For China, Pakistan's Balochistan represents a massive investment that's a crucial part of its touted Belt and Road Initiative. Its flagship project, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has garnered some $65 billion in funding from Beijing for everything from infrastructure development to energy generation and mineral extraction.
But the resource-rich region, which borders Afghanistan and Iran, is also home to a long-simmering insurgency by ethnic Baluch militants marked by decades of attacks on gas pipelines, electricity towers, and railways. And in recent years, militant violence in Balochistan has seen a sharp increase, with Chinese projects a frequent target -- putting a strain on relations between the traditionally strong allies and the future of investments in the country.
As Pakistan's closest neighbor and friend, China is often referred to as its Iron Brother. However, Beijing has long conveyed its concerns to the Pakistani authorities regarding threats to the safety and security of its personnel as well as investment projects.
The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), an armed separatist group, carried out more than 100 attacks in the first six months of this year targeting foreign investment projects, police, military and paramilitary personnel in the region.
At least 42 Pakistani police and military personnel have been killed in Baluch attacks in this month alone. In one high-profile attack in March, the group hijacked the Jaffar Express train and took hundreds of passengers hostage.
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With Billions At Stake, China Steps Up Efforts To End Pakistan-Taliban ConflictPakistan has long accused archrival India and the neighboring Taliban regime in Afghanistan of fomenting separatist and militant groups in the border regions, but analysts say local grievances with roots in history are primarily responsible for the situation.
Seeking an independent Balochistan, Baluch militants accuse Pakistan of exploiting the province's vast natural resources.
Despite being Pakistan's largest province by area and strategically located with access to the Strait of Hormuz through Gwadar Port and land borders with Iran and Afghanistan, Balochistan remains the country's most underdeveloped and impoverished region.
The recent uptick in militant violence is a serious cause of concern for China, a country that has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan since 2015. The BLA in recent years has turned its sights on the Chinese, accusing them of exploiting their resources.
In a 2019 video warning, the BLA addressed Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying: "You still have time to quit Balochistan" or there will be attacks "you will never forget."
A series of deadly attacks since then has underscored the risks facing Chinese nationals working in Pakistan. Most of the attacks have been claimed by BLA or its affiliated groups.
In July 2021, a suicide bombing targeting a bus carrying workers to the Dasu hydropower project in northwestern Pakistan killed 13 people, including nine Chinese engineers and workers, prompting Beijing to temporarily withdraw personnel from the project. In April 2022, three Chinese nationals were killed when a female suicide bomber attacked the Confucius Institute at the University of Karachi.
The violence continued in 2024. In March, a suicide attack targeted employees of the Dasu Dam project on the Karakoram Highway, killing five Chinese nationals. Seven months later, in October, two Chinese citizens were killed and several others injured when a vehicle-borne explosive device struck their convoy near the high-security zone surrounding Jinnah International Airport in Karachi.
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Pakistan Creates Special Security Unit To Protect Chinese Citizens Amid A Rise In AttacksIn February 2025, a roadside bomb exploded at a convoy associated with the Chinese-opeated Saindak copper and gold mine. Eight people were injured, including six Pakistani security personnel. The identities of the other two were not disclosed.
Following the increasing attacks and frequent protests from China, Pakistani authorities have heightened the security arrangements for Chinese nationals in Pakistan, with a multilayered security in Balochistan.
China, too, is apparently weighing the possibility of sending security personnel to the region to protect both its citizens and assets.
During a meeting in Shanghai on July 16, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, agreed to jointly "consolidate counterterrorism security guarantees" to carry forward their shared goals.
Days before, Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met with Chinese Deputy Minister of Public Security Ling Zhifeng at the United Nations in New York.
Naqvi said his country wants to take "security cooperation with China to the next level" by establishing a Special Protection Police Force to provide security for Chinese citizens and projects.
China's Flagship Project
With much fanfare, CPEC was launched in 2015 with a focus on the construction of roads and railway lines and the promotion of export-driven industries by developing special economic zones, energy generation and agriculture projects, and the development of Gwadar, the deep-sea port that provides shorter access for China to the Arabian Sea.
The Gwadar Port is China's major strategic project, also known as the crown jewel of CPEC. It includes the development of the deep seaport, the construction of Pakistan's largest airport, economic zones, linking roads, and public welfare projects.
Due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz (180 nautical miles), Gwadar was once slated to become Pakistan's Dubai. China opened Pakistan's largest airport there, at the cost of roughly $230 million, in 2025.
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What's Behind The Deadly Surge Of Violence In Pakistan's Balochistan?But the city of Gwadar has practically become a no-go zone owing to the prevailing security situation.
"Despite being chief minister of Balochistan Province, I never visited the Gwadar airport," Abdul Malik Baloch told RFE/RL in 2024. When asked the reason, he sarcastically replied that "there are security concerns."
However, analysts say the combination of ongoing security threats, political instability, bureaucratic delays, and economic obstacles have slowed the pace of implementation of many projects.
"CPEC has lost much of its initial momentum," said Khalid Sultan, an Islamabad-based analyst. He believes that attracting new foreign investments is challenging in face of the security situation.
"If the current security environment persists, China is likely to adopt a more cautious approach by slowing the pace of new investments, reassessing existing projects, and demanding stronger security guarantees before committing additional resources," Sultan added.
Can Strategic Interests Outweigh Security Risks?
While security keeps the Chinese-funded developmental projects in Balochistan at the risk of closure, analysts believe China will stick to Pakistan because of its strategic interests.
"The strategic partnership has been built over several decades and is based on shared geopolitical and security interests. The economic cooperation may slow or become more cautious, but the broader strategic relationship is unlikely to weaken significantly in the near future," Sultan told RFE/RL.
Liu Zongli, director of the South Asia Research Center at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, argued in a recent article that relations between Islamabad and Beijing "rest on the three closely interrelated pillars of strategic and security cooperation, economic integration, and people-to-people exchange."
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Panda Power: Kazakhstan Leads Central Asia Amid Surge To China's Debt MarketIn May, Liu Zongli of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies told the prominent Chinese newspaper Guancha that one of Beijing's solutions to security risks in Balochistan was to dispatch Chinese security personnel to Pakistan. "The Pakistani military has not yet accepted this, and negotiations between the two sides are ongoing."
Political scientist Ayesha Siddiqa, an author and senior fellow at King's College London, told RFE/RL that the Chinese have repeatedly asked Pakistan for "two layers of security" where the Chinese will taking over the internal while the Pakistani military will be responsible for the external layer.
However, she added, the Pakistanis haven't yet agreed, mainly because it could "expose their plans" to the Chinese as well as the exposure of Chinese to security threats. Thirdly, she said, in lights of its relations with Washington, Pakistan would not allow China to become part of its "internal security architecture."
The issue of security and terrorism always remain one of the key topics between the top Chinese and Pakistani officials.
Ayesha said the threat isn't going to go away anytime soon, and could in fact increase.
"Given the current global geopolitical conditions, this threat is bound to increase," she said while referring to the increasing militant violence in Pakistan and the country's indirect involvement in the Middle East.
"There are multiple forces which are responsible for a continuous turmoil in the region and conditions are not going to be favorable," she added.