TEL AVIV -- As the US-Israeli war with Iran continues, a second front against Hezbollah has led to the displacement of some 800,000 people fleeing deadly Israeli air strikes in Lebanon, while a succession of rocket and drone attacks has rained down on Israel.
Hezbollah, regarded as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the United States, is Iran’s strongest remaining proxy on Israel’s borders. It attacked Israel on March 2, after Israel began air strikes on Iran on February 28.
The response by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been massive -- and the conflict with Hezbollah is an integral part of Israel’s wider war against Iran itself.
“The campaign against Iran was meant to deal with our very existence in the region, and Hezbollah is part of that,” Sarit Zehavi, head of Alma, a think tank based in northern Israel, told RFE/RL on March 13. “We are under constant attacks 24/7 here.”
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Israeli President Calls For 'Hitting Iran Hard' As Attacks Continue On Both Sides
Israel and Hezbollah have fought each other in several armed conflicts going back to the 1980s. Before the last conflict, which ended in 2024, Israel said the group had an arsenal of some 125,000-150,000 rockets – although estimates varied.
“When the war ended, the IDF itself said that they degraded the amount of rockets in the hands of Hezbollah by 80 percent. So, if you calculate, you will find out that they still had back then about 25,000 rockets,” said Zehavi, who worked in military intelligence during a 15-year IDF career.
“Now, there was an effort in the past year or so by Hezbollah to recover, either by smuggling or manufacturing in Lebanon, of different types of weapons, from anti-tank missiles, rockets, drones. Drones was the main effort,” she added.
SEE ALSO: US And Israel United In War, Divided On What Comes NextThe Israeli authorities see the war with Hezbollah in similar terms to the war with Iran: a unique opportunity to deliver a strategic defeat to a decades-long foe. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called on Lebanon’s government to disarm the group, warning on March 12 that it is “playing with fire” if it does not. A day later, Defense Minister Israel Katz followed up, saying the destruction of Lebanese infrastructure would be the “price” of not disarming Hezbollah.
A 'Disproportionate' Response
The same day, the World Health Organization (WHO) said some 630 people had been killed and 1,500 injured in Lebanon since the beginning of the latest fighting. Israel says many of these are “terrorists.” Israeli air strikes have caused huge explosions in Beirut and across the south of the country. It is also conducting limited ground operations and Netanyahu has hinted of a larger-scale ground incursion.
“Israel is not simply responding to Hezbollah attacks, that's certain. Its military campaign appears designed to eliminate Hezbollah as a political and social force entirely, not just disarm it,” Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told RFE/RL.
Israeli rescue personnel at a damaged building in the north of the country following missile fire from Hezbollah on March 13
“This means deliberate displacement of an entire community…and disproportionate firepower resulting in indiscriminate harm to the civilian population,” added Sayigh, who was a negotiator in the Palestinian delegation to peace talks with Israel between 1991 and 2002.
Israeli demands that the Lebanese government take action against Hezbollah are not new, but this time Beirut’s response has broken new ground. On March 2, it declared the group’s military activities illegal -- an unprecedented step.
Israel is now demanding practical steps to follow through on this. Sayigh said this would not be easy for the Lebanese government. “It is under US pressure, in addition to constant Israeli military attacks, to take more direct action to disarm Hezbollah. But it fears that using force creates conditions for civil strife, if not civil war,” he said.
In a televised address on March 12, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stressed that he was hoping there might be scope for diplomacy.
"It is a war we did not want. On the contrary, we are working day and night to bring it to an end," he said. But neither Israel nor Hezbollah have indicated any intention to stop fighting for now.
What Comes Next
“Hezbollah’s strategy, likely in coordination with Iran, appears to be to inflict as much pain on Israel for as long as possible in the hope that a settlement is reached between the warring parties that essentially leaves the regime in Tehran in place,” wrote Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based defense and security consultant, on March 11.
Israeli media have been reporting for days now that a larger ground operation in Lebanon is coming soon. Analysts that RFE/RL spoke to said that it was not to be ruled out.
“The IDF has attacked more than 800 times in Lebanon. 800 attacks. This is what the IDF published yesterday. I don't know about today. That's a lot of targets,” said Zehavi. “And you see the damage. And they have a lot more [to target]. In order to create an impactful achievement, we will have to do a...military incursion.”
Warning leaflets dropped by the Israeli military over the Lebanese capital, Beirut, litter the street on March 13.
On March 8, Israel said two of its soldiers were killed in Lebanon in a Hezbollah attack -- the only IDF fatalities so far since February 28. Previous ground operations in Lebanon have involved many more Israeli military casualties.
“At the end, Hezbollah -- Lebanese, Arabic-speaking Shi’ites, are the locals. There's always an advantage in knowing the terrain,” Miri Eisin, a former deputy head of the Israeli military's Combat Intelligence Corps, told RFE/RL.
“We're going into a very challenging topographical area, a very hilly area. All of these factors are going to be a challenge. That doesn't mean you don't do it,” she added.
Whether there is an expanded ground war or not, many observers expect Hezbollah to be further weakened by the current conflict. Beirut-based analyst Sayigh said the Lebanese government’s new position on Hezbollah’s activities would have a long-term impact.
But the crucial factor may be the outcome of the war with Iran, which has bankrolled Hezbollah for decades and remains its paymaster. While Israel has continued to say the aim of the war is regime change in Tehran, the US position has placed greater emphasis on degrading Iran’s capabilities.
“Although weakened, Hezbollah's fate probably depends on how the Trump administration chooses to end its war with Iran -- some kind of deal could lead to an outcome in Lebanon that falls short of Israel's maximal aims,” said Sayigh.