Optimism And Obstacles: What To Watch After The Trump-Zelenskyy Talks On Russia’s War In Ukraine

After two hours of talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Florida on December 28, US President Donald Trump said they were “getting a lot closer” to agreement on a deal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

But he gave no details other than to warn that “one or two very thorny issues” remain, including the fate of territory in the Donbas region.

Here’s what to watch for as the full-scale war heads toward the four-year mark and the US push for peace continues.

US Pressure On Kyiv…

At times since he started his current term last January with peace in Ukraine as a prominent goal, Trump has set firm or implied deadlines for both Moscow and Kyiv. At one point in November, it seemed he was all but demanding Ukraine take or leave a 28-point peace proposal -- which many saw as skewed in Russia’s favor -- by Thanksgiving Day.

Trump later made clear there was no such ultimatum, saying the “deadline for me is when it’s over,” and he has repeated similar signals in recent weeks. Still, while he said after the talks with Zelenskyy that a deal may be “closer than ever,” he also said it would be clear “in a few weeks” whether negotiations will lead to peace: “It’s possible it doesn’t happen.”

So, one key question is whether the US will pivot back to public pressure on Zelenskyy and Ukraine to agree on a draft deal -- and what it would say about territory, particularly in the Donbas, where Russia occupies nearly all of the Luhansk region and about 77 percent of the Donetsk region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who spoke to Trump by phone hours before Trump welcomed Zelenskyy at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, has consistently demanded that Ukraine withdraw its forces from the portion of the Donetsk region that they still hold. His spokesman repeated that demand on December 29.

Zelenskyy says handing Russia territory it has failed to capture in years of fighting that has killed many soldiers on both sides would reward Moscow for its aggression. He has said Ukraine could withdraw but that the area should be a demilitarized zone, possibly patrolled by Ukrainian police, and that Russian troops should also pull back a comparable distance.

Neither Trump nor Zelenskyy went into much detail about the Donbas in their public comments on their talks, which focused on key aspects of a 20-point draft peace plan that emerged after Kyiv and its European backers pushed back against the 28-point US proposal.

But Trump suggested that if Ukraine does not reach an agreement soon, it risks losing the rest of the region -- which Putin has vowed to capture by force if Russia does not receive it through diplomacy.

“Some of that land has been taken, some of that land...may be taken over the next period of a number of months, and you’re better off making a deal now,” Trump said of Ukraine.

Also worth watching is whether Kyiv and Washington can bridge remaining gaps over two other key issues: security guarantees for Ukraine and control over the massive Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, which Russia has controlled since shortly after the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

…Or On Moscow?

Trump has also threatened at times to step up pressure on Russia if he feels it is foot-dragging over a peace deal. Aside from the imposition of sanctions on oil giants Rosneft and LUKoil in October, the US has taken few steps in that direction during Trump’s current term.

In comments after the call with Putin and the meeting with Zelenskyy, Trump did not signal that further pressure on Moscow is imminent. He said that he understood Putin’s opposition to a temporary cease-fire, which Zelenskyy suggests is needed if Ukraine is to hold a referendum on a proposed peace deal, and that “Russia wants [the war] ended.”

The Russia Factor

Many in Ukraine and Europe say there’s little or no evidence that Moscow wants peace on anything other than its own terms. Russian officials have stated or signaled opposition to reported aspects of the 20-point draft and disappointment over points that are apparently absent from it, such as a binding bar on Ukraine ever joining NATO.

On the Donbas, there has been an almost daily drumbeat suggesting that Moscow will not relent on its demand for control over the entire region.

In addition to a 4 1/2-hour televised performance on December 19, Putin has donned camouflage for appearances at military-related events that he has used to project confidence that Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield -- amid slow, costly advances and occasional retreats -- and signal it feels no need to make substantial concessions.

Major air attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities have contained no suggestion of a desire for peace.

And beyond the Donbas, Russia has sent mixed signals about whether it is prepared to freeze the front lines in place in the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions, which it partially occupies, in the event of a peace deal -- as even the 28-point plan called for.

Putin has suggested several times recently that he has not have dropped a demand for full control over those two regions. On December 29, he reportedly ordered the Russian military to continue to seek control of the city of Zaporizhzhya, which remains in Ukraine's hands.

Any substantial change in Russia’s messaging -- whether in tone or content -- could signal potential readiness for a deal that, at least for the time being, would leave Putin short of objectives ranging from territorial conquest to the subjugation of Ukraine and weakening of NATO and the West.