Exiled Kurdish Groups Form New Alliance As They Seek To Capitalize On Iran's Frailty

Exiled Iranian opposition Kurdish groups have announced a new coalition with the aim of overthrowing the Islamic republic, in a move that marks a significant shift in the region's political landscape, experts say.

The creation of the alliance on February 22 comes as Iran's clerical establishment is at its weakest point in decades. The authorities are bracing for US military action, weeks after surviving the biggest protests against their rule in years.

Experts say the five Iranian-Kurdish opposition groups, which are based in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region and have been waging a low-level insurgency against Tehran for years, are looking to exploit the Islamic republic's current frailty.

"[The Kurdish groups] are preparing for different possibilities," political analyst Wladimir van Wilgenburg, who specializes in Kurdish affairs, told RFE/RL. The expectation of the groups, he said, is that "there will be a US attack."

Kurds make up around 10 percent of Iran's population of some 90 million and primarily live in the country's west along the border with Iraq. Iran has long been accused of suppressing and discriminating against the country's ethnic minorities, including Kurds.

Reinforcing Kurdish Unity

The new coalition includes the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the Organization of Iranian Kurdistan Struggle (Khabat), and the Komala of the Toilers of Kurdistan.

Many of these groups were previously armed, with some demanding autonomy within Iran and others fighting for secession from the Islamic republic.

The main goals of the alliance -- the "Coalition of Political Forces in Iran Kurdistan" -- are to overthrow the Islamic republic of Iran and achieve self-determination for the Kurds, according to a joint statement.

The coalition voiced strong support for anti-government protests in Iran and stressed the need for "coordinated, joint political and on-the-ground efforts" between Kurdish parties and civil society and opposition groups across Iran.

Mostafa Hejri, leader of the PDKI, told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that it took around eight months of negotiations for the five groups to come together and "set aside" their differences.

He said one of the main reasons for forming the alliance was to the "have a joint plan for administering Iranian Kurdistan during the transitional period" should the Islamic republic fall.

Iranian Kurdistan comprises the Kurdish-majority provinces of Kurdistan, Ilam, Kermanshah, and parts of West Azerbaijan.

Once a new central government is formed, Hejri said, "the governing bodies of Kurdistan will be elected through a free vote by the people and take over the administration of the region."

Ideological Divisions

Despite the creation of the new political alliance, the coalition faces significant challenges due to ideological divisions among its members and differing regional alliances, van Wilgenburg said.

That includes sensitivities tied to PJAK's links to the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which could trigger pushback from Ankara and complicate the alliance's cohesion.

The coalition also does not include several Kurdish political heavyweights, including the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan led by Abdullah Mohtadi, which chose not to join the alliance.

In a post shared on X, Mohtadi criticized the alliance for "lacking a clear roadmap" and "executive mechanisms" and described its provisions as overly general and open to interpretation.

Despite his criticisms, Mohtadi said his party would not oppose the coalition and remained open to future cooperation.

Hejri said the alliance would welcome Mohtadi's party and intends to "enter into dialogue with other Iranian political organizations and opposition groups, and to try -- if possible -- to create a comprehensive, unified program."

Iraqi Kurdistan Stepping Back

The announcement of the new alliance attracted a sharp response from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq.

Seeking to avoid cross-border tension with Iran, the KRG Interior Ministry issued a stern warning, stating the Kurdistan region "will not allow" its territory to be used against "neighboring countries."

Over the years, Iran has conducted military strikes against exiled Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan. In 2023, Iran and Iraq signed a security deal that resulted in Baghdad moving the opposition Kurdish groups away from the border with Iran.

Van Wilgenburg said Iraqi Kurdish officials "want to show that they're not in any way a part of this initiative by the Kurdish parties."