No 'Divorce': A Year After 'Provocative' Vance Speech, What Will Be Rubio's Message At Munich?

When US Vice President JD Vance came to the Munich Security Conference last year, he stunned his hosts by telling them that suppression of free speech by Washington's European allies was a bigger security risk than Russian military aggression.

This year, with the US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Europeans may hope for an easier ride -- while Russia and China watch closely for new signs of fractures in the Western alliance.

"Secretary Rubio and the vice president deliver messages differently, and they have different personal styles. But I think there's 100 percent alignment on policy," Alexander Gray, who served on the National Security Council (NSC) during Trump's first term in the White House, told RFE/RL.

"The message will look like the National Security Strategy (NSS): clear about our interests and where they overlap with Europe but not shy about calling out areas of concerning disagreement," he added.

New National Security Strategy

The NSS, released in December 2025, was very much in the spirit of Vance's speech, criticizing what it called "civilizational erasure" -- a reference to European policies on Internet hate speech and immigration. It drew praise from Moscow with talk of restoring "strategic stability" with Russia.

It was one of a series of moments that have characterized a rocky year in transatlantic relations, from the heated Oval Office row between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to European pushback at US pressure on Denmark to hand over Greenland.

Meanwhile, Trump's repeated statements that Europe needs to rely less on Washington for both its own defense and Ukraine's have sparked fears of a US withdrawal from the Old Continent.

"The United States is no longer viewing Europe as our principal theater of geopolitical engagement. And that's for a simple reason. Russia is a declining, terminally declining power. That is not the greatest threat to the United States," said Gray.

US Vice President JD Vance delivers his speech at the Munich conference on February 14, 2025.

"I don't think Europe gets the fundamental civilizational concerns.... There's just a fundamental misalignment between American conservative politics and mainstream European political economy," he added.

Ahead of the conference, US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker took a similar line. The United States and Europe were working together on defense -- but disagreed on values.

Speaking at an event in Berlin on February 9, Whitaker said Vance had made "a provocative speech" that raised "legitimate criticisms" on issues such as energy policy, immigration, and free speech.

"But at the same time, it doesn't mean we're getting a divorce," he added. "A lot of our allies can criticize the United States of America, but we are still your best friend and ally."

Strained US-Europe Partnership

Quizzed on Greenland, where Trump initially said he would not rule out using force before walking the prospect back after talks with NATO chief Mark Rutte in January, Whitaker said it "was all about whether or not Greenland was properly invested security-wise by Denmark" and warned of "malign influence by China or Russia."

Alarmed European leaders have sought to mollify Washington by pledging to massively expand defense spending in line with Trump's demands for greater NATO burden-sharing.

They have also made sure to repeatedly praise Trump's leadership in international affairs while emphasizing shared history and values. More of this behavior will likely be on display in Munich.

"I'm expecting a kind of contradictory mood," Carlo Masala from the University of the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) in Munich told RFE/RL.

"Europeans and Americans will reassure themselves that, somehow, they are still partners. But behind closed doors, Europeans will basically struggle with how to become more independent from the US," he added.

Masala, who published an influential book last year called If Russia Wins, about a Russian incursion into NATO-member Estonia, said the entire transatlantic relationship was now "framed around Ukraine."

Washington has dramatically scaled back its support to Kyiv since Trump took office in January 2025. But it still plays the key role providing intelligence to the Ukrainian armed forces and still supplies Kyiv with weapons paid for by European countries.

"If this administration would walk away even from these things, then of course the picture will be a totally different one for the Ukrainians. So, the whole way how Europe deals with the US is basically focused on keeping the US engaged with regard to Ukraine," Masala said.

Zelenskyy has followed a similar strategy in several meetings with Trump and other administration officials since the Oval Office disagreement. But he has also repeatedly urged the Europeans to do more without waiting for Washington.

At last year's conference, he called for the creation of a European army. It's a message he may repeat in Munich this year. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January, Zelenskyy again mentioned the idea while voicing frustration at what he called a Groundhog Day of strong words not being followed with decisive actions.

"Just last year here in Davos, I ended my speech with the words, 'Europe needs to know how to defend itself.' A year has passed and nothing has changed," he said.

It's a sentiment that Richard Shirreff, former NATO deputy supreme commander in Europe, agrees with.

"You can rule out the United States. This is Europe and Canada's shout," he told RFE/RL. "There's not going to be a lasting cease-fire in Ukraine until Russia has been defeated in Ukraine, and for that to happen, it requires Europe and Canada to design and execute a strategy to give Ukraine all the support it needs."

Shirreff, who is now on a security and defense council at GlobSec, an international think tank, said key NATO leaders did not share this view.

"I think [Canadian Prime Minister Mark] Carney has got it. I think all the rest just talk. They don't get it. I don't think there is that real spine at the moment. Let's be clear: Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Finland -- they absolutely get it. But I'm afraid I think [other] Western leaders are politically pretty pathetic and inadequate as far as this is concerned," he said.

"Trying to appease Trump [from] the likes of Rutte, [British Prime Minister Keir] Starmer, and [French President Emmanuel] Macron has resulted in Trump despising them," he added.

Focus On Ukraine

Ukraine has often exposed differences between Washington and its European NATO allies over the last year and will feature in many debates at Munich. European leaders have publicly backed Trump's efforts to broker peace but also stated they do not believe Russia is genuine about wanting to end the full-scale invasion it launched in February 2022.

On February 10, Estonia's annual intelligence service report was the latest articulation of these concerns, stating that Moscow's cooperation in peace talks was "a ruse" aimed at "widening what Moscow perceives as existing rifts between the US and Europe."

Meanwhile, in another sign of transatlantic tension, European media quoted Macron as saying Trump was "openly anti-European" and seeking the "dismemberment" of the European Union.

Macron's interview marked a renewed bid to get Europe a role in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. He reportedly said Europe should seek its own dialogue with Russia, "so as not to depend on third parties in this discussion."

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas followed up by saying, "Everybody around the table, including the Russians and the Americans, needs to understand ⁠that you need Europeans" involved.

Former Trump adviser Gray, now CEO at American Global Strategies LLC, said this need not be a major problem.

"Europe certainly has a role to play. I'm not sure that that role is necessarily in the day-to-day talks, but I think Europe is obviously going to have a major role in discussing…what the future security settlement in Eastern Europe looks like," he said.