A low-flying Ukrainian fighter jet has been shot down over territory controlled by separatists near #MH17 wreckage site. #Ukraine
— Douglas Herbert (@dougf24) August 8, 2014
Georgetown University's Anders Aslund has been ruminating on the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine. Drawing on what happened during the Soviet-Finnish Winter War of 1939-1940, he argues that any Russian incursion into Ukraine might not be a foregone conclusion:
The Finns had to take on the Soviet attack without any hope of significant international support. The international community condemned the Soviet Union. The League of Nations deemed the attack illegal and expelled the Soviet Union swiftly on December 14, 1939. But the Finns had to fight on their own just like the Ukrainians. It was a very bloody war. In the course of three months, the Finnish soldiers killed 127,000 Soviet soldiers while losing 23,000 of their own.
Despite deploying 800,000 troops in the end, Stalin failed to conquer Finland. Rather than sacrifice more Russians and aggravate his embarrassment, he yielded to the brave Finns and settled. Rather liberally, he claimed only 11 percent of Finland’s territory in the Moscow Peace Treaty on March 13, 1940. No mediator was needed and hardly any international leader bothered to talk to Stalin. The peace treaty was bitter for Finland, which lost 11 percent of its territory, but it maintained independence. Goliath does not always win.
Ukraine is in a far stronger position than Finland was in 1939. However terrible Putin is, Stalin was incomparably worse. The clownish Moscow PR man Alexander Borodai, who postures as self-appointed “prime minister” in eastern Ukraine, is no Stalinist like Kuusinen. Unlike Putin, Stalin enjoyed some important international support because Nazi Germany recognized Finland as in the Soviet sphere of interest in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of August 1939. Stalin had a clear plan to conquer Finland, while Putin does not seem to know what he wants in Ukraine but is improvising. Ukraine is ten times larger than Finland and Stalin was prepared to sacrifice far larger military resources than Putin is. The Ukrainian troops have already liberated three-quarters of the territory held by the rebels in Donbas and we are waiting for the battle for Donetsk.
Right now, Putin is facing a pivotal choice. Either Russia invades Ukraine with regular military forces on a massive scale, or the Ukrainian military will oust the Russian terrorists. He should take his cue from Stalin in this case. Sometimes it is better to lose face.
Read the entire article here
Gov't daily RG tells Russians to eat Russian food, with this 2010 pic of Putin/Medvedev posing with Russian products pic.twitter.com/kd86hhVs6V
— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) August 8, 2014
RT @UKinUkraine: @LyallGrant: Continuing separatist violence responsible for worsening humanitarian situation #Donbas http://t.co/kqam96H12j
— Simon Smith (@SimonSmithFCO) August 8, 2014
At this rate, it seems this word will probably be included in the next update of the OED:
Нелицеприятный мем о Путине набирает обороты. #путин #putin #звезды pic.twitter.com/tFKClIjh1C
— Я журналист (@newreporter_org) August 8, 2014
Sentsov, Crimean filmmaker removed to Moscow prison for "terrorism" [being v pro-Ukrainian, it seems] told will remain in custody until Oct
— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) August 8, 2014
So Russian state-run Vesti/Rossiya 24 are broadcasting live in a very public place overlooking the Maidan. Not banned at all from Kiev.
— Daniel Sandford (@BBCDanielS) August 8, 2014
Via my friend Natalia Loseva: more empty shelves in Moscow today. (To all of you who think I am lying about them) pic.twitter.com/p6ylADP9xf
— Natalia Antonova (@NataliaAntonova) August 8, 2014
Shelling of residential blocks in Donetsk. Unclear who is doing it, and why. Via @NewsDonetsk pic.twitter.com/D87IwPyjbR
— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) August 8, 2014
Here's an interesting video from our multimedia department of the self-styled Prime Minister of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic, Aleksandr Borodai, explaining his reasons why he is resigning. Apparently, he's got an offer of another job and he was only an interim "crisis manager" in any event.
