For Iran's Isolated Turkmen Minority, War Brings Hope And Trepidation

Few bombs, missiles, or drones have hit Turkmensahra, the isolated northeastern region that is home to most of Iran's ethnic Turkmen, across the border from Turkmenistan.

Instead, residents told RFE/RL, the war that began with US-Israeli air strikes and the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28 has come to the region in more indirect forms. Security has been tightened, and prices have skyrocketed for a population that is already poor and that community leaders say has been marginalized by the central government.

The war has also brought a mix of hope for democracy and equality after decades of autocracy and trepidation about what the future may bring.

"There is no bombardment where we live," said Nurmuhammed, a civil servant from Gümbet, Turkmensahra's main city, except for an attack on a radar station of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) near the Caspian Sea.

But the presence of security forces has risen markedly, he told RFE/RL.

"Checkpoints have increased significantly compared to the past. The number of paramilitary and semi-military forces has grown considerably," Nurmuhammed said.

Ayhan, a student from the town of Kalaleh, gave a similar account.

"Almost every city entrance has a checkpoint, and paramilitary forces are armed," she said. "Roads are very tightly controlled. Vehicles are constantly inspected, and even mobile phones are checked."

Ayhan and Nurmuhammed are pseudonyms. Their names have been withheld due to fears of possible harassment or reprisals from the Iranian authorities.

Both said they believe the stepped-up security indicates the authorities are preparing for intense pressure and are on alert for demonstrations. The war followed some of the biggest opposition protests in years, and a crackdown that killed thousands of civilians.

Immediate Economic Fallout

They also said the economic effects of the war have been immediate, with rising prices straining households across Turkmensahra.

"Food prices have risen sharply, and most Turkmens are struggling with poverty. Many people cannot afford to buy most of the staples," Ayhan said. "Even in the past, their purchasing power was limited; today, prices have increased further, making the situation even harder."

According to Nurmuhammed, the prices of some items have increased by as much as 10 times.

"For now, there is no shortage of food, but prices have risen sharply," he told RFE/RL. "Especially [cooking] oil, flour, and rice have become very expensive. Previously, one could buy 1 kilogram per person, but now only 200 grams at most, because these items have become extremely costly."

By conservative estimates, around 1 million people live in Turkmensahra. But the true number could be significantly higher, as official data on the Turkmen -- a historically marginalized Sunni minority in majority Shi'ite, Persian Iran -- is scarce. Problems such as power outages and water shortages shaped daily life long before the US-Israeli offensive.

"The structural neglect of Turkmensahra has deep roots, and the current conflict has only amplified it," said Abdurrahman Deveci, a Turkmen from the region and a professor at Trakya University in Turkey.

"The Turkmens have long been economically marginalized," Deveci told RFE/RL. "The war has only worsened inequalities, as state investments and subsidies rarely reach this region. Prices are rising faster here than in other parts of Iran because Turkmen lack political influence and resources."

Deep Distrust

The deep-seated tension in ties with the government is one factor in a widespread distrust in state media, and many Turkmensahra residents rely on informal networks to try to gauge the true scale of the war.

"Most information is shared through conversations among people. The public does not trust domestic or national media, and there is confusion about which information is correct," Ayhan said. "However, sometimes people with access to satellites or international Internet provide accurate information, creating a form of solidarity to inform the public."

The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures in the theocratic regime brought relief and joy to many in the region, both Ayhan and Nurmuhammed said.

"The morning we heard the news that Khamenei and some top IRGC commanders had been killed, we were all very happy," Nurmuhammed said, adding that he saw a group of people celebrating at a gas station.

"Ali Khamenei [was] seen as cruel by most of the people in my region," Ayhan said. "His death and that of his close circle brought joy among the public and eased the suffering of the people in this region to some extent."

'Hope And Concern'

For many, though, there is worry about what kind of future any political change may bring.

"People are pleased that the Islamic republic of Iran has been struck a blow; however, they are more concerned about the post-revolution future," Ayhan said. "Personally, I am certain the government will fall, but I am concerned about how the new government will treat Turkmen in Iran."

"Turkmen have always welcomed regime changes with hope for a democratic system. After consolidating their own foundations, however, every regime has continued discriminatory practices against Turkmen," said Deveci.

"Therefore, Turkmens look to the postwar future with both hope and concern. Will history repeat itself, or will we finally see better days?" he said.

Deveci also said government settlement policies have created tensions in the region. Over the years, some non-Turkmen populations have been resettled in Turkmensahra, sometimes receiving land that residents consider historically Turkmen. While relations remain mostly calm, he said, political instability could aggravate tensions.

Nurmuhammed echoed Ayhan's mixture of hope and uncertainty.

"The people hope that through external intervention, the mullahs' regime will be overthrown, and that they can later establish a fully democratic government by their own hands," he said.

"The greatest concern is that, despite the war, the regime does not change and the freedom we hope for does not materialize," he added.