China Weighs Its Options As Iran Strikes Upend The Middle East

China has escalated its diplomatic rhetoric following US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei while moving cautiously to navigate disruption to global oil markets and the threat of broader instability in the Middle East.

Since the United States and Israel launched coordinated air strikes on Iran on February 28, Beijing has ramped up its diplomatic response, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning calling the joint strikes a violation of international law and telling reporters during a March 2 press briefing that China is deeply concerned about ‌spillover effects on neighboring countries.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also urged Gulf countries to unite to oppose external interference to "keep their future and destiny in their own hands," according to a readout from a phone call with his Omani counterpart. In another call with Iranian ⁠Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, ‌Wang said he believed Iran could maintain national and social stability as well as attach importance to the legitimate concerns of its neighbors.

That follows a statement from Mao a day earlier where she said the military strikes "trample UN Charter principles and basic norms of international relations" as Wang looked to coordinate with emergency UN Security Council responses with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

"China is the world's largest energy importer and largest importer of oil. This can't not impact Beijing," Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, told RFE/RL.

The strikes on Iran and Tehran's unprecedented response with missiles and drones across the region underscore the risks that an expanded war in the Middle East could pose to Beijing.

Over the past decade, Beijing has steadily broadened its economic reach and diplomatic presence across the Middle East, with Iran becoming a key partner as China's most reliable anti-Western bulwark and a source of deeply discounted oil. In return, Beijing has become Tehran's largest trading partner and an increasingly important source of technology and security cooperation, making it vital to Iran's ability to withstand Western pressure.

But faced with the prospect of energy and security instability in the region, analysts say China's main play is to position itself as a diplomatic counterweight to US military action against Iran while aiming to avoid triumphalist messaging that could complicate US President Donald Trump's planned visit to Beijing in early April.

"Beijing would love to see the United States bloodied and embarrassed by this conflict, but a huge conflict in the Middle East could also upend their calculus and insert lots of uncertainty that they don't want," Webster said. "The Chinese don't want to derail the Trump-Xi meeting and feel they have a good hand to play ahead of it."

Calculating The Energy Shock

More than 80 percent of Iranian oil exports go to China, making it the foundation of China-Iran relations in recent years with trade operating through barter arrangements involving discounted Iranian oil exchanged for Chinese goods, technology, and infrastructure investment.

Roughly 12 percent of China's oil imports come from Iran, although estimates are imprecise given that Iranian oil flows through a shadow fleet of disguised vessels and is bought through financial networks that avoid the traditional banking system.

Following the US-Israeli strikes, oil prices have surged, leaving much of the world bracing for the economic fallout of an extended regional war analysts at some leading investment banks like Barclays and JP Morgan saying that a prolonged conflict could send oil prices up to $100 a barrel.

As the regime fights for survival, it could seek to weaponize oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's key chokepoints for energy.

So far, Iran has avoided large-scale attacks on regional energy infrastructure, although falling debris from targeted Iranian drones hit Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil refinery on March 2.

Israel and the United States have also so far refrained from targeting Iran's oil infrastructure.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is exported at sea, is coming under pressure, with Qatar announcing it will stop LNG production linked to the giant North Field gas reservoir, the world's top plant, following an attack on its facilities. The news sent prices rising sharply.

Some energy shipments have paused, largely due to insurers withdrawing coverage and early US Navy advisories.

Trump said the military operation could "take four weeks -- or less," which could be long enough to cause a disruption.

Webster says Iran will be cautious to fully disrupt oil supplies traveling to its partner in Beijing. Tehran and Saudi Arabia also had increased oil exports by nearly 10 percent in the month of February.

China has also been taking steps to insulate itself from energy shocks in the Middle East. According to Kpler, a commodity intelligence firm, Chinese refineries have stockpiled between 1.2 and 1.4 billion barrels of oil as of the end of 2025, which could last up to three months. Beijing also diversifies its oil imports to prevent being overly dependent on one source, with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Malaysia also being top suppliers.

Webster says it remains to be seen how much pain China will endure when it comes to the flow of oil. In addition to its growing reserves, the country has been investing heavily in electric vehicles, which is limiting demand at home.

A July study by the Rhodium Group estimated that China's growing electric vehicle fleet is reducing oil demand by more than 1 million barrels per day. That level is likely to rise further by around 600,000 barrels per day over the next year.

Positioning For Leverage

As China navigates the new uncertainty in the Middle East, analysts say it will have its sights set on the upcoming summit between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

That multiday meeting is expected to cover a range of issues from security around Taiwan to microchips exports to trade. With both leaders invested in the visit, Trump and Xi are looking to move cautiously as the situation in the Middle East escalates around Iran.

"It's too early to say how the chips will fall, but the Chinese are watching things very carefully and being pragmatic," Theresa Fallon, director of the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, told RFE/RL. "After Venezuela and now Iran, this may give the United States some added leverage ahead of the April meeting."

But Fallon added that US moves in Venezuela and Iran also risk normalizing behavior that could eventually undermine American interests.

China may also be waiting until after US-Israeli military action subsides to consolidate its position in the Middle East and with Iran.

Webster also notes that Beijing's ties with Arab states in the region far surpass Iran in terms of foreign investment and as suppliers of oil to China.

"China's interests tilt more toward the Arab states than Iran," he said. "They supply oil and are major markets for all the green energy technologies that China sells."

Beijing largely views Tehran as a useful partner in its long-term effort to dilute Western influence and could be placed to have even greater influence over Iran following the current military strikes.

"The weaker the Iranian regime gets, whether from US or Israeli military strikes or domestic unrest, the more diplomatically, economically, and technologically dependent on China it will become," said a report by the UK-based think tank Chatham House that was released days before the strikes.