Amid Specter Of Possible US Strikes, Iran's Neighbors Brace For Blowback

As the United States expands its military presence in the Middle East amid growing expectations of a strike against Iran, countries around the Middle East are bracing for another conflict in the region.

US President Donald Trump gave his starkest warning yet on January 28, telling Tehran "time is running out" to make a deal on its nuclear and missile programs or face a "far worse" attack than the joint Israeli-US air strikes that decimated nuclear facilities around Iran. The comments came as US warships move into the region's waters.

In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqhchi said his country is ready to “respond immediately and powerfully” to any possible attack.

Concerns In The Gulf

“Countries with a US troop presence, such as those in the Gulf Cooperation Council, are concerned about some form of Iranian [counter] attack,” said Farzan Sabet, a managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

The GCC comprises the oil-rich Sunni Arab monarchies of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar. Washington has major military bases in most GCC countries, while others provide access and support to American troops.

This week, Saudi Arabia followed the UAE announcing that it will not allow “its airspace or territory to be used for any military actions against Iran,” a move analysts said appears aimed at trying to head off military action by Washington.

“Direct attacks, either by the Islamic republic or its proxies, on energy infrastructure in the region would be disruptive for the global economy,” Sabet said.

For decades, most of the Arab Gulf nations have either been rivals of Iran's Shi’ite clerical regime or had strained ties with Tehran. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain have been targets of attacks by Iran or its proxies, such as the Huthis in Yemen.

The GCC nations produce one-quarter of the world's oil supply and more than 10 percent of global natural gas. They are also vital to global trade and transport, and home to millions of expatriate workers.

Pier Camillo Falasca, policy affairs manager at the Euro-Gulf Information Centre think tank in Rome, sees Gulf nations focused on two immediate goals.

“They want to keep the crisis from spreading and keep their own countries safe,” he said.

Falasca says that, despite their public postures, the Gulf nations are not opposed to regime change in Iran.

“They are aware of the cost of a possible chaotic transition,” he said. “Their interest is in a managed and orderly transition, not a vacuum.”

Falasca says Gulf countries are working hard to beef up the security of their ports, airports, and energy infrastructure while preparing their populations for possible hard times.

“They cannot afford any spillovers, be that in the form of militias, maritime disruption or shocks to trade and energy markets,” he said.

Sabet agrees.

He said that at the height of recent protests in Iran, the Gulf nations were able to convince President Trump to delay an attack on Iran amid reports of thousands of protesters being killed by security forces.

“These countries wanted the Trump administration to get the right set of assets in place in order to better manage any fallout,” he said.

According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), as of January 29, it had verified 6,373 deaths, most of whom were civilian protestors, while still reviewing over 17,000 deaths.

In a sign that Washington wanted to avoid using forces from around the Gulf, Trump said, “a massive armada is heading to Iran” instead.

Washington has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group to the region this week. It includes an aircraft carrier and other large warships capable of precision missiles and air strikes, and can even support ground operations.

US media reported on January 29 that an additional warship, the USS Delbert D. ⁠Black, had entered the region as well.

Other Neighbors

Sabet said that Iran’s next-door neighbor, Iraq, might get embroiled in Iran’s potential conflict with the US, even while its government and most of its population would like to stay away from such entanglement.

“There are actors within Iraq which could draw their country into that conflict,” he said.

The Popular Mobilization Forces, an official Iraqi security organization, comprises several Iran-aligned armed militias. These groups have previously attacked US forces.

Adding to fears that Iraq may side with Tehran, Iran-backed Nouri al-Maliki has become the main candidate to become the country's next prime minister.

Sabet said Iraq would also join Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan in bracing for long-term consequences of a conflict in Iran, which could prompt refugee flows or fuel ethnic unrest.

More than 1.5 million Arabs in Iran predominantly populate the southwestern province of Khuzestan, which borders Iraq.

Azeris, Iran’s largest ethnic minority, live in the northwestern regions of Iran bordering Azerbaijan. But relations between the two majority Shi’ite neighbors have been marred by mistrust and hostility.

Iran’s most volatile southeastern province, Sistan-Baluchistan, shares a more than 900-kilometer-long border with Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan Province. Both regions, predominantly populated by the Sunni Baluch, have been embroiled in armed separatist and Islamist insurgencies for decades.

In northwestern and western Iran, Sunni Kurds share ties with fellow Kurds in northern Iraq and southeastern Turkey.

“These countries are definitely concerned with what type of instability would emanate from the militancy of ethno-linguistic groups,” Sabet said.