A leaked EU threat assessment seen by RFE/RL warns that terrorism and violent extremism "pose a significant threat to the EU," citing heightened risks from Afghanistan and Iran as well as negative spillover effects from the war in Ukraine.
The threat level in the EU, according to the assessment, "remains high" with "Islamist/jihadist terrorism" remaining the most prominent concern. That evaluation echoes that of Europol, the bloc's common law enforcement agency, which in March described the terrorist threat as "acute."
The 23-page document -- prepared by the Council of the European Union, which represents the governments of the 27 EU member states -- mostly covers developments and trends from 2025, instead of threats connected to the ongoing war in Iran. Despite that, the assessment still warns that the "escalation" in Iran has "raised additional concerns, such as the possible activation of proxy networks or sleeping cells to conduct retaliatory terrorist attacks within Europe," in particular in "countries with large or significant Jewish and Muslim communities."
On Afghanistan, the leaked threat assessment warns that the Islamic State Khorasan Province, a regional branch of the extremist group, is "one of the main external threats" to the Continent, adding the group "continues to be active, including in the spreading of online propaganda, targeting in particular young people."
There have been few confirmed terrorist attacks in Europe this year, but two Jewish men were recently stabbed in London in what British police described as a terror incident. That attack was claimed by Harakat Ashab Al-Yamin Al-Islamia, a pro-Iranian Islamist group with suspected links to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
The leaked document describes how the nature of threats has evolved: "Organized terrorist networks have lost much of their former operational reach, but the potential for individual actors to commit violence based on extremist inspiration persists."
As with the recent London attack, the assessment notes that attacks and plots by Islamists "predominantly involve easily accessible and unsophisticated means, in particular bladed and blunt force weapons, firearms, or improvised explosive devices and vehicles, with simple modus operandi."
One alarming new trend highlighted is the recruitment of minors as young as 12, especially on online platforms such as Telegram and TikTok. In response, one of the policy recommendations is that the EU should request these platforms slow down their so-called algorithmic amplification, which would make it much harder for minors to discover and engage with extremist content online.
The threat assessment notes the "impact of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine on the terrorist threat both in Europe and globally has so far been limited." But, at the same time, it warns that the flow of small arms and explosives coming from the war zone "will have consequences in the medium and long term."
Brussels is also concerned about the potential for Russian ex-combatants to enter the bloc and engage in criminal activities or other acts of violence. Russia has tapped an estimated 180,000 prisoners to fight in Ukraine. A proposal to impose a Schengen entry ban for these former soldiers is expected to come in June.
