Billionaire investor and philanthropist George Soros has taken to the pages of "The New York Review of Books" to warn of "a challenge from Russia to [Europe's] very existence."
In a piece titled "Wake Up, Europe," the Hungarian-born American behind the Open Society Foundations says the International Monetary Fund (IMF) "should provide an immediate cash injection of at least $20 billion, with a promise of more when needed."
Here are some highlights:
"Putin will await the results of the elections on October 26 and then offer Poroshenko the gas and other benefits he has been dangling on condition that he appoint a prime minister acceptable to Putin. That would exclude anybody associated with the victory of the forces that brought down the Viktor Yanukovych government by resisting it for months on the Maidan—Independence Square."
OOO
"Western authorities have ignored the importance of what I call the “new Ukraine” that was born in the successful resistance on the Maidan. Many officials with a history of dealing with Ukraine have difficulty adjusting to the revolutionary change that has taken place there. The recently signed Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine was originally negotiated with the Yanukovych government. This detailed road map now needs adjustment to a totally different situation. For instance, the road map calls for the gradual replacement and retraining of the judiciary over five years whereas the public is clamoring for immediate and radical renewal. As the new mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, put it, “If you put fresh cucumbers into a barrel of pickles, they will soon turn into pickles.”
OOO
"It is high time for the members of the European Union to wake up and behave as countries indirectly at war. They are better off helping Ukraine to defend itself than having to fight for themselves. One way or another, the internal contradiction between being at war and remaining committed to fiscal austerity has to be eliminated. Where there is a will, there is a way.
"In its last progress report, issued in early September, the IMFestimated that in a worst-case scenario Ukraine would need additional support of $19 billion. Conditions have deteriorated further since then. After the Ukrainian elections the IMF will need to reassess its baseline forecast in consultation with the Ukrainian government. It should provide an immediate cash injection of at least $20 billion, with a promise of more when needed. Ukraine’s partners should provide additional financing conditional on implementation of the IMF-supported program, at their own risk, in line with standard practice.
"The spending of borrowed funds is controlled by the agreement between the IMF and the Ukrainian government. Four billion dollars would go to make up the shortfall in Ukrainian payments to date; $2 billion would be assigned to repairing the coal mines in eastern Ukraine that remain under the control of the central government; and $2 billion would be earmarked for the purchase of additional gas for the winter. The rest would replenish the currency reserves of the central bank.
"The new assistance package would include a debt exchange that would transform Ukraine’s hard currency Eurobond debt (which totals almost $18 billion) into long-term, less risky bonds. This would lighten Ukraine’s debt burden and bring down its risk premium. By participating in the exchange, bondholders would agree to accept a lower interest rate and wait longer to get their money back. The exchange would be voluntary and market-based so that it could not be mischaracterized as a default. Bondholders would participate willingly because the new long-term bonds would be guaranteed—but only partially—by the US or Europe, much as the US helped Latin America emerge from its debt crisis in the 1980s with so-called Brady bonds (named for US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady)."
OOO
"It is also high time for the European Union to take a critical look at itself. There must be something wrong with the EU if Putin’s Russia can be so successful even in the short term. The bureaucracy of the EU no longer has a monopoly of power and it has little to be proud of. It should learn to be more united, flexible, and efficient. And Europeans themselves need to take a close look at the new Ukraine. That could help them recapture the original spirit that led to the creation of the European Union. The European Union would save itself by saving Ukraine."
European Parliament President Martin Schulz at a news conference in Brussels on the upcoming Ukrainian election:
"Ukraine has already acquired a little bit more stability after the election of President [Petro] Poroshenko. Countries in crisis need strong institutions and the acting Rada (Ukrainian parliament) is for sure not a Rada representing the political tendencies of the country and the will of citizens. Therefore, yes, I expect that a new Rada will build a new government. My feeling is that there is a chance for a [future] Rada working strongly and constructively with Poroshenko and that could lead to more coherence and more stability in the country."
From our newsroom:
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine says it successfully tested a drone in eastern Ukraine.
The unarmed drone will reportedly be among three used to observe the shaky cease-fire between government forces and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The Austrian-built drone was tested on October 23 near the port city of Mariupol, near the conflict zone in the Donetsk region.
The OSCE has received two drones and is expecting a third one for use in recording truce violations and monitoring the general security situation in eastern Ukraine, where the two sides have been fighting for six months.
Routine flights by the drones are expected to begin on October 24.
The September cease-fire agreement ended most hostilities in a conflict that has claimed more than 3,700 lives.
With reporting by Interfax
That concludes our live blogging for Thursday, October 23. Follow continuing coverage of Ukraine and all of RFE's broadcast region HERE.
From our newsroom:
Poland's former prime minister, Donald Tusk, has denied that Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Russia and Poland carve up Ukraine.
Tusk told Polish Radio TOK-FM on October 24 that Putin never made such an offer to him.
The claim was made by former foreign minister Radek Sikorsk,i who said in an interview with the U.S. internet magazine Politico on October 19 that the offer was made in a one-on-one meeting between Tusk and Putin in Moscow in 2008.
But Sikorski later backed away from the allegation, saying his memory had failed him.
Tusk said October 24 that Sikorski must have gotten the impression from alarming remarks Putin made at a NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008 in which he said Ukraine was an artificial country and that Russia has interests there.
