WASHINGTON -- A senior US State Department official warned that Russia is likely to reposition forces toward NATO’s eastern flank once the war in Ukraine ends, raising concerns that the Baltic states could face intensified military and hybrid pressure from Moscow in the years ahead.
Christopher Smith, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, on May 14 told US lawmakers that while Russia currently has “about 90 percent of its combat power” committed to Ukraine, Moscow would eventually seek to “rebalance its forces and look for opportunities to project power and also create dilemmas for NATO.”
“This is particularly acute in the Baltic region,” Smith told a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee hearing focused on security threats facing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Soldiers on tanks take part in a large-scale exercise with the participation of NATO troops near the Estonian border with Russia in 2021.
While US officials have warned for years about the threats Russia poses to the Baltic states and NATO’s eastern flank, the hearing underscored growing concern in Washington and among NATO allies that such a danger could become far more imminent if a cease-fire or negotiated settlement is reached in Ukraine.
Republican Representative Keith Self of Texas, who chairs the Europe subcommittee, said Russia was already rebuilding its military while continuing to wage war in Ukraine.
“When this war is over, there is a real risk that Russia may position its battle-hardened troops on the borders of the Baltic republics,” Self said. “History suggests the cessation of the conflict in Ukraine will not reduce the Russian threat. It may instead simply redirect it.”
Smith said the threat was already visible through Russian cyberattacks, sabotage operations, and hybrid tactics directed at the Baltic region. “We should expect Russia to rebalance its forces,” he said, adding that Moscow was already using “hybrid operations against the Baltic states” to pressure NATO allies.
NATO Front Line
Lawmakers from both US parties repeatedly described Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania as model NATO allies, highlighting their high levels of defense spending and strong support for Ukraine.
All three Baltic nations are on track to meet US President Donald Trump’s demand that NATO members spend 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, Smith said, with Latvia becoming the first NATO country to legally commit to that target.
The Baltic states have also donated large portions of their defense budgets to Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion.
Democratic Representative Bill Keating of Massachusetts said the three countries had provided support equivalent to roughly 13 percent of their annual defense spending.
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“To match Estonia’s donation to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP, the United States would need to provide more than a trillion dollars,” Keating said.
Smith called the Baltic countries “among the most pro-transatlantic and pro-US voices in Europe” and said they consistently backed Washington on NATO spending, energy security, and support for Ukraine.
“The United States partnerships with the Baltic countries are strong, durable, and strategically vital,” he said.
The official highlighted Germany’s deployment of a brigade to Lithuania, NATO air policing missions, and multinational battle groups across the Baltics as evidence the alliance was strengthening deterrence in the region.
“NATO’s force planning is essential,” Smith said. “It’s important that NATO has repositioned forces to provide a forward-deployed deterrence capability.”
Still, several Democrats repeatedly pressed Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Smith over reports that some arms deliveries to Baltic countries had been delayed because of US military commitments linked to the conflict with Iran.
Smith acknowledged delays affecting “certain munitions” but said Washington remained committed to delivering weapons systems purchased by Baltic allies.
“We are working very hard to ensure that those deliveries come back online as quickly as possible,” he said.
Hybrid Warfare
Much of the hearing focused on hybrid threats, including cyberattacks, drone incursions, sabotage of undersea infrastructure, and disinformation campaigns blamed on Russia and Belarus.
Smith said NATO and the Baltic countries were increasingly focused on defending against drone warfare and cyber operations, lessons drawn directly from the battlefield in Ukraine.
“Latvia, for example, is the largest drone producer in Europe after only Ukraine,” he said.
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Smith said the Baltic nations had severed all ties with Russian energy imports in February 2025 and now sourced roughly 80 percent of their liquefied natural gas imports from the US.
He also warned that Baltic governments increasingly viewed China through the lens of Beijing’s support for Moscow’s war effort.
“China provides about 80 percent of dual-use goods for the Russian defense industrial base,” Smith said. “They are drawing conclusions and cooling their economic relations with China as a result.”
Ukraine Peace Talks
The hearing also exposed divisions over the Trump administration’s handling of negotiations aimed at ending the Ukraine war.
Democrats repeatedly questioned whether Washington was pressing hard enough against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Asked whether Ukraine or NATO could trust Putin to honor a peace settlement, Smith said Kyiv would likely rely on security arrangements rather than Moscow’s assurances alone.
“I certainly doubt Ukraine would trust Putin’s word in an agreement,” Smith said.
He argued that the strongest long-term deterrent would be “a strong, well-armed, technologically advanced Ukrainian military.”
Smith declined to discuss details of ongoing negotiations but said progress had been made on prisoner exchanges and discussions surrounding a “secure peace.”
On May 15, Ukraine and Russia both confirmed that 205 prisoners from each side had been exchanged as part of an agreement linked to a temporary cease-fire brokered last week by Trump.
“We are 100 percent committed to achieving a peaceful settlement of this war,” Smith said.