U.S. Says New Intelligence Shows Russian Plans To Create Pretext For Invading Ukraine
A Ukrainian serviceman checks the situation at a front-line position near the city of Donetsk.
The United States has obtained intelligence indicating that Russia has formed a plan to stage a false attack, which would serve as justification for an invasion of Ukraine, according to the U.S. State Department and U.S. officials quoted in news reports on February 3.
The officials said the plan was revealed in declassified intelligence shared with Ukrainian officials and European allies in recent days.
The plan potentially included videos showing a staged attack depicting the graphic aftermath of an explosion, including equipment appearing to belong to Ukraine or allied nations, said an unidentified official.
"This video, if released, could provide Putin the spark he needs to initiate and justify military operations against Ukraine,” the official said. This would include the possibility of having separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine invite a Russian intervention.
The U.S. deputy national-security adviser, Jonathan Finer, said in an interview that the U.S. didn’t know for sure Russia would take such a route, "but we know that this is an option under consideration."
Finer told U.S. broadcaster MSNBC that it would involve actors playing mourners and corpses to represent bodies of people purportedly killed.
State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed that U.S. intelligence has gathered the information. He told reporters that the United States is publicizing it to lay bare the extent of Russia's destabilizing actions toward Ukraine and to dissuade Russia from continuing what Price said was a dangerous campaign.
In Photos: New Images Capture Russia Massing Weaponry Around Ukraine
1/24In Crimea, a new deployment of troops and equipment is visible at the Oktyabrskoye airfield north of Simferopol on February 10.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
2/24Armored vehicles of a new deployment are visible in Slavne on Crimea's northwest coast on February 9.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
3/24Equipment and new deployments are visible in Novoozernoye, Crimea, on February 9.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
4/24A new deployment of troops, vehicles, and helicopters was identified on February 10 at the Zyabrovka airfield near Homel, Belarus, less than 25 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
5/24An overview of deployment areas near Rechytsa on February 9. Rechytsa is in Belarus's southeastern Homel region, some 55 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
6/24Armored vehicles and transporters arrive at Russia's Kursk training area on February 9, about 100 kilometers east of Ukraine.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
7/24Multiple battle groups and troop housing areas are visible at the Kursk training area on February 9.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
8/24Six SU-25 ground-attack aircraft are shown at Luninets airfield in Belarus. The image was taken on February 4. Luninets is in the southwestern Brest region, about 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
9/24Probable S-400 air-defense deployments at the Luninets airfield on February 4.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
10/24Probable SS-26 Iskander and multiple-rocket launchers deployed northwest of Yelsk on February 4. Yelsk is in Belarus's Homel region, about 20 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
11/24Troops and logistics-material-support units northwest of Yelsk on February 4.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
12/24A troop-housing area and vehicle park in Rechytsa on February 4.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
13/24A cluster of vehicles that reportedly includes truck-launched Iskander missile systems at the Osipovichi military training area, just south of Minsk. The image was taken on February 1.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
14/24A wider view of the Osipovichi military facility on February 1. Russian-made Iskander missiles are capable of precise strikes on targets up to 500 kilometers away.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
15/24An overview of vehicles and housing for troops near Baranovichi, Belarus, on January 29. Russia has placed troops and equipment inside Belarus in recent days as the countries prepare to hold joint military exercises.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
16/24A crowded military base in Bakhchisaray on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula on February 1.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
17/24Massed vehicles at a military base in Novoozernoye, Crimea, as photographed by satellite on February 1.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
18/24Military tents and armored vehicles in Yevpatoria, Crimea, on February 1.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
19/24An older satellite image shows snow-dusted Russian military vehicles parked in Yelnya, Russia, on January 19. Yelnya is in Russia's northwestern Smolensk region, around 120 kilometers from the border with Belarus and 260 kilometers from Ukraine.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
20/24Armored personnel carriers and trucks at Klimovo on January 19. The Klimovo military storage facility is located just 35 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
21/24Tents and housing for Russian troops in Yelnya on January 19.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
22/24Russian tanks and artillery-support equipment, some of which was apparently in use recently, parked in Yelnya on January 19.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
23/24Military equipment massed at the Klimovo storage facility on January 19. Older imagery from Google Maps of the same locationshows a fraction of the military vehicles present.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
24/24Military hardware at a railway yard in Klimovo on January 19. Recent videos have captured massive amounts of military hardware being transported by rail in western Russia.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
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Officials did not release any direct evidence of the plan or say how they learned of it because they did not want to risk compromising their sources and methods. It also was not clear that senior Russian officials had approved the operation.
A British government official quoted by The New York Times said the United Kingdom had done its own analysis of the intelligence and had high confidence that Russia was planning to engineer a pretext to blame Ukraine for an attack. The details of the intelligence, the official said, are “credible and extremely concerning.”
The allegation is the latest by the U.S. and Britain that Russia is plotting to use a false pretext to go to war against Ukraine after amassing more than 100,000 troops near its border with its neighbor.
In December the White House accused Moscow of developing a “false-flag” operation to create pretext for an invasion, and Britain recently named Ukrainians it accused of having ties to Russian intelligence officers plotting to overthrow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
With reporting by Reuters, AP, MSNBC, and The New York Times
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