Daniel Kimmage

May 14, 2005

Uzbekistan: Bloody Friday In The Ferghana Valley

Islam Karimov has ruled Uzbekistan since independence in 1990 Uzbekistan's Ferghana Valley, the country's most densely peopled region and the heartland of its discontents, careened into violence on Friday, 13 May, as government forces opened fire on demonstrators in the city of Andijon in a bloody close to a day of unrest. Yet even as Uzbek President Islam Karimov eliminated any doubts about his willingness to use force to crush threats to his rule, he raised the frightening prospect of spiraling retaliatory violence in Central Asia's most populous country.

May 13, 2005

Uzbekistan: Economic Concerns Primary In Andijon

Wild-eyed religious extremists are the stock characters for most discussions of potential unrest in Uzbekistan. But while outbreaks of violence in 2004 have drawn media scrutiny, the daily cares of most people in Uzbekistan are far removed from the "Al-Qaeda links" and "terror plots" that mainstream media find so compelling. The following story, based primarily on reporting by RFE/RL's Uzbek Service, shows that more prosaic concerns are capable of bringing ordinary people out into the streets (this article originally published in "RFE/RL Central Asia Report," 29 September 2004).

May 10, 2005

Uzbekistan: Police Crush Protest In Tashkent

As midnight neared in Tashkent on 3 May, truncheon-wielding riot police set on a small encampment of protesters that included many women and children. Police herded them roughly into buses for rapid removal from the capital. By morning, city workers had eliminated all traces of the event. Uzbekistan has seen larger protests recently without such forceful police intervention. What was different about this protest? And why did it provoke such a violent reaction?

May 04, 2005

Kyrgyzstan: Follow The Money -- The Akaev Investigation

High-level corruption within the government was one reason protesters wanted President Akaev to leave office Back in the 1970s, two young American journalists got a bit of simple advice from an inside source in the administration of President Richard Nixon: "Follow the money." They did, and the resulting scandal toppled the president. Thirty years later and a world away, Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev fled as a throng of enraged demonstrators ransacked his office. Now, the resulting scandal is throwing light on some of the financial dealings that contributed to the protestors' rage. But even as the postrevolutionary furor in Kyrgyzstan proves that nowhere is the dictum "follow the money" more relevant than in post-Communist kleptocracies, it is also highlighting the immense difficulties that beset the would-be cleansers of corruption's Aegean stables.

April 25, 2005

Uzbekistan: Journalists Defend Jailed Colleague

25 April 2005 (RFE/RL) -- Friction between journalists and Uzbekistan's authorities is nothing new. But the recent arrest of Sobirjon Yoqubov (spelled "Yakubov" in many reports), a correspondent for the newspaper "Hurriyat," has sparked a reaction that goes beyond expressions of concern from international organizations. This time, some of the jailed journalist's colleagues in Uzbekistan have mobilized in his support.

April 19, 2005

Kyrgyzstan: How Wealthy Is The Ousted Kyrgyz Leader's Family?

[For more on President Akaev's downfall and its causes, click here --> /specials/kyrgyzelections/ .]

April 14, 2005

Kyrgyzstan: Killing Points To Postrevolutionary Dangers

Kudaibergenov was an ally of Feliks Kulov Gunshots rang out in Orto-Say, a town about 8 kilometers from the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek, on the night of 10 April. The victim was Usen Kudaibergenov, a prominent Kyrgyz personality who gained fame as a stuntman in Soviet films. But this time the bullets were real, and when his two assailants fled, Kudaibergenov was dead. He played a visible role in the upheaval that followed the ouster of President Askar Akaev and was an ally of the leading candidate for the newly scheduled 10 July presidential elections. The motives behind Kudaibergenov's killing remain mysterious, but the fact of his death points to the dangers that lurk in postrevolutionary Kyrgyzstan.

April 12, 2005

Kyrgyzstan: The Failure Of Managed Democracy

Kyrgyz police arrest a protester during demonstrations RFE/RL analyst Daniel Kimmage on 7 April testified before the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (Helsinki Commission) on the causes and consequences of Kyrgyzstan's revolution.

April 04, 2005

Kyrgyzstan: How Bishkek's Revolution Happened So Fast

The protests in Bishkek turned violent quickly One thing is clear about the events that took place in Bishkek on 24 March: They ousted President Askar Akaev and sent him across the border at a run. Everything else raises questions. What were the opposition's plans and preparations for 24 March? What caused the confrontation that led to the storming of the presidential administration? And why did police fail to defend the seat of government?

March 24, 2005

Analysis: After The Dust Settles

Kyrgyz opposition supporters torch a vehicle outside a government building captured by the opposition in Bishkek today. In a few tense hours on 24 March, the political tremors that had been gathering strength in Kyrgyzstan since parliamentary elections in late February converged on the country's capital in a political upheaval that bore all the hallmarks of a revolution. --> /featuresarticle/2005/03/b13e49ac-63da-4fca-a86a-c1d18bb07278.html

March 23, 2005

Analysis: Uneasy Days In Kyrgyzstan

Opposition leader Roza Otunbaeva (file photo) Postelection protests in Kyrgyzstan began to take on the classic earmarks of genuine unrest on 20 March. For several days the authorities had stood by as opposition demonstrations intensified in southern Kyrgyzstan. Protestors seized the Jalal-Abad provincial administration on 4 March and repeated the feat in Osh on 18 March. On 19 March, several leading opposition figures held a kurultai, or congress, in Osh to select a "people's governor" -- Anvar Artykov, a member of the Ata-Jurt opposition movement and an ethnic Uzbek (an important detail in Kyrgyzstan's south, which borders on Uzbekistan and is home to a large Uzbek population).

March 16, 2005

Analysis: Elections In Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan -- Antidote To Revolution?

Does Kyrgyz President Akaev (voting above) have an elixir for "revolutions?" As Kyrgyz voters cast their ballots in second-round parliamentary elections on 13 March, President Askar Akaev confidently explained to Russia's RTR television network that a "vaccine" exists to prevent Georgian- and Ukrainian-style revolutions.

March 08, 2005

Analysis: Uneasy Wait For Second Round Of Kyrgyz Elections

Protesters on 28 February Before Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary elections on 27 February, observers wondered whether Bishkek would join Tbilisi and Kyiv as the latest post-Soviet capital to host a revolution, President Askar Akaev and his government warned that no amount of outside meddling would suffice to introduce such a contagion to the body politic, and the country's fissiparous opposition did its best to close ranks and prepare for what it perceived as a crucial test.

March 02, 2005

Analysis: Kyrgyz, Tajik Elections Present Familiar Issues, New Context

Voters in Kyrgyzstan on election day Viewed purely within the context of Central Asia's uneven engagement with democracy, parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on 27 February did not mark a radical departure from years past. Foreign observers and the domestic opposition pointed to the authorities' use of administrative resources and manipulation of the media environment.

February 25, 2005

Analysis: Kyrgyzstan Rises To Meet Elections

For news, background, and analysis on Kyrgyzstan's 27 February parliamentary elections, see RFE/RL's webpage "Kyrgyzstan Votes 2005" --> /specials/kyrgyzelections/ .

February 23, 2005

Analysis: Central Asia Provides Window On Russia-U.S. Relations

When U.S. President George Bush meets with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Bratislava on 24 February, Central Asia will not be an agenda-topping item. But as a region where U.S. and Russian interests intersect, Central Asia provides a window on the dynamics that dominate the two countries' uneasy relationship in the former Soviet Union.

February 22, 2005

Analysis: Uzbek Eminence Falls From Grace

Critical articles in Uzbekistan's timid official press are sufficiently rare that their appearance generally sparks speculation in the grand old spirit of what used to be called Kremlinology, with observers eagerly teasing out hints of hidden power struggles and coded references to coming policy changes.

February 09, 2005

Analysis: The Fog Of Information War

Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev As Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan prepare for parliamentary elections on 27 February, information wars are heating up in both countries. The basic ammunition is the word, but battles go far beyond dueling declarations to include struggles for control over the means of generating and disseminating information. Tough tactics are the order of the day, with opposition newspapers facing legal travails, duplicate organizations springing up to sow confusion, and dubious leaks poisoning the atmosphere. But the real victim is the political process itself, which can easily lose its way in the fog of information war.

February 04, 2005

Analysis: Fear Of Orange

Could it happen again? One of the most significant events in the recent history of Central Asia may have actually occurred in Kyiv in late 2004, when thousands of demonstrators took to the streets to protest falsified election results.

January 21, 2005

Analysis: Nipping Orange Roses In The Bud -- Post-Soviet Elites Against Revolution

Could Kyrgyzstan see a "Yellow Revolution"? In the aftermath of Georgia's "Rose Revolution" and Ukraine's "Orange Revolution," speculation has largely focused on a logical question: Who's next, or which county in the post-Soviet world is the likely candidate for the next revolution? Nervous ruling elites from Moscow to Bishkek surely wondered as they followed events in Tbilisi and Kyiv, but the real question for them is how to prevent such unwelcome developments at home.