Michael Shafir

Analysis: Opposition Candidate Bows Out Of Romanian Race

Theodor Stolojan, the main opposition candidate in Romania's November presidential elections who had mysteriously disappeared from the public eye recently, on 2 October announced his withdrawal from the race due to health concerns. The PNL-Democratic Party candidate also said he is stepping down as chairman of the National Liberal Party (PNL) for the same reason.

Analysis: Serpents Island, Bystraya Canal, And Ukrainian-Romanian Relations

Relations between Bucharest and Kyiv have been strained for some time over their inability to reach an agreement concerning the delimitation of the continental shelf around Serpents Island (Zmiyinyy Ostrov) in the Black Sea, and that dispute is likely to end before the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Relations have deteriorated further recently over Ukraine's construction of a canal that will facilitate access to and from the Black Sea via the Danube River, but at the same time, Romania claims, would destroy the Danube Delta's unique ecosystem. Inauguration of the Bystraya Canal is scheduled for 24 August -- Ukraine's Independence Day -- according to Romanian media reports. At stake are two elements of strategic importance: the discovery of oil and gas reserves surrounding the island and the location of the planned canal, which would facilitate control of the Danube's mouth by a non-NATO member.

Analysis: Transdniester Attempts To Regionalize Conflict

With the deteriorating situation between Moldova and the separatist region of Transdniester, RFE/RL's Romania-Moldova Service will extend its broadcasts to Moldova to include weekend coverage as well. As of 14 August, Moldovans will be able to benefit from the same excellent coverage as that during the rest of the week.

Analysis: Mixed Signals In Transdniester

Transdniestrian separatist leader Igor Smirnov is accustomed to playing it both ways. On 5 August, he amply displayed the skills for which he has gained notoriety. First, the Transdniestrian "Defense Ministry" announced that it had taken the first steps toward mobilizing its reservists. According to an ITAR-TASS report, the urgent mobilization of the army, the special services, and "Interior Ministry" forces was under way and several thousand reservists were expected to report for duty within a few days. Regular units, the communique said, had already been placed on alert because of the growing threat of an attack from Moldova.

Analysis: Transdniester, Russia, And The Schools Dispute

The dispute surrounding the recent closure of the six schools in the breakaway region of Transdniester that teach Moldovan (Romanian) in the Latin script has led to a situation in which a resumption of military clashes cannot be ruled out, some international news agencies have reported. Indeed the 15 July takeover of a school in Tiraspol has been followed by Moldovan economic retaliatory measures put into place on 1 August and the subsequent blocking of rail links from Moldova to Commonwealth of Independent States countries by separatist authorities on 3 August. As Infotag pointed out on 3 August, the last time Tiraspol resorted to blocking rail lines was during the armed conflict of the early 1990s. But who would be served by such a course?

Analysis: 60 Years After Central Europe's Romany Holocaust

Sixty years ago, on the night of 2-3 August 1944, the "Gypsy camp" at the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp was liquidated after the last group of 2,897 Romany inmates there was gassed.

Analysis: Elections A Slap In The Face Of Romania's Ruling Party

The ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) suffered an embarrassing defeat in local elections held on 6 and 20 June. This can be viewed as a bad omen for the PSD ahead of the November parliamentary and presidential elections.

Analysis: New Europeans Behave Like Old Europeans

Citizens of the 10 countries that joined the European Union on 1 May for the first time participated in European Parliament elections held last week. The election to what is now the world's second-largest legislature after India's should have marked a historic occasion. Instead, it served only to demonstrate -- in a most bizarre fashion -- that those who divide Europeans into "old" and "new" are not very realistic.

Analysis: Hungarian Socialist Chief To Step Down

Premier Peter Medgyessy Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) Chairman Laszlo Kovacs announced on 16 June that he would not run again for the position of MSZP party leader at the next congress of his party, slated for October, international news agencies reported.

Analysis: Vote-Fatigued Slovaks Send Pollsters Packing

For months, pollsters have been predicting that Slovakia's leftist Smer (Direction) party and its populist leader, Robert Fico, would win Slovakia's first elections to the European Parliament on 13 June. But, as in the April presidential elections -- when the polls forecast a victory for Eduard Kukan, the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU) candidate who narrowly failed to make the runoff -- the polls were wrong again.

Analysis: Czech Ruling Coalition Dealt Severe Blow In Europarliament Elections

It is not the defeat of the ruling center-left coalition in the first Czech participation in an election to the European Parliament that makes that vote exceptional. Rather, it is the possible immediate consequences of that ballot's results. Incumbent governments were defeated almost everywhere in the 25 member countries. It was only in Belgium, Cyprus, Greece, Luxembourg, Slovakia, and Spain that incumbent governments either did well or reasonably well in the 10-13 June election -- the first one conducted in the enlarged EU. The debacle for ruling governments was serious in neighboring Germany and the United Kingdom as well, but in those countries there is apparently little danger of them having to face early elections. Not so in the Czech Republic.

Analysis: Romania's Opposition Fares Well In Local Elections

The mood at the headquarters of the opposition Democratic Party and National Liberal Party (PNL) in Bucharest is understandably euphoric. Running at the head of a joint ticket, incumbent Bucharest Mayor Traian Basescu, the Democrats chairman, has likely won an impressive landslide in 6 June local elections, securing a second term. Although final results are not expected until later this week, early indications show that Basescu has received an absolute majority of 54 percent. What is more, the PNL-Democratic Party alliance seems, according to the same results, to be well-positioned for the 20 June mayoral district runoffs, all its candidates being ahead of those of the ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD). Only one district went to a nonalliance candidate -- a former PSD mayor who ran this time as an independent. Significantly, the opposition alliance seems likely to have an absolute majority on Bucharest's municipal council.

Romania: Governmental Crisis Damages Country's Reputation Abroad

Yugoslavia: The Kosovo Crisis And The NATO Hopefuls

Romania: Government Comes To Mysterious Agreement With Miners

Romania: Hungarian Language Dispute Tied To Historical Conflicts

Hungary: Outcome Uncertain In Parliamentary Runoff

Moldova: Parliamentary Elections Scheduled For Next Week

Moldova: The Right Faces The Center In Electoral Contest

Romania: Government Reshuffle Puts Crisis On Hold