Latvian Defense Minister Says Russia's Hybrid Attacks, Not Nuclear Rhetoric, Are The Main Concern

WASHINGTON -- Latvia’s defense minister has played down any immediate danger after Russia’s latest nuclear warning to NATO over Kaliningrad.

“I don’t see an imminent threat at this point,” Raivis Melnis told RFE/RL in an interview in Washington on September 30, echoing NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who said he did not take the Russian warning "that seriously."

Russia warned NATO this week that it was prepared to use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, if the Western alliance attempted to cut off Kaliningrad, its heavily militarized Baltic exclave wedged between NATO members Poland and Lithuania.

In a diplomatic memo circulated to NATO member states, Moscow said it had information that the alliance was preparing an “air and naval blockade” of the territory.

The warning prompted Rutte to call on Russia to “stop the nuclear threats,” saying NATO is a defensive alliance and that “this is absolutely not called for and not helpful.” He added that Russian President Vladimir Putin knows that he cannot win in a direct confrontation with NATO.

Melnis said Russia had repeatedly resorted to nuclear threats since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, arguing that Moscow uses such rhetoric to frighten Western populations, weaken support for Kyiv, and test the cohesion of the NATO alliance.

“Russia will use any means to threaten us, to bring fear to our people, to support Ukraine, and also to break our unity, cohesion, to support and just test where are those limits,” he said.

Latvian Defense Minister: ‘Russia Will Use Any Means To Threaten Us’

Escalation Risks?

The Russian warning has nevertheless raised concern among arms-control and security specialists, particularly because of Kaliningrad’s strategic position and Russia’s evolving nuclear doctrine.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan Washington based nonprofit, told RFE/RL that the Russian threat should be taken seriously and condemned as unacceptable. He said Moscow’s language reflected what he described as a careless approach to the dangers of nuclear weapons use.

Kimball noted that NATO does not appear to be preparing military action to isolate Kaliningrad. Even if such a confrontation were contemplated, he said, using nuclear weapons in a conflict involving another nuclear-armed state or alliance could trigger retaliation, escalation, and potentially catastrophic consequences.

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He argued that Moscow should instead address its concerns with NATO through diplomatic channels, saying that “rather than threatening nuclear attack, the Kremlin should reach out to NATO capitals to clarify whatever concerns Russia might have and to address those concerns diplomatically and responsibly.”

Lynn Rusten, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and a former senior White House National Security Council official responsible for arms control and nonproliferation, told RFE/RL that Russia’s latest nuclear rhetoric appeared “unhinged and hyperbolic” from a Western perspective.

But Rusten also warned of a dangerous combination of factors: Russian threats and provocative hybrid warfare, NATO and Russian forces operating in close proximity, continued Western support for Ukraine, and a lack of meaningful dialogue.

She said those conditions could increase the risk of dangerous miscalculation, particularly as Russia and NATO assert competing red lines while channels for managing tensions remain limited.

“The lack of meaningful dialogue and the growing divide in security perceptions carries a grave risk of further and potentially unintended escalation and expansion of this conflict,” Rusten said.

Sylvia Mishra, nuclear policy director at the Institute for Security and Technology, said nuclear brinkmanship was not new for Moscow but should nonetheless be treated seriously.

Kaliningrad, she noted, is home to the headquarters of Russia’s Baltic Fleet and is strategically important but geographically vulnerable, surrounded by NATO members Poland and Lithuania and separated from mainland Russia.

Mishra said reported NATO air operations around the exclave in mid-August, which included aircraft with capabilities to disrupt communications, radar, and navigation systems, could have heightened Moscow’s sense of vulnerability.

She also pointed to Russia’s 2024 revised nuclear doctrine, which formally lowered the threshold described by Moscow for potential nuclear use.

Mishra said the latest warning appeared to be the first instance of Russia issuing a written diplomatic note explicitly warning that it was prepared to use nuclear weapons if the Western alliance attempted to isolate Kaliningrad.

Hybrid Attacks

For Melnis, however, the more immediate threat is neither nuclear nor a large-scale Russian conventional military assault on NATO, but an expanding campaign of hybrid activity -- hostile actions short of open warfare, including cyberattacks, sabotage, and the weaponization of migration.

He said Latvia and its allies are continuously reassessing the threat, monitoring Russia’s military capabilities, losses in Ukraine, force generation, and activities such as suspected attacks on military-industrial facilities and critical infrastructure.

“We are monitoring and we are working closely with Ukrainian partners or with our NATO partners,” Melnis said, adding that Latvia’s threat assessment is a continuous process and that hybrid activity is increasing.

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Melnis said he did not believe Russia currently had the capacity to launch a conventional offensive against a NATO country while sustaining its war in Ukraine.

“Russia stopped in Ukraine, they are not achieving the goals,” he said, pointing to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations and arguing that Moscow would face major difficulties trying to conduct two large-scale military operations simultaneously.

He described cyberattacks, pressure through migration from Belarus -- which Minsk has been accused of facilitating to destabilize its neighbors -- and other hostile activities as part of the new security environment confronting Latvia and its allies.

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Latvia is also strengthening defenses against drones. Melnis said the country had deployed interceptor systems and additional radar along its borders with Russia and Belarus, drawing heavily on lessons from Ukraine. NATO fighter aircraft provide another layer, while Latvia is procuring medium- and short-range air defense systems.

Melnis said Russian drone incursions could become a growing feature of the Baltic security environment, citing recent incidents involving Lithuania, Poland, and Romania. Latvia, he said, is preparing for more such incidents.

US Role In European Defense

Melnis was in Washington to deepen defense cooperation with the US, including discussions involving the Michigan National Guard, procurement programs, and capability development.

He said he remains confident that the US will maintain a military presence in Europe despite adjustments to deployments in individual countries. US forces, he said, remain in Latvia, and Washington continues to recognize the strategic importance of the region.

At the same time, Melnis said European allies must assume a greater share of the burden for their own defense. He credited US President Donald Trump with pushing NATO members to increase defense spending, saying Latvia is committed by law to spending at least 5 percent of gross domestic product annually on security beginning next year.

NATO members agreed at their 2025 summit in The Hague to spend 5 percent of GDP annually on defense and defense-related priorities by 2035, up from the alliance’s previous 2-percent benchmark. Latvia has moved faster, with its parliament requiring national defense spending of at least 5 percent of projected GDP from 2027.

But Melnis said greater European responsibility would go hand in hand with continued US support.

“The United States will provide. They will be there. They will fight with us if needed,” Melnis said, while stressing that Europe must do more.