Turkmenistan’s population increased to slightly over 7 million people, according to the results of a new census conducted by the authorities in the tightly controlled country.
But many Turkmen have rejected the official data, accusing the government of covering up an unprecedented population decline in recent years.
The demographic crisis in the Central Asian nation has been driven by the exodus of millions of people due to widespread poverty, unemployment, government corruption, and political repression.
Conducted in December 2022, the nationwide census found that Turkmenistan has a population of 7,057,841 people, the government announced on July 14. That was an increase from the 6.7 million recorded during the census in 2006, the last to be made public.
But in 2021, sources close to the Turkmen government told RFE/RL on condition of anonymity that the results of a preliminary survey conducted earlier that year -- ahead of the 2022 census -- found that the population actually numbered fewer than 2.8 million.
The Turkmen authorities did not respond to RFE/RL's request for comment.
Several sources with knowledge of the matter, who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, said the official census results have been deliberately overstated.
“The reality is that Turkmenistan’s population doesn’t even reach 4 million, even including citizens who are still registered in their old addresses in Turkmenistan but have left the country many years ago -- mostly as migrants to Turkey and Russia,” said one source.
The source said that the “official census figures were just made up” by the authorities. The source claimed that Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhammedov “is aware of the real situation.”
“The government came up with that figure [of 7 million] out of thin air,” the source said.
Another source familiar with the matter also accused the authorities of falsifying the census figures and said there had been irregularities in the process. RFE/RL could not independently verify the claims.
Absent Residents
The census is only supposed to count citizens who reside inside the country or are outside the country temporarily, not those who have immigrated permanently or obtained the citizenship of another country.
But several Turkmen living abroad told RFE/RL that they found out from relatives that census workers registered them as current residents of Turkmenistan.
Among them are a father and son who moved to Russia in 2019 and have since received Russian citizenship. The pair have no intention of going back to Turkmenistan.
“My wife and two daughters still live in Turkmenistan. They said that during the census in December, officials recorded that five people live in our household. They registered me and my son as currently residing in Turkmenistan, although they were told that we have left years ago,” the man told RFE/RL.
“But to be fair, we haven’t officially applied to de-register from our Turkmen address and haven’t abandoned our Turkmen citizenship,” he added.
Turkmen authorities have never publicly acknowledged that the country has experienced a sharp population decline.
“But there are many official indicators that indirectly demonstrate that the population has shrunk in recent years,” said Serdar Aitakov, a Turkmen political analyst who lives abroad.
“For example, according to recent official statistics, about 80,000 students graduate from schools in Turkmenistan every year. For comparison, the number of graduates was about 115,000 in 2009,” he told RFE/RL.
“Also, the government forcibly enlists young men into the army without even giving them a chance to finish their school exams. It also is another example of a shortage of people to fill the ranks of the army.”
Shrinking populations are a major problem in many developed nations, where it is mostly attributed to low birth rates. But in Turkmenistan, the population decline is linked to the mass exodus of people over the past decade.
Ashgabat conducted a nationwide census in 2012, but the results of that survey have never been made public. Sources close to the government have said that the authorities were unwilling to acknowledge the population drop that the census revealed.
The government went on to conduct at least two other surveys -- in 2019 and 2021 -- both of which showed the population receding, several officials close to the matter told RFE/RL at the time.
!["When the latest figures were presented to [President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov], he was hysterical," a source tells RFE/RL.](https://gdb.rferl.org/766cce12-c82a-41c4-af07-c2718e06def9_cx0_cy68_cw0_w100_r1.jpg)
The 2019 survey that was said to cover the period between 2008 to 2018 showed that nearly 2 million people left the country, the sources said on condition of anonymity.
“They left either for permanent residency abroad or for permanent work outside the country," one of the sources said. That number did not include Turkmen migrants and students abroad, the sources said.
In the lead up to the 2022 census, the Turkmen authorities prevented people from leaving the country. There were reports of students being removed en masse from foreign-bound flights.
Hundreds of Turkmen workers who had returned from abroad to visit their families or renew their passports in Turkmenistan in 2022 were not able to go back, despite having foreign residency permits.
The move was seen by many Turkmen as a desperate effort by the authorities to boost the number of people in the country during the census.
