Testing Times For Mecca Alliance Partners As Iran-Aligned Houthis Mount Attacks

Saudi Arabian allies Pakistan and Turkey are facing a major test just two months after signing a joint defense agreement as the rise of Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen test the deal, which says "any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all."

As fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed government forces rages in Yemen, experts believe that any active military interference by Pakistan or Turkey -- the other two partners in the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement -- in support of Saudi Arabia, may heighten regional tensions amid the US-Iran conflict.

"(The Islamic republic) can still support the Houthis but if Turkey and Pakistan enter (the war), the situation would become complicated," Frankfurt-based Middle East analyst Ali Sadrzadeh told RFE/RL's Radio Farda.

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The three sides held an emergency meeting in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, on October 5, the day Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces announced that they had secured effective control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a claim denied by the Houthis.

Last month, the Houthi rebels captured the Red Sea port city of Mocha and other areas around the strait, a key route for Saudi oil exports to Asia that has gained in importance with the disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz because of the Iran war.

The Houthis have also warned that Saudi airspace "will be the theatre of operations of our armed forces."

The renewed fighting has displaced some 184,000 people and threatened shipping through the vital chokepoint linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

In an apparent reference to recent Houthi strikes on the Saudi cities of Mecca and Medina, two of Islam's most sacred locations, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Sultan said in a social media post that the alliance meeting "reaffirmed the solidarity and unity of our countries in confronting the heinous attacks against the Kingdom and the holy sites."

He added that the three sides agreed to activate collective deterrence measures within the framework of the alliance in response to the attacks and "all those responsible for them."

A Festering Conflict

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has festered for years.

Saudi Arabia launched a military intervention in Yemen in March 2015, after Houthi rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, and forced the internationally recognized government to flee the country. The conflict is widely viewed as part of the broader Saudi-Iranian rivalry, with the two countries backing opposing sides. Major fighting subsided after a UN-brokered truce in 2022, but the conflict was never fully resolved and has escalated again this year.

Alarm bells rang when the Houthis last month stepped up attacks against Saudi targets, including a key oil pipeline, and advanced toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

A joint statement released after the emergency October 5 meeting stated that it was meant to address the "security developments and threats facing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia."

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Experts believe the joint statement of the Mecca alliance, affirming the provision of "agreed military forces and capabilities" and their "rapid deployment in the Kingdom" is a clear declaration of support for Saudi Arabia in the face of increasing attacks from the Houthis.

But they say such support also risks triggering another confrontation in the region.

Sadrzadeh said that, although there are an estimated 30,000-40,000 Pakistani troops based in Saudi Arabia, he does not think the nuclear-armed country would agree to send forces to Yemen because Pakistan "wants to maintain its relationship with the Islamic republic."

Just a day ahead of the emergency meeting, Iran Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei warned that any "new intervention" in (Yemen) would further complicate the situation.

In a reference to Pakistan's reported deployment of troops in Saudi Arabia to fight the Houthis in Yemen, Baqaei said that "we hope that it is not true and really is just a rumor," adding that "any new intervention in developments related to Yemen would only make the situation more complicated."

Rabia Akhtar, a professor of international relations at the University of Lahore, believes that Pakistani forces taking part in strikes against the Houthis could lead to a confrontation with Iran.

"Tehran could see that as Pakistan joining a campaign against its regional interests, even if Islamabad insists that its involvement is limited to supporting Saudi Arabia," she told RFE/RL.

Walking A Tightrope

Nuclear-armed Pakistan shares a roughly 900-kilometer-long border with Iran along its southwestern frontier. Unlike its often-fraught relations with India and Afghanistan, its other two neighbors to the east and west, ties between Islamabad and Tehran are mostly stable.

Akhtar said that Saudi Arabia is an important partner for Pakistan, but Iran is a neighbor and Islamabad "will have to live with the consequences of its decisions long after this particular episode ends."

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Pakistan has been walking a tightrope by not taking sides since the United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on February 28.

Despite maintaining traditionally close relations with Saudi Arabia and several other oil-rich Gulf countries, Pakistan has restricted itself mostly to statements of condemnation in the face of Iran's drone and missile attacks on its Arab neighbors over the past few months.

Islamabad has also presented itself as a mediator and hosted the first-ever face-to-face talks between Iranian and US officials since 1980 in April.

While experts see the October 5 emergency meeting of the Mecca alliance as a fresh escalation amid the regional hostilities, Khalid Sultan of the National University of Modern Languages believes that it should not automatically be interpreted as a precursor to a broader ground war in Yemen.

"The (Mecca) agreement's significance lies not simply in military cooperation, but in the emergence of a collective regional deterrence mechanism," he told RFE/RL, adding that the success of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement will ultimately be measured not by how quickly it enters a war, but by how effectively it prevents one.

"For Pakistan, in particular, the policy challenge will be to honor its defense commitment to Saudi Arabia while avoiding an open-ended military entanglement in Yemen."

Akhtar said any Pakistani participation in attacks on Houthis could undermine its role as a mediator with Tehran.

"A clearly limited role in defending Saudi territory could remain compatible with mediation," she said. "Joining an offensive campaign in Yemen would make that position much harder to sustain."