Does Iran's Attack On Jordan Mark A Shift In Military Strategy?

Iran fired ballistic missiles at American bases in Jordan late on July 28, in what appeared to be the first time Tehran initiated an attack on US targets since the war began in late February.

The Islamic republic has claimed it is fighting a war of resistance and framed its actions as purely defensive. But the attack on Jordan, where three American soldiers were killed this month, could mark a shift in strategy, experts say.

Iran’s leadership “wants to demonstrate strength, and these military actions can be understood in that context,” Meysam Badamchi, an Iran expert and senior researcher at Charles University in Prague, told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda.

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US President Donald Trump angrily warned Iran that US forces will strike back.

“We'll be hitting them hard. They're going to get a beating,” a Fox News correspondent quoted Trump as saying during a brief interview on July 29.

Iran’s attack broke a lull in fighting since July 24. During the preceding two weeks, the United States had conducted daily air strikes on Iran, which retaliated by hitting American bases dotted across the Middle East. The renewed fighting effectively ended an interim peace deal signed in June.

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The US military's Central Command said on July 28 that it intercepted ⁠multiple ballistic ‌missiles launched by Iran toward US forces in the Middle East in what it said was “an attempted surprise attack.” Jordan said on July 29 that it intercepted and downed five Iranian missiles.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of its armed forces, said its forces “targeted a US airbase and the US Central Command Centre in Jordan with several ballistic missiles,” saying it was a response to “the aggressive actions” of the United States, without elaborating.

' Warning To The US'

Experts said the July 28 attack could signal a major change in Iran’s military strategy, with Tehran now appearing ready to carry out preemptive strikes to deter Washington.

“The attack therefore appears to have been a warning to the United States not to join or initiate a new military campaign against Iran,” Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, wrote on social media.

The Iranian attack came just hours after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who favors continuing the war against Tehran, visited Washington for talks with Trump. The visit came as the US president weighs his options on Iran.

Trump told Axios on July 23 that he was seriously considering “a massive attack” on Iran. But he has since backed down from the threat, saying on July 27 that a new round of diplomacy with Iran could produce a breakthrough.

Iran has denied that it is negotiating with US officials and gave no sign that it was ready to make new concessions over its effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil supplies, and its contested nuclear program.

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The Islamic republic appears to be in no rush to return to peace talks and its recent actions suggest a shift in tactics, experts said.

“The current leadership in Iran seeks to dictate the pace of the confrontation and not merely respond to decisions made in Washington,” Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher on Iran at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, wrote on social media.

“From its perspective, an offensive initiative is a way to prove that Iran still holds the strategic initiative,” he added. “In Tehran, they identify the American hesitation as a weakness and a lack of willingness to be dragged into a broad war. The Iranian assessment is that applying additional pressure will precisely test Washington's resolve and influence decision-making in the White House.”

Fears Of A Widening War

Hours after Iran’s attack on US bases in Jordan, the United States and its ally Saudi Arabia launched joint air strikes against Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq. It was the first US strikes in the Middle East since July 24.

Washington and Riyadh said the strikes were in response to drone attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of crude, launched from Iraq in recent days.

Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly pro-Iranian militias that has been at least nominally part of the Iraqi Army since 2016, said at least 20 of its members were killed in the attack. The government in Baghdad condemned the US-Saudi assault.

The attacks by Iran and the United States have raised fears of a widening war and chaos in international energy markets.

The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen last week opened a new front in the war by targeting oil facilities and striking oil tankers in the Red Sea as part of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, threatening to create a second chokepoint on global oil supplies after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Badamchi of Charles University said the renewed hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia suggest “we're returning to the situation that existed before the Iran-Saudi rapprochement.”

In 2023, the two Middle Eastern rivals restored diplomatic relations after years of tensions that had raised fears of a full-blown war in the region.