Once Washington's Closest Caucasus Partner, Georgia To Watch Vance Visit From The Outside

When leaving Tbilisi for the airport, travelers pass along George W Bush Avenue, named after the former US president following his landmark 2005 visit -- a reminder of a period when Georgia was among Washington’s closest partners in the South Caucasus.

That road now appears to be a dead end, or at least closed for repairs.

Once Washington’s closest partner in the South Caucasus, Georgia now finds itself stranded in US regional diplomacy. And, as Tbilisi deepens ties with China while maintaining its engagement with Russia, Washington’s attention is increasingly shifting toward Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Nowhere was that more evident than at the recent launch of US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace initiative. Azerbaijan and Armenia received invitations to what the American leader calls “the most consequential bodies ever created.” Georgia was left out.

Now Vice President JD Vance is arriving in the region on February 9 -- the highest ranking US official to visit the region since Joe Biden came as vice president in 2009 -- and Tbilisi can only look on from the outside as he visits Baku and Yerevan.

“Where do we stand today? Donald Trump created a Peace Council and invited almost every country in the region, except Georgia. Azerbaijan declares that transit will no longer pass through Georgia. Armenia also wants to open its border with Azerbaijan. Where is Georgia? On what platform? In what discussions? Whose allies are we, after all?” asked Georgian foreign policy analyst Giorgi Tumasyan.

Two decades ago, the answer to Tumasyan’s question was clear: Georgia was widely seen as the most Western-leaning democracy in the South Caucasus.

Diminished Role

For decades, Georgia’s importance rested partly on the unresolved conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia served as a key transit route for Caspian energy exports and as Armenia’s main gateway to the outside world due to closed borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

As Baku and Yerevan move closer through a US-backed peace process, analysts say Georgia’s role as an indispensable transit corridor may diminish.

But Tbilisi’s drift really began after Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, as Western partners raised concerns about democratic backsliding with the rise of the party of Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Russia-friendly billionaire considered the country's most powerful political figure.

Georgian Dream claimed victory in a 2024 election, but the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said the process was marred by instances of vote-buying, double-voting, physical violence, and intimidation.

Mass street protests over the result were met a violent response from security forces, prompting US sanctions in December 2024.

Relations with Washington soured further last year after the Trump administration came to power.

Outgoing US Ambassador to Tbilisi Robin Dunnigan told RFE/RL in an interview in July that the Georgian Dream party leadership sent a private letter to the White House that was “threatening, insulting, unserious, and was received extremely poorly in Washington.”

Dunnigan said she traveled to Washington in the first days of the Trump administration to meet senior officials and then returned to Georgia with US conditions to reset relations.

She said these were 2-3 simple steps that included stopping “anti-American rhetoric,” and that she then relayed them in a meeting with Georgian Foreign Minister Maka Botchorishvili.

The private letter came three days later.

Dunnigan said the Trump administration was so surprised by the content of the letter that it “took us a while to come up with a response.”

That delay prompted a complaint from Tbilisi that included harsh words about Biden-era sanctions -- which are still in force -- and a bill in Congress called the MEGOBARI Act (short for Mobilizing and Enhancing Georgia's Options for Building Accountability, Resilience, and Independence Act) that seeks increased scrutiny of the Georgian government's actions and its ties to Russia and other authoritarian regimes like China.

Then an additional problem emerged.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepared a response to the private Georgian Dream letter but told Dunnigan to deliver it to Ivanishvili, who refused to meet her, saying that he felt it was wrong to do so while he himself was still under US sanctions. He added that the sanctions amounted to “personal blackmail.”

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US Ambassador Reveals 'Insulting' Georgian Letter

“If the de facto leader of this country is unwilling to meet with leadership of the United States or receive a message from the Trump administration he is, in fact, putting his personal interests against the interests of the Georgian people,” Dunnigan said.

Pivoting Eastward

Today, analysts say Tbilisi is gradually pivoting eastward -- toward China and Russia – in sharp contrast to Azerbaijan and Armenia, which are strengthening ties with Washington.

And while some analysts and officials note that Vance’s trip is meant to highlight Trump’s success in negotiating an end to decades of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Karabakh region, others say the snub is still evident.

“In a region like the Caucasus, even a small amount of attention from the US can make a significant impact,” said Joshua Kucera, a senior South Caucasus analyst at Crisis Group.

“Both sides in Georgia’s sharply polarized politics have been hoping for Trump to weigh in with support for their side, but the White House so far has shown little interest in the country that used to be a close US partner."

Georgian leaders have also been largely absent from high-level Western forums such as the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian have both met Trump at the White House, while senior Georgian officials have not been seen in Washington for years.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze in January reiterated that Georgia is “ready to renew the strategic partnership from a clean slate and with a concrete roadmap,” but analysts say it will take more given Tbilisi’s eastward moves.

Vakhtang Partsvania, an economics professor at Caucasus University, said Georgia’s growing alignment with China has been particularly damaging to its standing in Washington.

“By elevating China to a strategic partner, as was done by the Georgian Dream, inviting Chinese companies into critical infrastructure like the Anaklia deep port construction project, and attacking long-time pro-Georgia advocates in Congress, Georgia has undermined the very coalition in Washington that supported it for decades. That’s why we see frustration -- and silence in response,” Partsvania told RFE/RL.

Analysts also say Georgia’s pivot eastward offers limited benefits.

Georgia lacks deep historical or cultural ties with China, and despite visa-free travel and a strategic partnership agreement, Beijing largely views Georgia as part of Russia’s sphere of influence, Kornely Kakachia, a political science professor at Tbilisi State University told RFE/RL.

As for Moscow, Russia remains consumed by its war in Ukraine.

“There is a belief within Georgian Dream that Russia might eventually reward loyalty -- perhaps even by restoring Georgia’s territorial integrity,” Kakachia said, referring to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the Georgian regions controlled by Russia since the 2008 war.

“But this is not happening, and this is a huge problem for Georgian Dream, which was calculating based on that sort of outcome”, he added.