Wider Europe Briefing: Can Ukraine And Moldova Finally Start Accession Talks?

Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL's newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe's Eastern neighborhoods.

I'm RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I am drilling down on two issues: Ukraine (and Moldova) to finally start EU accession talks and Armenia getting visa-free travel to the bloc.

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Briefing #1: Can Ukraine (And Moldova) Finally Start EU Accession Talks?

What You Need To Know: With the change of power in Hungary, there is now hope in Brussels that de facto EU accession will start with Ukraine and Moldova, which so far is coupled with Kyiv in the process.

Officially, the talks started in June 2024, but the opening and closing of the 33 policy chapters have been on hold for the better part of two years due to a Hungarian veto, ostensibly over the alleged lack of rights of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine.

With Peter Magyar stepping into the role of Hungarian prime minister in early May, things are expected to get moving on this even though nothing is certain. EU officials speaking to RFE/RL under the condition of anonymity point out that the incoming premier has been just as tough on Hungarian minorities in various European countries, such as Slovakia, as his predecessor, Viktor Orban.

The key will be a likely meeting between him and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early June. The timing is significant as EU leaders then meet in Brussels for their big "before summer break" summit on June 18-19 when at least the informal decision could be taken to open chapters for Ukraine as well as Moldova.

Deep Background: The big question is how many chapters? While most diplomats RFE/RL have spoken think that something will be opened during the Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU which ends on June 30, the guessing game is on the exact number.

The 33 chapters are now divided into six clusters. The European Commission, Ukraine, and some of Ukraine's biggest supporters in the EU such as the Baltic states believe all six could be opened as early as June, meaning then all 33 chapters.

Others are more cautious. Apart from the question marks still surrounding the stance Magyar will take on Kyiv, a majority of countries say this is a merit-based process, meaning no shortcuts will be offered to Ukraine and the country should rule out membership by 2027 as Zelenskyy has pushed for.

In France, there is a fear that a quick-paced Ukrainian accession could become a negative part of the presidential election campaign next year in which populists both to the right and left are dubious about expanding the bloc eastward. And in other member states, notably in the eastern part, there is still a desire not to proceed too quickly, at least with Ukraine, as this country inevitably would take up a lot of cash for agriculture and funds for poorer regions that currently are heading to places like Bulgaria, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

The most common bet in Brussels is that only the so-called fundamentals cluster will be opened in June. This cluster, consisting of a handful of key chapters such as for example fundamental rights, judiciary, and public administration, is always opened first and closed last.

There might be a compromise in which also two more clusters -- most likely the ones dealing with external relations and internal markets -- could be opened as well, but the thinking is still that that apart from the fundamentals the rest will be gradually opened during the Irish presidency in the latter half of the year and the Lithuanian one at the start of 2027.

Drilling Down

For comparison, this would, by EU standards, be a speedy process. For Albania, which currently holds the record for opening chapters expediently, it took 13 months to start talks on all six clusters.
It is also expected that Moldova will continue to be coupled with Ukraine, at least for now. But it might not last too long if Ukraine gets stuck again. Chisinau might then go it alone. No EU member state seems to have issues with Chisinau as it is smaller and not involved in a direct war with Russia. It would simply be easier "to be absorbed" by the club, as one EU senior official put it to RFE/RL.
A recent flurry of discussion papers this spring, seen by RFE/RL, also indicates two things. Firstly, they are clearly designed with mainly Ukraine in mind. And they all hint at some sort of temporary "antechamber" to the EU before joining. In other words, they want to offer Ukraine some benefits of being part of the bloc, but speedy membership is unlikely.
A French paper talks about "integrated state status." While not referring to Ukraine specifically but rather all EU candidate countries, it is meant to be "an accelerator toward membership, not a substitute for it."
It proposes participation in the main EU institutions but without voting rights, granting symbolic benefits for citizens, and participation in EU funding programs though fundamentally not money cows such as the common agricultural policy (CAP) and cohesion funds (cash transfers to poorer parts of the EU).
A German paper that specifically mentions only Ukraine talks about "associate membership closely tied to the EU." Like the French proposal, it clarifies that this would not be "an alternative to full membership but an easy-to-implement substantial shortcut toward it."
Like the French document, it also talks about participation in institutions but without a vote with "associate commissioners without portfolios" and "associate members of the European Parliament" and gradual integration to the EU market.
Additionally, the document also highlights that Article 42.7 -- the EU's never-tested version of NATO's mutual defense clause, Article 5 -- "could be made de facto applicable through a mere political declaration."
Finally, a Lithuanian paper is the most supportive of quicker EU enlargement for Kyiv. Perhaps worryingly, no other Nordic or Baltic countries have to date signed on to it.
It notes that "full membership must remain the only destination of the accession process. Intermediate forms of integration, sectoral participation or partial access to EU policies may support progress, but they cannot replace or redefine the goal of becoming a member dtate."
Among the suggestions, it favors that progress toward membership "cannot be halted for reasons unrelated to the accession criteria and that advancement follows objectively assessed reform results." This is to avoid another blockage similar to what Hungary did over the last couple of years but it would require a change to enlargement methodology, which requires unanimity.
One of the mooted ideas is the concept of an "an acceding state." This only exists once an EU accession treaty has been signed but Vilnius wants to apply this status already much earlier to allow "the EU to acknowledge when a candidate has reached a qualitatively different stage of integration" and ensure Kyiv would take part in most EU programs and institutions.
Other ideas include the launch of preparatory work on the accession treaty, something Brussels recently did with Montenegro and set 2030 as "a conditional and merit‑based date for Ukraine's EU accession."
Few EU member states currently want to commit to any date for Ukraine (or Moldova), but even 2030 is seen, at least quietly, as being ambitious.

Leaders attending a European Political Community summit in Yerevan pose for a photo on May 4.

Briefing #2: Will Armenia Get EU Visa Lib This Decade?

What You Need To Know: The first-ever EU-Armenia summit on May 5 was largely a symbolic affair in which the bloc's political support for Yerevan was showcased with both the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Council Antonio Costa showering the small Caucasus country with attention and compliments in a bid to stave off a more pro-Russian direction after the parliamentary election in early June.

Few concrete things were agreed, but there one small "deliverable" could lead to a big policy change later: The EU side presented Armenia with the first progress report on its visa liberalization action plan (known in Brussels parlance as VLAP). This very technical document is a sort of report card on the steps Yerevan has taken in order for its citizens to get a visa-free regime with the EU, as well as what is left for the country to do to achieve this status in the coming years.

Deep Background: There was plenty of good news for Armenia. The VLAP was given to the country back in November 2025 and in six months it has achieved a lot, according to the EU.

The main takeaway is that "the Armenian authorities have shown a strong political commitment to deliver on the reforms expected under the VLAP. Despite the fact that the VLAP was presented to Armenia only recently, many of the necessary reforms have been initiated or planned by the Armenian authorities."

This means that if all goes well, the country could look at getting visa liberalization before the end of the decade.

Georgia is probably the best comparison in this respect. Back in November 2013, Tbilisi got a similarly positive first VLAP report, and over the course of the following two years three more reports followed before the European Commission in March 2016 recommended visa liberalization for the country.

The European Parliament and the 27 EU member states then started legislative work that resulted in Georgian citizens being able to travel to the Schengen zone with only biometric passports in March 2017.

Drilling Down

A similar, ambitious timeline would mean Armenia getting visa lib by 2029 or 2030. But for that to happen two things need to be assured.
Firstly, all EU member states need to be onboard. While Armenia in general has a lot of political goodwill in the bloc, illegal immigration is a big topic in many countries and populist parties are influential in most. This means Yerevan must prevent its citizens from using travel to the Schengen zone as an avenue to claim asylum.
The visa report also points this out by noting that "the number of Armenian citizens apprehended irregularly staying in the EU has been relatively stable, at 2,155 in 2019 and 2,465 in 2024. However, the significant number of unfounded asylum applications from Armenian nationals in some EU countries, in particular by those seeking medical treatments, represents a challenge that the Armenian authorities should address."
Then there is the second, more concrete challenge for Armenia, which is to implement all legislation the EU is asking for in four concrete policy fields: security of travel documents, border and asylum management, public order and security issues, and fundamental rights issues related to the freedom of movement.
According to the report, Armenia is already at "an advanced stage of fulfilment" for the first benchmarks when it comes to the security of travel documents and "progressing well" in the other three fields.
There are numerous things that Armenia still must fulfill. Some of the key things include that its state population registry that is currently being set up will meet various international standards when it comes to data protection and integrity and in parallel set up a data protection authority with "a clear legal mandate, autonomous governance and sufficient human, technical and financial resources." A strong asset recovery office with the same solid legal mandate is also a must.
Armenia is currently introducing biometric passports, but the EU is pushing for a quicker phase-out of older versions. A trickier prospect for Yerevan would be "the transition to ensure that border control in Armenia is under the full responsibility of the Armenian authorities" with Russian FSB border guards currently manning crossing to Iran and Turkey.
Among the more challenging aspects when it comes to the fourth and final block, dealing with fundamental rights, is the need to avoid a investor citizenship scheme, also known as "golden passports," and to "ensure that any investor residency scheme does not constitute an undue route to citizenship."
A golden passport scheme was the reason the EU permanently suspended visa liberalization with the Pacific island Vanuatu in late 2024. While Armenia is unlikely to introduce anything like this now, the temptation can increase in the future as its passports will become more lucrative if they also allow visa-free travel to the EU.

Looking Ahead

The EU's defense ministers will meet in Brussels on May 12. The two key issues on the agenda are a presentation of the situation on the battleground by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Mykhaylo Fedorov and a presentation by the EU's diplomatic corps about an updated threat analysis to the bloc.

The latter will include both Russian threats such as increased hybrid attacks in EU member states and potential spill-over effects from the war in the Middle East such as terrorist attacks.

That's all for this week! Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on X @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org .

Until next time,

Rikard Jozwiak

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