Fears are growing in Azerbaijan, Iran's northwestern neighbor, that the South Caucasus country could become embroiled in the US-Israeli war on Tehran that is widening in scope.
Baku accused Iran of firing drones that struck an airport and school in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan autonomous region on March 5, calling it an "act of terror" and vowing to respond. Tehran denied it fired the drones that injured two people.
The incident has heightened concerns in Azerbaijan -- which has close military, economic, and energy ties to Israel, Tehran's archenemy -- that it could become a target of the Islamic republic's expanding response to the massive US-Israeli air campaign launched on February 28.
Iran has retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US military and diplomatic facilities and striking key energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Tehran's aim, experts say, is to expand the war and increase the cost of the conflict for Washington and its allies.
"This is a dangerous situation," said Jasur Mammadov, a Germany-based Azerbaijani military analyst. "Azerbaijan has a long border with Iran," and if Turkey, Baku's closest ally, is not involved, "it would be very difficult to defend the country," he added.
SEE ALSO: Aliyev Calls Iran Drone Strike In Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan Region 'Act Of Terror'Much of the concern in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich country of around 10 million people, is centered around fears that Iran could target its energy infrastructure, including pipelines and production facilities.
"Iran has developed drone technology capable of flying as far as 1,000 kilometers," said Mammadov, referring to a long-range version of the Shahed drone that can travel around 1,500 kilometers. "That means it could easily reach Azerbaijan's energy infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, as well as any city."
Experts say Baku's close ties with Israel make it a potential Iranian target. Azerbaijan, which shares an around 700-kilomter border with Iran, is a major supplier of oil to Israel. Israel, in turn, is a seller of arms and drones to Baku.
"If Iranian energy infrastructure is struck [by Israel], Tehran could look at Azerbaijan's energy facilities as potential targets, given that the Israelis get so much of their energy from Azerbaijan," US-based Iran analyst Alex Vatanka said before the war began.
Despite its growing ties with Israel ties, Baku has repeatedly said it will not allow its territory or airspace to be used by any country to launch military operations against Iran.
Your browser doesn’t support HTML5
More Videos Show Apparent Drone Attack On Nakhchivan Airport, School Area
Iran has long been critical of Israel's presence in Azerbaijan. Tehran has accused Baku of cooperating with Israeli intelligence -- allegations Azerbaijan denies.
A day before the drone attack in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan region, President Ilham Aliyev made a rare visit to the Iranian Embassy in Baku to offer his condolences on the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli air strike in Tehran on February 28.
But on March 5, Aliyev's sentiment shifted.
"Iranian officials must provide an explanation to the Azerbaijani side, an apology must be offered, and those who committed this terrorist act must be held criminally liable," Aliyev said during a meeting of his security council.
Tehran denied it launched a drone attack on Azerbaijan. "The Islamic republic of Iran... denies its armed forces launched a drone toward the Republic of Azerbaijan," the general staff of the armed forces said in a statement, according to state TV, which blamed Israel.
Farhad Mammadov, an analyst close to the Azerbaijani government, said the drone attack will force Baku to take measures for its defense and begin consultations with Turkey.
Azerbaijan and Turkey share deep historical and cultural ties. In 2021, the sides expanded their "one nation, two states" partnership, under which both sides pledged to help the other if attacked.
During Azerbaijan's wars with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, Turkey supplied weapons to Baku, including advanced drones. Yerevan accused Turkey of direct involvement in the conflict, which Ankara and Baku denied.
Turkey's Foreign Ministry on March 5 condemned the drone attacks on Azerbaijan, calling for such attacks to end "immediately."
A day earlier, Turkey said a NATO defense system intercepted a ballistic missile in its border region. Iran rejected accusations that it launched a ballistic missile toward NATO-member Turkey.
"Turkey itself could feel threatened and may align closely with Azerbaijan," said Ata Mohammad Tabrizi, an Iranian analyst based in Turkey.
RFE/RL's Azerbaijani service contributed to this report.