There is an interesting, potentially provocative, op-ed from Vladislav Inozemtsev in "The Moscow Times" today on how the economic fallout of the Ukraine crisis probably won't have that much of an impact on Russians, mainly because Russia is not a normal economy:
Many politicians sincerely believe that Russia's economy has virtually stopped growing, in light of current tensions between the West and Russia resulting from Russia's annexation of Crimea and the economic sanctions that followed.
They also believe that Russia's economy may face additional challenges due to new restrictions imposed — and that this will reduce the government's credibility and so create problems for President Vladimir Putin.
For better or for worse, nothing like this will happen. Russia today is a unique place where the rate of economic growth changes neither the behavior of elites nor the loyalty of the population. Upon a closer look, it is easy to realize why — but to do this one must forget how economies are supposed to work.
First, Russia is not an industrial, but rather a resource economy. The well-being of its citizens depends primarily on just one sector of the economy. Export duties on oil and gas, as well as federal mining tax contribute 49.4 percent of federal budget's revenues — although crude oil and natural gas production has not increased since the mid-2000s. In 2013 only 8 percent more oil was pumped in Russia than in 2006, and 1 percent less of gas.
Both the political situation's stability and the level of popular support for the government depend not on growth in the real sector but from the dynamics of personal incomes — and these hang not so much on development but on oil and gas.
Read the entire article here
Shadowy Putin proxy @MedvedchukVV denies he represents separatists in Ukraine talks, despite OSCE claim to contrary https://t.co/huy54I7V5M
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2014
@maxseddon @ChristopherJM omg that CHEST HAIR. how had I not seen his facebook page before??
— Laura Mills (@lauraphylmills) June 25, 2014
@ChristopherJM @lauraphylmills that's what gives him away as a fierce Russian bear and not a docile Ukrainian vedmed
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 25, 2014
Dmitry Tymchuk's military blog: No peace despite declared ceasefire http://t.co/PXMjeecjOl pic.twitter.com/sdxg6MPjnR
— Kyiv Post (@KyivPost) June 25, 2014
Moscow revoking 'right' to send army to Ukraine doesn't end conflict. Kiev says pro-Russia militants violated ceasefire 44 times in 3 days.
— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) June 25, 2014
Obama Said to Ready Sanctions on Russian Industries Over #Ukraine http://t.co/fxb1i5hX58
— Jason Corcoran (@jason_corcoran) June 25, 2014
Baby killed with shot from grenade launcher in Luhansk region http://t.co/QcksYHIPn6
— Kyiv Post (@KyivPost) June 25, 2014
Ceasefire in Luhansk: business as usual UKR forces get shot at http://t.co/DtiWJyaa9I
— Ryskeldi Satke (@RyskeldiSatke) June 25, 2014
the day UKR copter downed near Slavyansk, 1 of Donetsk People's republic top dogs calls ceasefire a bluff https://t.co/aISPnpeOnX
— Ryskeldi Satke (@RyskeldiSatke) June 25, 2014
Good morning. We'll start our live blog today with this update from our news desk, summarizing the international response to the fatal shooting down of a Ukrainian helicopter in the east of the country:
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has warned he may scrap a cease-fire after pro-Russian separatists shot down a Ukrainian helicopter.
The White House says U.S. Vice President Joe Biden called Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko yesterday and "offered condolences" for the deaths of nine servicemen who were killed when separatists shot down the helicopter they were travelling in.
That incident near the eastern city of Slovyansk yesterday evening came amid attacks by pro-Russian insurgents on Donetsk airport and checkpoints that led to several injuries and one death, despite separatist leaders agreeing on June 23 to a cease-fire that had been declared by Poroshenko.
In his telephone call, Biden also highlighted "the importance of having monitors in place to verify violations of the cease-fire, as well as the need to stop the supply of weapons and militants from across the border."
It was Biden's third call with Poroshenko in as many days.
Poroshenko is also due to discuss the helicopter incident with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a teleconference today that should also include German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande.
Separately, U.S. President Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David Cameron discussed possible new sanctions on Russia.
A White House statement said that Obama and Cameron "agreed that should Russia fail to take these immediate steps to de-escalate the situation in eastern Ukraine, the United States and the European Union would work to implement additional coordinated measures to impose costs on Russia."