in Kyiv, Russia's seizure of Crimea, and the beginning of the war in eastern Ukraine in 2014. Since Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022, he has been reporting from the front lines in the east and south of the country.
![Many shops here are closed and apparently abandoned. Svitlana Yaroslavovna (pictured) operates one that is still open, selling sweets, milk and sausage. “When it’s quiet, I get nervous. It feels like maybe the military are surrendering us. I hope they don’t,” she confides after making us coffee. “Because [the nearby settlements of] Novohrodivka and Selydove were both surrendered very quickly even though there were fortifications there. I’m not a soldier, but I wish they hadn’t allowed them to fall." ](https://gdb.rferl.org/07682f19-0cca-4699-bb49-de631d02fd62_w1024_q10_s.jpg)
![Anton, who came to collect water on his day off.<br />
<br />
The local man evacuated his family but has remained to work at a mine in Pokrovsk that was still in operation in early December. “I think everyone is considering leaving. Only those who are waiting [for a Russian takeover] are not," he says. "I hope [Ukraine's military] will drive them away, and we can continue to live here."](https://gdb.rferl.org/55cfa829-1dc1-446b-ad5b-7f77dc02716d_w1024_q10_s.jpg)
![Vasyl, an elderly local crossing an empty street in Pokrovsk.<br />
<br />
“My friends have gone to the Dnipropetrovsk region,” he tells us. “The poor are suffering everywhere. No one needs people. This is a fight for territory, not people. I am 81 years old. I think if [the Russians] restore order there will be heat, gas, and so on. I am being very frank, but, people will have one hell of a time surviving [until then].” ](https://gdb.rferl.org/8610c9a8-c9a7-426e-9426-334a2bc9176d_w1024_q10_s.jpg)
