Iran’s choice of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new supreme leader sends an explicit message to the United States and Israel: External pressure, including decapitation, will harden rather than reshape the Islamic republic's leadership, experts say.
Mojtaba Khamenei is the second-oldest son of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated in an air strike on February 28 as the United States and Israel launched an aerial bombardment of Iran. The younger Khamenei is known as a hard-line cleric and his selection by the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body, on March 8 represents continuity.
"The message from Tehran is one of defiance: you kill one Khamenei, we give you another," Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told RFE/RL.
SEE ALSO: Mojtaba Khamenei Follows In Father's Footsteps As Iran's New Supreme LeaderAt the same time, the choice also revealed a system under acute internal strain, one in which the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of Iran’s armed forces and the backbone of the country’s theocracy, has displaced the clerically dominated political establishment as kingmakers in the country of some 90 million people, experts say.
'Hereditary Rule'
The 88-member Assembly of Experts was forced to convene remotely to pick a new supreme leader for fear of being targeted by US and Israeli air strikes. The announcement was also delayed over fears that naming a successor would make him an immediate target.
Behind the scenes, the IRGC reportedly applied pressure on delegates to back Khamenei, underscoring internal divisions. An initial online session was challenged on procedural grounds. A second sitting was required to finalize the vote.
Khamenei’s pick risks domestic fury, especially among the core supporters of the Islamic republic. Some previously argued a move toward "hereditary rule" would betray the very anti-monarchist roots of the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
"In a country where a revolution was fought against a monarchy, the government has now become hereditary," Mehrzad Boroujerdi of the Missouri University of Science and Technology told RFE/RL’s Radio Farda. "From this perspective, it is a source of embarrassment for the Islamic republic."
A Leader In Name, A Council In Practice
Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, has never held elected office. His religious credentials remain a point of contention: he holds the rank of hojatoleslam, a mid-level clerical title, rather than the ayatollah designation that lends supreme leaders their theological authority. Since his appointment, however, he has undergone a swift clerical promotion in official rhetoric, with state outlets now strictly referring to him by the title of ayatollah.
The younger Khamenei’s lack of experience makes him entirely dependent on Iran’s so-called deep state, which is dominated by the IRGC, said Boroujerdi.
"He has never been in an elective position to perform management tasks,” he said, “only his close relationship with the security and intelligence agencies has helped him.”
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'Death To Mojtaba' Chants Heard As Iran Picks New Supreme Leader
The younger Khamenei spent two decades at the center of his father's office, the Beyt, coordinating between the clerical establishment and the IRGC.
Alfoneh said it would take Khamenei, like his father, years to consolidate power. Until then, he said, “I expect an informal leadership council comprised of the president, the parliament speaker, the judiciary chief, and representatives of the IRGC and the regular military to oversee the affairs of state.”
Alfoneh said the powerful national-security chief Ali Larijani would be among those aiding the “informal leadership council.” As secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Larijani has emerged as a key power broker since the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025.
The Signal
Khamenei’s selection as the new supreme leader triggered an immediate warning from Israel, Tehran’s archenemy. Israel's military threatened to "pursue every successor" to the elder Khamenei.
Security forces deploy to guard a rally in support of Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enqelab Square in central Tehran, March 9
US President Donald Trump previously said the selection of the younger Khamenei would be "unacceptable" and warned that Iran's new leader would not "last long" without American approval.
By defying Trump, Tehran is sending a signal to the White House, said Boroujerdi. "They are telling Trump: 'No, unlike Venezuela, we have the power to determine who the next person is, not you,'" he said.