WATCH: Lithuanian Prime Minister Warns Against Thinking Kremlin Is Bluffing Over Ukraine
KYIV -- Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte says that if Russia invades Ukraine, the European Union should act as quickly and decisively against Moscow as it did against Belarus when authorities in Minsk diverted a civilian airplane to arrest a dissident blogger and his girlfriend.
Speaking with RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service in an interview broadcast on February 12, Simonyte said that while the window for discussion may appear to be closing as Russia continues to amass troops -- estimated to be well over 100,000 -- in areas near its border with Ukraine, she believes there is still a chance that “diplomacy will prevail.”
And if not, “really tough” sanctions should quickly follow.
“Even the option of having sanctions is a very powerful tool because what the Kremlin must know is that…in a time of need, reaction can be very rapid. I would recall the situation with Lukashenka where the hijack of the Ryanair flight happened and the European Union was very quick to impose quite painful sanctions,” she said.
In Photos: New Images Capture Russia Massing Weaponry Around Ukraine
1/24In Crimea, a new deployment of troops and equipment is visible at the Oktyabrskoye airfield north of Simferopol on February 10.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
2/24Armored vehicles of a new deployment are visible in Slavne on Crimea's northwest coast on February 9.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
3/24Equipment and new deployments are visible in Novoozernoye, Crimea, on February 9.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
4/24A new deployment of troops, vehicles, and helicopters was identified on February 10 at the Zyabrovka airfield near Homel, Belarus, less than 25 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
5/24An overview of deployment areas near Rechytsa on February 9. Rechytsa is in Belarus's southeastern Homel region, some 55 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
6/24Armored vehicles and transporters arrive at Russia's Kursk training area on February 9, about 100 kilometers east of Ukraine.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
7/24Multiple battle groups and troop housing areas are visible at the Kursk training area on February 9.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
8/24Six SU-25 ground-attack aircraft are shown at Luninets airfield in Belarus. The image was taken on February 4. Luninets is in the southwestern Brest region, about 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
9/24Probable S-400 air-defense deployments at the Luninets airfield on February 4.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
10/24Probable SS-26 Iskander and multiple-rocket launchers deployed northwest of Yelsk on February 4. Yelsk is in Belarus's Homel region, about 20 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
11/24Troops and logistics-material-support units northwest of Yelsk on February 4.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
12/24A troop-housing area and vehicle park in Rechytsa on February 4.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
13/24A cluster of vehicles that reportedly includes truck-launched Iskander missile systems at the Osipovichi military training area, just south of Minsk. The image was taken on February 1.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
14/24A wider view of the Osipovichi military facility on February 1. Russian-made Iskander missiles are capable of precise strikes on targets up to 500 kilometers away.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
15/24An overview of vehicles and housing for troops near Baranovichi, Belarus, on January 29. Russia has placed troops and equipment inside Belarus in recent days as the countries prepare to hold joint military exercises.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
16/24A crowded military base in Bakhchisaray on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula on February 1.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
17/24Massed vehicles at a military base in Novoozernoye, Crimea, as photographed by satellite on February 1.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
18/24Military tents and armored vehicles in Yevpatoria, Crimea, on February 1.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
19/24An older satellite image shows snow-dusted Russian military vehicles parked in Yelnya, Russia, on January 19. Yelnya is in Russia's northwestern Smolensk region, around 120 kilometers from the border with Belarus and 260 kilometers from Ukraine.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
20/24Armored personnel carriers and trucks at Klimovo on January 19. The Klimovo military storage facility is located just 35 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
21/24Tents and housing for Russian troops in Yelnya on January 19.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
22/24Russian tanks and artillery-support equipment, some of which was apparently in use recently, parked in Yelnya on January 19.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
23/24Military equipment massed at the Klimovo storage facility on January 19. Older imagery from Google Maps of the same locationshows a fraction of the military vehicles present.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
24/24Military hardware at a railway yard in Klimovo on January 19. Recent videos have captured massive amounts of military hardware being transported by rail in western Russia.
Satellite photos from February 10 and earlier show a massive Russian buildup of military hardware, reportedly including ballistic-missile systems. Some of the buildup is in Belarus, not far from the Ukrainian border.
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The EU’s actions “proved that in circumstances that are unprecedented, the European Union can act unprecedentedly quick,” she added.
Simonyte was referring to the forced diversion last May of a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius orchestrated by Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka to arrest journalist Raman Pratasevich and his girlfriend, Sofia Sapega.
In response to the incident, the EU and countries including the United States, Canada, and Britain quickly announced harsh sanctions against Belarus.
Tensions over Ukraine have been rising for weeks over the Russia buildup. The United States warned on February 11 that Russia could attack Ukraine at any time. Moscow denies Western accusations it may be planning an invasion.
Several rounds of diplomacy have failed to calm the situation, though Russian President Vladimir Putin and his U.S. counterpart, Joe Biden, are scheduled to speak by phone on February 12.
Simonyte said that Russia’s past actions in areas such as the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia in 2008 as well as Moscow’s forcible annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 prompted “quite a significant shift and quite a significant awakening” in the international community to what Moscow is capable of if it is not challenged.
She added that while “many people might take what is happening for bluffing,” Europe and the international community as a whole “all know who the aggressor is in this situation.”
“It is very important that we show our very strong support to Ukraine and make those arguments by the Kremlin that [Putin] uses for his blackmail null and void,” Simonyte said.
RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service has seen its audience grow significantly since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022 and is among the most cited media outlets in the country. Its bold, in-depth reporting from the front lines has won many accolades and awards. Its comprehensive coverage also includes award-winning reporting by the Donbas.Realities and Crimea.Realities projects and the Schemes investigative unit.
