As Ukraine War Enters Fifth Year, Europe Faces Hard Truth On China

BRUSSELS -- Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western policymakers have debated whether diplomatic pressure and sanctions could persuade China to curb its support for Moscow.

But as the war enters its fifth year, China's support has deepened, providing Russia with a vital economic lifeline through energy purchases, critical minerals for drone production, and a steady flow of dual-use goods such as microelectronics and industrial equipment, senior European officials told RFE/RL.

"That's why we have a constant dialogue with the Chinese to point them toward this unavoidable point," said an EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Officials and analysts who spoke to RFE/RL say China has stopped short of providing direct military aid but has steadily expanded economic, technological, and diplomatic cooperation with Moscow. That deepening relationship, they said, is likely to grow further this year and has made efforts by European governments to influence Beijing increasingly difficult.

Analysts say Chinese officials were initially concerned about an economic fallout from the war but have since concluded that the conflict benefits Beijing by keeping Europe focused on Ukraine rather than Asia. Any predicted economic impact has also so far been minimal for Beijing, confined to small independent oil refineries and private companies without major linkages to the broader economy.

"China doesn't expect any major consequences because there haven't really been any yet," Eva Seiwert, a senior analyst at the Berlin-based think tank MERICS, told RFE/RL. "China knows that Europe likely won't sanction it fully and aims to keep its support below a threshold that won't trigger a larger response."

Avoiding Full Western Retaliation

Since February 2022, Brussels has added Chinese companies to blacklists, viewing them as part of supply chains or financial flows linked to Russia's battlefield efforts. The list is expected to expand further in the EU's upcoming 20th sanctions package, which will be made public on February 24, the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine.

A draft version seen by RFE/RL shows it contains several new Chinese entities.

But those measures have not curtailed Chinese support. Even as India, a top buyer of Russian oil, recently began to slash its purchases, Beijing has stepped in to fill the void. According to data analytics firm Kpler, Russia's oil imports to China reached a record high in February after increasing over the last three months.

Benjamin Schmitt, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Kleinman Center for Energy Policy and Perry World House, told RFE/RL that "there simply hasn't been sufficient sanctions and technology export controls enforcement to match the stated policy goal of curbing Beijing's support of Moscow."

He said the gap reflects a broader problem: Sanctions have expanded faster than Western governments' ability to enforce them.

"This means that the policy impact of both sanctions and export controls often lags badly behind the scope of the sanctions policy enacted by lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic," said Schmitt, who is a former US State Department official.

China now accounts for more than 40 percent of Russia's oil exports and has become the main supplier of high-priority dual-use goods. On top of that, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has helped counter diplomatic pressure against Russian President Vladimir Putin by interacting with him 19 times through in-person meetings or phone calls since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Artur Kharitonov, president of the Liberal Democratic League of Ukraine, told RFE/RL that because of the flow of goods and technologies from China, "Russia can continue this war for as long as necessary."

The two countries have also sought to bypass Western sanctions by shifting trade into rubles and yuan. Russian officials say 99 percent of bilateral trade in 2025 used the two currencies.

The EU has also avoided sweeping sectoral sanctions on Beijing due to the strong economic ties between the bloc and China.

EU–China trade reached about $785 billion in 2024, underscoring why European leaders have been cautious about sweeping sanctions on Beijing.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told RFE/RL this leaves Europe somewhat dependent on China and forced to decide between protecting its economy or "shooting itself in the foot" by hitting China harder with sanctions and export controls.

Tsahkna visited Beijing in November as part of an Estonian delegation, and he said Tallinn and other European capitals continue to push Chinese officials to influence Putin and his actions toward Ukraine.

Europe's China Dilemma

European officials have argued that only by engaging with Xi can they hope to influence his position on security issues.

"In all my dialogue with [Chinese Foreign Minister] Wang Yi, our prime minister's with Xi Jinping, and even publicly, we have always said that we expect [Beijing] to use their influence," Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel told RFE/RL.

But amid trade tensions with Washington, European leaders have recently stepped up engagement with Beijing, with French President Emmanuel Macron traveling to China at the end of 2025, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer visiting this year, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz set to visit this month.

US President Donald Trump is also expected to meet Xi in China in April.

Wang looked to capitalize on any diplomatic openings when he spoke at the Munich Security Conference on February 14 and said China is not a party that's directly involved and "doesn't have the final say" on any political settlement in Ukraine, but that Beijing "will, in our own way, give our full support for the peace process."

Wang met with multiple European officials in Munich, including Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha, who told RFE/RL that Kyiv is "interested in further developing this track of mutually beneficial cooperation" with Beijing. China is Ukraine's top individual trading partner, with $21 billion in trade last year.

"China doesn't want to see Russia defeated, but they also don't want to have a triumphant Russia next to them," Gunnar Wiegand, a former senior EU official and fellow at the German Marshall Fund, told RFE/RL. "So they don't want to give up their links to Ukraine, and still underline that they support Ukraine's territorial integrity."

China and Russia's relationship has shifted over recent decades, from Cold War rivalry to closer alignment under Xi and Putin.

Western officials said distrust remains between Beijing and Moscow but their shared opposition to Western pressure outweighs those differences.

"China is not rescuing Russia, but at the same time it is not rescuing Ukraine, either," Vita Holod, a board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, told RFE/RL. "It's a kind of strategic Chinese neutrality."