After Greenland Tensions, A Tentative Deal Comes Out Of Davos

There may be a solution to the recent tension over Greenland. US President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in a much-touted meeting held in Davos, Switzerland, on January 21, reached a framework agreement.

Earlier that day, Trump had reiterated his wish to bring the Danish island under American sovereignty but ruled out force to accomplish this. But after his meeting with Rutte, he posted on social media that "we have formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region."

"This solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the United States of America, and all Nato Nations," he added.

The agreement, which multiple RFE/RL sources insist has yet to be officially drawn up, will apparently be worked out in the coming weeks. While NATO facilitated the initial meeting, the talks will now mainly be held between the foreign ministers of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland with the potential involvement of the US Vice President JD Vance, as well.

Sovereign Base Areas

Several NATO officials and European diplomats speaking under condition of anonymity told RFE/RL that while concrete details will be ironed out later, there are some "contours" that have been sketched out.

One of the sticking points will continue to be the issue of sovereignty -- perhaps not of the entire island, but part of it.

There have been media reports that the United States would control parts of Greenland by potentially designating them as "sovereign base areas." This would be something like Britain's currently setup in Cyprus, with some bases remaining under London’s control to date despite the island gaining independence in 1960.

NATO officials whom RFE/RL has spoken to insist that "the Cyprus model was not mentioned in the meeting," with one saying that media reporting on this was likely based on speculation by officials on the direction the talks could take.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also issued a statement after the Trump-Rutte meeting, noting that "NATO is fully aware of the Kingdom of Denmark's position. We can negotiate on everything political; security, investments, economy. But we cannot negotiate on our sovereignty."

Brushing Up An Old Treaty

Some other contours of the framework might, however, be easier to agree on.

One includes a "brush up" of the 1951 treaty between the United States and Denmark that allowed Washington to keep its bases on Greenland and establish new ones if the United States and NATO deemed it necessary.

That deal was reworked in 2004 so that consent by both Denmark and Greenland is needed for any US troop increases or new military installments. At the moment, the United States has one base there, which hosts some 200 officers working on ballistic-missile early warnings and space surveillance. During the Cold War, there were up to 10,000 US soldiers on the island.

The reworking is likely to include the incorporation of the proposed American Golden Dome anti-missile system that would cover the North Atlantic, including Greenland -- a move that both Copenhagen and Nuuk are reportedly fine with.

Another aspect of the framework includes investment screening. The United States wants a say in who is allowed to invest in Greenland, with the clear intention of staving off China and Russia from gaining a foothold there. A rare-earth deal, meaning special rights for mining, would also be included and is expected to be agreed on relatively expediently.

More NATO In The North Atlantic?

A third aspect is greater NATO involvement in and around Greenland. This could involve the military alliance as a whole or just the so-called Arctic-7 members of the club: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States.

Whether this entails an expanded number of exercises or something more permanent remains to be seen. Along these lines, there has been much talk in Brussels of a NATO-led Arctic Sentry mission.

Speaking in Brussels on January 22 after a regular meeting of all the NATO countries' chiefs of defense, the alliance's Supreme Allied Commander Europe Alexus Grynkewich said there was no "political guidance yet" for an Arctic Sentry-type of mission just yet.

"We are doing some thinking but no planning yet but we are ready and we have a ton of expertise," he said. He also said there was "never a military dimension in those (Davos) talks that came down to us."

He also confirmed that no NATO exercises are expected on Greenland in the coming months but that a regular joint US-Canadian exercise with Denmark's blessing called Norad -- involving military aircrafts from both nations -- is under way