Fears Of Iranian Refugee Influx Grow In Central Asia As War Intensifies

Two weeks of US-Israeli air strikes have displaced millions inside Iran, raising fears in neighboring countries about a possible refugee spillover that could potentially turn into a humanitarian crisis.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said it is preparing for potential humanitarian needs in the region, estimating that up to 3.2 million people have been temporarily displaced inside Iran, most of whom are fleeing Tehran, which on March 13 saw one of the heaviest days of bombardment in the conflict so far.

Several of Iran’s neighbors closed their borders at the onset of the air strikes, which started on February 28, and have only sparingly allowed mainly citizens of third countries to cross as they transit home.

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'We Have Lost Everything': Iranians Continue To Cross Into Armenia Amid Air Attacks

With many of Iran’s 90 million inhabitants grappling with whether to flee the country because of the war, Mahir Safarli, the UNHCR’s representative for Central Asia, told RFE/RL in an interview that the agency is ready to respond if the situation escalates.

“Across Central Asia, we are coordinating closely with governments to monitor the situation and respond effectively if humanitarian needs expand,” Safarli said.

As of now, the UNHCR says the flow of refugees is manageable. At the border with Turkey, it estimates that around 1,300 people a day exit Iran. Some days see more returning to Iran than those leaving as they come back to protect their property or because they weren’t able to stay away for long periods due to the cost.

At the border with Armenia, some people leaving Iran said the flow has been stymied by Iranian authorities who are only allowing foreign or dual citizens to leave.

"We have lost everything. Nothing exists in Iran anymore. Unfortunately, things are very difficult," one Iranian refugee told RFE/RL as they crossed into Armenia to escape the threat of intense air strikes by the US and Israel.

“We were in Bukan (northwestern Iran) yesterday when they hit the governor’s office and leveled it," said another elderly woman. "The doors and windows of nearby buildings were shattered. Some people were killed and many were wounded. The situation in Iran is not good.”

Safarli said a cornerstone of the UNHCR’s preparedness is a logistics hub in Termez, southern Uzbekistan, near the border with Afghanistan.

Established in October 2021 during the Afghanistan humanitarian emergency and incorporated into the UNHCR’s global stockpile network in 2025, the hub stores essential relief items -- family tents, blankets, sleeping mats, kitchen sets, buckets, jerry cans, and solar lamps.

Order From Ashgabat

While Mahir Safarli told RFE/RL that there have been no major developments on the Iranian-Turkmen border, some Turkmen border officials told RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service that the number of Iranian Turkmen attempting to cross into Turkmenistan is on the rise.

Iran shares one of its longest borders with Turkmenistan, stretching roughly 1,148 kilometers from the Caspian Sea to Afghanistan. According to the UNHCR, all four main border crossings -- Sarakhs, Artyk, Howdan, and Altyn Asyr -- remain operational, but only for the evacuation of third-country nationals.

Turkmen border officials said those people attempting to cross are coming from northern Iranian districts with significant Turkmen populations, including Robat, Hasanabad, Gorgan Incheburun, Kerend, Balahi, and parts of Mashhad province.

“Some of the people approaching the border have gone to customs offices and asked for temporary refuge until the air strikes in Iran end,” a Turkmen border official said, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

“We have received strict orders from Ashgabat not to allow Iranian citizens to cross into Turkmenistan at this time. Our patrols have been reinforced, and we are using drones along the border to monitor the situation.”

The official also stressed the limitations on Turkmenistan’s capacity.

“Our military capacity is limited. Our economic situation does not even allow us to provide basic necessities, such as bread, for our own citizens. Considering these realities, Turkmenistan is not ready to accept refugees,” the official added

Historically, small numbers of ethnic Turkmens crossed temporarily into Turkmenistan during the Iran–Iraq War and in subsequent decades. The UNHCR and border reports confirm that no ordinary Iranian civilians have been allowed across during the current conflict.

Internal Displacement In Iran

The United Nations says most of those internally displaced in Iran are heading north, away from regions facing heavy bombardment. Families are often forced to rely on relatives, friends, or makeshift community shelters.

The sudden influx of displaced people into northern communities has pushed up demand for food and other essentials in this impoverished and economically isolated region, where residents already report sharp price increases for staples such as cooking oil, flour, and rice, with some items reportedly up to ten times more expensive than before the conflict.

For now, most families remain inside Iran, but Safarli stressed to RFE/RL that neighboring states have obligations to provide protection if refugees begin arriving:

“In Central Asia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan have national refugee legislation and established asylum systems," Safarli told RFE/RL. "UNHCR calls on States to provide access to territory for people in need of international protection to seek asylum, safeguard against refoulement, and ensure due rights and services as people forced to flee.”