A conflict that has simmered in Yemen for years has flared in recent weeks, with consequences that could reach far beyond the Middle East.
The Houthi rebels have seized nearly all of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, giving the Iran-aligned militant group control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a key chokepoint for global trade.
The Houthis have also intensified attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, the group’s foe and the world’s biggest oil exporter. Riyadh has been forced to temporarily shut down a crucial oil pipeline after a drone attack that it blamed on a pro-Iranian militia in Iraq.
The escalation in the Houthi-Saudi conflict has contributed to a recent surge in oil prices, which rose to $110 on September 15, the highest in months, before falling slightly.
Experts warn that a prolonged shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West pipeline or a Houthi attempt to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which accounts for around 6 percent of the world’s seaborne-traded oil, could send shockwaves around the world.
Even before the recent escalation in hostilities in Yemen, energy markets were rattled and the global economy was upended by the Iran war, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil and gas artery.
Although major fighting has been halted in the war that began in late February, Tehran and Washington continue to trade sporadic strikes, including on shipping.
“It continues to be a dynamic of two conflicts: the Saudi-Houthi conflict and the US-Iran conflict, both of which are putting pressure on international oil markets and the international oil supply,” said Gregory Brew, an oil expert and senior analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group.
American investment bank Goldman Sachs has warned that global oil prices could reach $120 a barrel if the Iran and Yemen conflicts continue.
Avoiding A 'Quagmire In Yemen'
Scores have been killed in Yemen since the Houthis launched a lightning offensive against the country’s internationally recognized government last week, capturing the key port city of Mokha and islands in the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia, which backs Yemen’s government, has carried out air strikes against Houthi targets while the rebels have launched drones and missiles at the kingdom.
Riyadh has pleaded for military support from the United States, but President Donald Trump appears to have rebuffed those calls. The Houthis agreed a cease-fire with Washington last year after a monthslong US bombing campaign.
The Houthis have given Washington assurances that they will not block the Bab al-Mandab Strait or attack international shipping in the Red Sea, except for Saudi vessels, according to reports. US officials met Houthi leaders in neighboring Oman on September 15.
“From the US perspective, the logic is very clear,” said Thomas Juneau, a Middle East expert and professor at the University of Ottawa. With the US at war with Iran in the Persian Gulf and less than two months to go to midterm elections, “President Trump clearly doesn't want another quagmire in Yemen.”
“From the Houthi perspective, I think there's also a clear rationale." Juneau added. "In 2025, when the US hit the Houthis, it hit them hard and it hurt them and it imposed a cost on the Houthis.”
Saudis Facing 'Catastrophic Scenarios'
The events in Yemen pose a major setback for Saudi Arabia, which launched a devastating military intervention in support of Yemen’s government in 2015, a year after the Houthis seized northwestern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa.
Riyadh’s allies in Yemen have been routed, and the kingdom is facing growing attacks from the Houthis as well as others well as from other armed groups in the region that are backed by Iran.
The damage to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has also throttled the country’s ability to export oil, which has put pressure on global supplies. It is unclear when the pipeline -- – the main alternative route for Riyadh to export its oil after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz -- will go back online.
The world will lose around 120 million barrels of oil if the pipeline is out of service for a month, according to commodity intelligence company Kpler.
“Right now, it is just the convergence of catastrophic scenarios for the Saudis with the Strait of Hormuz closed almost completely, with the Bab al-Mandab at least partially closed, and with the East-West pipeline having been damaged,” said Juneau.
