Diplomatic Showdown Between US And Iran Set For Oman

Iranian and US officials are set to meet in Oman on February 6 for a round of high-stakes diplomacy seen as a last-chance effort to avert a major military escalation in the Persian Gulf.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who has spearheaded talks for President Donald Trump aimed at ending conflicts from the Gaza Strip to Ukraine, will lead an American delegation in talks with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Tehran's main face on the international diplomatic front, and several other senior Iranian officials.

Though the lineups may be set, the exact agenda of the talks remains unknown.

What is clear is that with Washington moving warships into Middle Eastern waters in recent days, the stakes are high.

"While ⁠these negotiations are taking place, I would remind the Iranian regime that the president has many options at his disposal, ⁠aside from diplomacy, as the ⁠commander-in-chief ‌of the most powerful military in ⁠the history of the world," White House ‍press secretary ‍Karoline Leavitt told reporters on February 5.

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The current confrontation was sparked by more than two weeks of unrest in Iran that saw authorities launch a deadly crackdown that rights groups say killed thousands of civilians and shocked the world.

As reports of the carnage trickled out of Iran -- which was plunged into digital darkness after authorities cut off all Internet access -- Trump threatened to strike Iran if any of the tens of thousands of protesters arrested were executed.

Trump has continued to keep military options on the table, though he has also focused on reining in Iran's nuclear program, which the West fears is aimed at making a bomb despite Tehran's claims that it is for civilian purposes only.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei "should be very worried," Trump said in an interview with US broadcaster NBC News on February 4.

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The path to the Omani capital was anything but smooth.

After a dispute over the venue and the agenda -- with Tehran pushing for a bilateral meeting in Oman and Washington initially insisting on a multilateral summit involving regional powers in Turkey -- the Trump administration briefly called off the engagement.

However, following a flurry of "high-level" messages from at least nine regional partners, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the White House relented. While the United States agreed to the change of scenery to Muscat, senior officials emphasized that the change in location does not signal a change in resolve.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking from Washington on February 4, made it clear that the United States is not interested in a narrow "nuclear-only" conversation.

Rubio confirmed that while the White House is prepared to engage, it has set a high bar for what constitutes a successful meeting.

"In order for talks to actually lead to something meaningful, they will have to include the range of their ballistic missiles, their sponsorship of terror organizations, and the treatment of their own people," Rubio told reporters.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei said Iran has "a responsibility not to miss any opportunity to use diplomacy to... preserve peace and tranquility in the region."

Rubio also drew a sharp line between the Iranian leadership and the public, particularly in the wake of last month's bloody crackdown on protests that started with shopkeepers in Tehran complaining about spiraling inflation and a freefall of the currency before broadening to nationwide unrest over deteriorating living standards.

"The leadership of Iran at the clerical level does not reflect the people of Iran," he said. "I know of no other country where there's a bigger difference between the people that lead the country and the people who live there."

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'Weird' Country To Talk To

US Vice President JD Vance echoed Rubio's skepticism, highlighting the inherent difficulty of negotiating with a country where the ultimate decision-maker remains behind a curtain of clerical authority.

In a February 4 interview on The Megyn Kelly Show, Vance described the diplomatic dance as "absurd," pointing out that unlike other world powers, the United States cannot simply call the person truly in charge.

"It's a very weird country to conduct diplomacy with when you can't even talk to the person who's in charge," Vance said, referring to Khamenei.

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Since succeeding Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic republic, as Iran's supreme leader, Khamenei has not left the country and has almost exclusively met with leaders of countries that are either friendly toward Tehran or otherwise not deemed overtly hostile.

As Witkoff prepares to meet Araqchi, the atmosphere remains combustible. The United States continues to bolster its military presence in the region, and Iran warns that any strike will result in a regional war.

Vance warned that while Trump prefers a nonmilitary resolution, the clock is ticking.

"If [Trump] feels like the military is the only option, then he's ultimately going to choose that option," he said.