Fred Fleitz, vice chair of the America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Security, told RFE/RL he is “cautiously optimistic” about possible US-Iran talks on ending the war but said Washington is reinforcing its military position to pressure Tehran into a deal.
Fleitz, a former chief of staff at the US National Security Council, said the United States appears to be seeking out Iranian officials prepared to end the conflict, while trying to work around hard-liners from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, possibly through parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and regional intermediaries.
Fleitz, who spoke to RFE/RL's Regional Director Amra Zejneli Loxha, said Iran’s first public response to the reported US 15-point plan should not be overread, describing it as a sign of divisions within the Iranian leadership. He added that if diplomacy collapses and Iran keeps threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, US President Donald Trump could escalate by targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Washington has reportedly sent Iran a 15-point proposal that includes a cease-fire, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, dismantling Iran's nuclear program, ending support for proxy groups, and lifting sanctions on Iran.
Iranian media reported that Tehran laid out its own conditions for ending the war.
RFE/RL: Mr. Fleitz, there appears to be some limited momentum toward negotiations between the US and Iran. Are you optimistic that these talks could lead anywhere?
Fred Fleitz: Well, I'm cautiously optimistic. And I should add that it's the first inclination or preference of President Trump to use diplomacy ahead of military force. And I think he's looking for a way to find responsible Iranian leaders who would like to stop the violence, would like to stop the war, stop the bombing.
And I think what we're trying to do is to try to get around the Revolutionary Guards radicals and probably radicals with the supreme leader. And I don't really know [if] the supreme leader is running the country. That's why I believe we've been working reportedly with the speaker of the Iranian parliament to see if a negotiated settlement can come about to end the war and to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf
RFE/RL: When President Trump says that the US is talking to the “right people” in Iran, who exactly does he mean? Is it the parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf?
Fleitz: I've heard reports that's who it is. There could be other people. The problem is that this government is fragmented. There are elements of the government that are fanatics, such as the Revolutionary Guards, who may try to kill officials who want to negotiate peace. So that might be why the president has been hesitant to name exactly who the US is dealing with.
RFE/RL: If there is still no clear public Iranian counterpart, how confident can Washington really be that it is speaking to people who can actually deliver a deal?
Fleitz: Well, I'm not in the government, but I think that our State Department has a good deal of sources. We're also working with Turkey, with Pakistan, with Egypt, other states who have connections in Iran. So I can't tell you how we know this, but I believe that the US government actually is in touch with people who can speak on behalf of the Iranian government.
RFE/RL: There have been reports that Washington has sent Iran a 15-point proposal that includes a cease-fire, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, dismantling Iran's nuclear program, ending support for proxy groups, and lifting sanctions on Iran. What do you think of the prospects that the 15-point plan can lead to peace?
Fleitz: Well, it states the objectives that the US would like to promote stability in the region. And it includes things that the Iranian regime has refused to agree to. It has refused to negotiate in good faith. It wants to keep enriching uranium. It won't give up its missile program. We now know it has an enormous missile program that can strike Western Europe, possibly Paris and London. These are unacceptable threats to global security. And if there's going to be a negotiated settlement, they're going to have to be addressed.
RFE/RL: What are some of the most contentious issues and, on the other hand, the lowest-hanging fruit?
Fleitz: Well, I guess the contentious issue is to try to find a way to quickly secure the Strait of Hormuz. I hope Iran will quickly agree to give up its pursuit of uranium enrichment and give up the buried containers of near-weapons-grade uranium hexafluoride, which could be used to fuel a nuclear weapon. I'm not sure what the hanging fruit would be. I think the biggest challenge is to get the Iranian regime to agree to anything. I think we're still in the process of getting them to agree to actually negotiate. I think we've made some progress with some initial queries, but we need to get an Iranian representative [to] sit down with the US or with an intermediary to start talking.
RFE/RL: To what extent do you think trust can be a problem given that in previous talks they were interrupted by US attacks?
Fleitz: Well, Iran is making that accusation that they don't trust the US, because they were engaged with talks with the US last June and then in January. And in the middle of the talks, supposedly the US began -- the US or Israel -- began attacking Iran.
That's not exactly accurate. The Iranians were refusing to negotiate in good faith and were facing ultimatums by the United States. They knew that. They thought they could drag out talks indefinitely. When they tried to do that, military operations began. And I think the Iranian government is concerned right now, whatever is left of it, because there are American troops on the way, Marines and paratroopers. I think that strengthens America's hand. But I believe if we begin negotiating in good faith and Iran does too, there'll be a good agreement.
RFE/RL: If the US is moving toward diplomacy, why is it also reinforcing its military presence in the region with additional troop deployments?
Fleitz: I believe that President Trump wants to try diplomacy, but he doesn't know whether it will work out. And I believe by sending more troops to the region, he's strengthening his hand and putting more pressure on Iranian officials to make a deal.
RFE/RL: The first statements are now coming out of Iran on the 15-point plan. Based on reporting, Iran is demanding concrete guarantees to prevent a recurrence of war. It reviewed the proposal and, as reported, it considers it excessive. Iran says its defensive operations will continue until its conditions are met. It demands clear determination and guaranteed payment for war damage. The first condition for the end of war is “end of attacks and assassinations.” What are your first thoughts?
Fleitz: I don't know how true that is. I also heard the Iranians claiming that there were no negotiations, that they hadn't been in touch with the US. A lot of what we're hearing reflects fracturing within the Iranian government and people who don't want any negotiations. We will see what happens when there are talks between the US and an Iranian representative or an Iranian representative and an intermediary negotiating on behalf of the United States. So, I don't read much into that. And there's not going to be reparations. Iran's responsible for this conflict.
RFE/RL: So, if these talks fail, how do you see the situation evolving?
Fleitz: I believe that if these talks fail and if Iran continues to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that President Trump may carry through with his threat to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure. And I think Iranian leaders want to prevent that.
RFE/RL: Last June, when we spoke, you said you were concerned about who might rule Iran if the supreme leader were to fall and that this was one reason the United States should stay out of the regime-change business in this instance. Do you still feel that way today?
Fleitz: I'm concerned what the transition will look like when this regime falls. I think this regime will fall. I don't know how soon. There are some good players, including the late shah's son (Reza Pahlavi), who I think would be a good leader, but I don't know how strong his support is in the country. I do believe, however, that our State Department and Israel have given a lot, a lot of thought to a transition, to an interim government. I just don't know the details of that planning.
RFE/RL: What do you think is the real US objective at this point?
Fleitz: I think the US has achieved its objectives. It has basically destroyed Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and has stopped it from assembling what would have been a missile shield that would have protected Iran's nuclear weapons development.
And, by the end of the year, if we had not taken out Iran's missile-production capability, I don't think further attacks on Iran would have been possible. Iran would have a nuclear weapon. Those are major achievements.
We've also significantly undermined Iran's ability to project power abroad, as well as its internal security organizations that were being used to suppress and kill the Iranian people. These are great achievements. They will promote global security, hopefully to give the Iranian people a chance to take back their country.
RFE/RL: If this war ends without regime change, how do you think ordinary Iranians will view that outcome?
Fleitz: Look, I don't think anyone who thought when this war began that it would be possible to change the regime from the air. This is not regime change. It's regime weakening. It's creating opportunities for the Iranian people to take back their country. And this includes rather aggressive attacks on the Basij militias, which are basically the Nazis of Iran that are being used to kill Iranians who go out on the street and demonstrate. They're being hunted down by Israeli attack drones. It's just remarkable. There are pictures of them hiding under bridges doing other things so they can somehow harass the Iranian people, but also hide. I understand they're also hiding in taxi cabs. You know, if there's another mass demonstration, and I know it will be very, very risky for the Iranian people, the ability of the regime to put that down will be significantly weakened.