Serbian voters dealt a blow to Moscow, while a spike in tensions with Kyiv raised questions ahead of the expected resumption of trilateral talks on an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Prospects for progress are deeply clouded by doubts about the Kremlin’s intentions and differences on major issues, including territory in the Donbas.
Here are some of the key developments in Russia over the past week and some of the takeaways going forward.
'Two To Tango'
Russia has few true allies abroad, if any, and 2026 has now brought the downfall of two leaders who were among the closest things President Vladimir Putin had to allies in Europe, at least west of Belarus.
In April, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s party was voted out of power in Hungary, ending the long dominance of an authoritarian leader who last year told Putin, “I am at your service.”
This week, it was another entrenched but increasingly fragile strongman’s turn: former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic’s party lost decisively to a force that had gained momentum over two years of student-led street protests, shaking another foothold for Moscow in the heart of Europe.
“Putin’s not having his best year,” Ruth Deyermond, a Russia expert at King’s College London, wrote on X not long after Vucic conceded defeat and accused his opponents of "merely carrying out dirty work devised by someone else to bring down a sovereign country.”
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov played the blow down by playing it straight, saying the Kremlin hopes “these new political forces will understand that cooperation with Russia is in Serbia’s interests.” In other words, when it comes to imposing sanctions against Moscow, please stick to existing policy: Don’t go there.
For its part, Russia will “continue to do everything we can to foster the development of our relations with Belgrade,” Peskov said. “But, as you know, it takes two to tango.”
Putin may be hoping Serbia will remain on Russia’s dance card, with few changes in the steps.
“Serbia’s student movement is ideologically diverse: pro-Western, pro-Russian, and neutral voices coexist. What united them was the demand to restore the rule of law,” Ivana Stradner, a research fellow at the US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote on X. “By focusing on democracy rather than foreign policy, they avoided Vucic’s strategy of using geopolitics to polarize society.”
Serbia And Sanctions
The incoming government -- when it takes shape -- is not expected to change Serbia’s sanctions policy toward Russia immediately. But in an interview with RFE/RL on October 27, leading Student List candidate Ilija Srdanovic said the country’s stance on the matter could be reconsidered through public debate.
The Kremlin will presumably seek to preserve what Stradner called Russia’s structural leverage.
“Energy dependence gives Moscow political blackmail, while its entrenched ties within Serbia’s intelligence and security apparatus pose another challenge,” she wrote on X.
But the focus on the rule of law and democracy must be ringing alarm bells in Moscow. Not to mention the student-led movement’s rise through peaceful protests and free elections – precisely the kind of development that has fueled Kremlin fears for a quarter-century and stoked its still-spiraling crackdown on free speech, civil society, and all forms of dissent.
Another thing that hasn’t gone as well as Putin probably hoped this year is the war on the ground in eastern Ukraine, where minor Russian advances have come at a major cost and an unexpected Ukrainian counteroffensive threw up new hurdles before one of his main goals: Taking the portion of the Donbas that his forces have been unable to seize so far.
Does this mean that Russia is ready to make concessions to Ukraine with US-brokered trilateral talks -- dormant since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran in late February -- expected to resume next month?
The short answer from many analysts: No.
“Officials in regular contact” with Putin say he “increasingly believes military escalation and intensified air attacks will force Kyiv to make concessions in the coming months,” Farida Rustamova and Howard Amos wrote in the newsletter Vlast on October 23. “They do not think Putin intends to make any compromises in ongoing peace negotiations brokered by Washington.”
Under Pressure
That raises another question: Will Kyiv make compromises?
In recent weeks, a slew of developments raised concerns in Ukraine and Europe that US President Donald Trump was determined to push it into doing so.
On October 10, Trump accused President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of passing up several chances for a peace deal and said Ukraine should “get a new leader.” He also said Zelenskyy “better damn well stop” Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel refineries.
A day earlier, Trump announced he had reached an agreement with Putin to get Russian diesel fuel to the United States and other global markets. And on October 17, the US president waived tougher new sanctions on Russia just before they were due to take effect.
Adding sharply to the tensions were instances in which Ukraine said it did not receive US intelligence providing early warning of Russian air attacks and a nail-biting period of time in which Kyiv reported that the Starshield satellite communications system made by Elon Musk’s company SpaceX, which it relies heavily on for frontline logistics and anti-drone defense, was operating at limited speeds for Ukraine’s military.
The developments amounted to the biggest blowup between Washington and Kyiv since February 2025, when Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office at the White House.
With early-warning intelligence and Starshield speeds apparently back to normal, attention is shifting to the expected talks in November, which could be held in Abu Dhabi. Plans for this round came out of talks between Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Putin in Moscow and a meeting in Oslo involving Zelenskyy, Witkoff, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.
No date has been set. And for now, there’s little sign that progress is in the cards, even if a localized cease-fire -- brokered in part by US first lady Melania Trump and Pope Leo, with the goal of providing humanitarian aid and allowing residents to get out of the starving southern Ukrainian city of Oleshky -- is successful.
“Russia is serious about escalation -- not peace talks,” Rustamova and Amos wrote.
Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, put it this way: “Moscow sees little scope for substantive progress towards its goals at present, but views trilateral talks as a way to prepare the ground for an eventual settlement on its terms.”
Analyst and author Mark Galeotti sounded a bit more upbeat, saying on his podcast on October 25 that “the way the peace process is evolving does show some promise.”
'Locked In' On The Donbas
Leaks, he said, suggest that ideas now under consideration have “moved away from the original plan, which was clearly way, way too Russia-friendly,” and toward something that would give Ukraine the security guarantees it needs but at the same time is going to be appealing enough to Russia to get it to stop the fighting.”
Also encouraging, he said, is that “there is more evidence that the Europeans are being involved” in the overall process. Stubb and Store spoke with Putin on October 27 -- though the Kremlin readout was chilly and the Financial Times reported that Putin spent much of the 90-minute call delivering one of the deeply dubious history lessons he frequently uses to lay the blame for Russia’s war against Ukraine on others.
Among “lots of caveats,” Galeotti said, “there remains that one crucial stumbling block” -- the portion of the Donetsk region that Russian forces have been unable to capture in years of deadly and devastating fighting.
Putin and other Russian officials have repeatedly said Ukraine must cede it, in battle or otherwise, but Zelenskyy and the vast majority of Ukrainians see no reason to hand over land that their soldiers have been fighting and dying to defend.
“At the moment, both sides seem locked in” to their stances on the Donbas, Galeotti said, adding that at any rate, “I certainly don’t think we’re going to have peace before spring…. If nothing else, Putin will think, ‘Let’s have another winter hammering the Ukrainians.’”
Ukrainian officials call Russia’s relentless attacks terrorism. In an October 26 report, the UN's Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine said the Russian authorities had committed war crimes and crimes against humanity by attacking civilians and critical energy infrastructure, among other violations of international law.
On October 29, a Russian drone strike on the main train station in the city of Dnipro killed at least 14 people and wounded several others, Ukrainian officials said. Zelenskyy said that "fair and decisive actions by America and Europe are needed against Russian escalation."
