If Russia Wants To Stay On Washington's Good Side, Why Help Iran Target US Forces?

Two days after the United States and Israel launched their massive air campaign on Iran, the US Embassy in Riyadh -- 400 kilometers inland from the Persian Gulf -- was hit by two Iranian drones. The attack caused no injuries and “limited fire and minor material damage to the building,” according to the Saudi Defense Ministry and the embassy itself.

What was more significant was the apparent target: the CIA station for Saudi Arabia.

Since the start of the war on February 28, Iran has retaliated with an expanding number of targets, hitting US military installations -- in Kuwait and in Bahrain -- with drones and missiles, as well as high-profile, high-visibility facilities in other countries -- Dubai’s skyscrapers and airport; desalinization plants in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

But those targets take little military intelligence to strike.

Tehran has also struck sensitive targets that experts say would not have been identified by Iran without specific intelligence. Something that Russia might be happy to provide.

The extent of the intelligence US officials say Moscow has been providing Tehran -- first reported by The Washington Post -- is unclear.

The Post said Moscow passed along the locations of US military assets in the Middle East and Gulf region, including warships and aircraft, to the Iranians.

Three US officials broadly confirmed the Post reporting to RFE/RL, but declined to provide further details.

Aside from the US Embassy in Riyadh, other sensitive targets that have been hit by Iran since the start of the February 28 campaign include components of the high-end Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) which are used by US facilities as well as those of allies, like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia is probably sharing electronic intelligence -- radar signals, radio wavelengths -- and “live-time dynamic targeting information” -- specific information allowing the launch of drones and missiles on quick notice, said Nicole Grajewski, an Iran researcher at Sciences Po, the French research university.

Damage assessment is likely included, she said: what a site looks like after it has been hit by a drone or missile, so targeting officials or intelligence officers can figure out how effective an attack has been.

Iran has only a few satellites capable of producing powerful military imagery. Russia has a bigger, more sophisticated network than Tehran, though vastly fewer capabilities than the United States.

But Iran, like Russia, could also obtain imagery from commercial satellite providers whose publicly available imagery has exploded in popularity over the past decade.

“My understanding is the reason why the Russians are doing this is at least to prolong the hurt in the battle, to distract” the United States and Israel, Grajewski said. “They see Iran going through somewhat of a similar situation” as Russia is in Ukraine, where the United States and possibly other NATO countries have provided detailed targeting information to Ukrainian forces.

“They view themselves in being [strangled], encircled, and punished by the West,” she said.

'I Hope They're Not'

In other words, if Russia is able to force Washington to further draw down its weapons arsenals by attacking Iran, that will mean fewer weapons systems available to Ukraine: for example, Patriot air defense systems which Kyiv is desperate for.

That possibility wasn’t lost on Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, who drew a line between the Russian intelligence sharing in Iran and the conflict in Ukraine.

“Reports that Moscow and Tehran are working together to kill US troops should come as no surprise,” she told EU on March 9. “Ukraine, on the other hand, is offering to help defend Americans and our partners in the Gulf. That alone should tell you who your friends are.”

US administration officials, including President Donald Trump, have not explicitly confirmed the reports. White House envoy Steve Witkoff, who has had extensive contact with Kremlin officials, including President Vladimir Putin, said he has warned his Russian counterparts not to share such intelligence.

“I hope they’re not,” Witkoff said when asked if he had evidence Moscow was passing targeting information to Iran. Russia denied doing so during a phone call between Trump and Putin the previous day, Witkoff told CNBC on March 10.

Anna Borshchevskaya, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a US think tank, said that in the run-up to the war many observers focused on whether Russia intended to save the Iranian regime.

“But they were never going to do that,” Borshchevskaya said. "And in fact, I don't think the Iranian regime itself expected Russia to do that."

“Rather, what Russia was far more likely to do was exercise restraint and speak about being a mediator in public, and then offer Iran support in private, and look for ways to benefit from this crisis," she said. "That's exactly what Russia is doing now -- this intelligence sharing.

“Russia was not going to offer direct military assistance to Iran because they don't want to fight with the United States or Israel. That is not to Russia's benefit," Borshchevskaya said. “But what is to Russia's benefit is to look for indirect ways to undermine the US-Israeli campaign.”

Another clue that Russia might share sensitive intelligence with Iran appears in a strategic partnership agreement that was signed by the two countries last year. One clause specifically mentions intelligence sharing.

Aside from ongoing intelligence sharing, Russia has also supplied several defensive weapons systems to Iran over the years: that includes S-300 air defense systems and the Krasukha, a ground-based electronic warfare, radar-jamming system.

What About Ukraine?

For many observers, the reports of Russian intelligence sharing with Tehran contrast with the stance the Kremlin has taken on other foreign policy issues on which the United States charged forward.

For example, after the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, the Kremlin’s response was restrained.

That was seen as a calculated effort by the Kremlin to avoid antagonizing Washington and jeopardizing the ongoing US-backed peace talks to end Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine, now in its fifth year. Analysts say Russia is using the process to attempt to achieve its war goals.

Experts said the Russian intelligence sharing, while alarming to the United States and Israel, likely did not cross a red line -- something that would prompt a more furious, more aggressive response. Transferring a powerful missile system like the Iskander, for example, would be a red line.

“I don't think this report about intelligence sharing is a fatal blow to Russia’s negotiations on Ukraine,” Borshchevskaya said.

The publicity surrounding the issue of Russian intelligence sharing may have had the desired effect for the US, Grajewski said, as the tempo of Iranian attacks has slowed in recent days.

That may be in part because Moscow has been scaling back what it shares to avoid aggravating Washington further.