Paul Goble

Could Events In Khanty-Mansiisk Lead To 'Tandemocracy' In Russia's Regions?

Anger in Khanty-Mansiisk at the Kremlin's decision to replace the longtime governor with a Duma deputy could have the unexpected result of leading to the creation of the first "tandemocracy" in a region, mirroring the arrangement between President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Playing Into Moscow's Hands

Paul Goble says few can doubt that recent Russian claims that Georgia is providing support for Islamist and nationalist militants in the North Caucasus are absurd provocations. But he also says even fewer in Tbilisil seem to recognize that far more is riding on their responses.

Plan To Unite Russia's Muslim Hierarchies Collapses

While some circles in Moscow had initially backed proposals to unite Russia's Muslim spiritual directorates (DUMs) under a single mufti, others apparently realized just how dangerous combining these institutions might prove to be.

Ukraine's Options To Counter Russia Are Limited

Russia has a limited window of opportunity within which to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, while Kyiv has few options for developing relations with Moscow in a way that ensures its survival.

National Republics Resist Moscow's Demands

Three of the four republics the Russian Constitutional Court has ordered to drop references in their constitutions to republic sovereignty and citizenship are dragging their feet. That reluctance reflects both the importance of these terms to many non-Russians, and the calculation that resistance to the center could yield dividends.

Russian Constitutional Court's 'Unconstitutional' Decision

A new Russian Constitutional Court decision represents the opening round of a new Moscow campaign against the Russian Federation's so-called ethnic republics, and thus is certain to provoke new tensions between the central government and the peoples and governments of these republics.

The Implications Of Growing Russian Trust In Internet

Russians are increasingly choosing the Internet over other media outlets in their pursuit of "objective" news, a reflection both of their judgments about the quality of reporting, and their dwindling ability to purchase increasingly expensive newspapers and magazines during the current economic crisis.

Will Foreigners Elect The Next Russian Patriarch?

People without Russian Federation passports will form a majority of those who will take part in the election two weeks from now of the next patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Global Impact Of Russia's Aggression

In the immediate aftermath of the Russian military intervention in Georgia, most diplomats focused on what might be done to resolve, or at least minimize, the international fallout. Most commentators focused on the ways in which this one event might herald a new Cold War. But already, those two groups are paying less attention to these scenarios and instead are considering the ways in which the Georgian events are having an impact on an increasingly large number of more general issues around the

Some Things Change, Some Stay The Same

The combination of change and continuity is very much on display in three concentric circles around Georgia: first, in the former Soviet republics of which Georgia is a part; second, in the Russian Federation itself; and third, in Russia's place in the broader international system -- particularly its relations with Europe and the United States.

The 'Managed Indiscretions' Of Lennart Meri

Every world leader aspires to leave his mark on the world. But one who surely did so not only figuratively but in a most literal sense was former Estonian President Lennart Meri.

Russia's Muslims Move Toward Greater Unity

The Muslims of the Russian Federation moved cautiously toward greater unity during two meetings in Nizhnii Novgorod on 4-5 November. At the All-Russian Forum of Muslims of Russia on the Threshold of the Third Millennium, they declined to accede to either the bureaucratic demands of the Kremlin or to the autonomist aspirations of some of the more independent-minded Muslim groups.

Russia: Russians Up, Non-Russians Down, Federalism Out In New Concept Draft

Moscow's new draft concept paper on nationality policy elevates the status of the Russians as a nation, lowers that of non-Russian groups, and drops any mention of either federalism or the need for the government to address the problems of those nationalities who were deported in Soviet times.

Russia: Authorities Seek To Convert Beslan's Muslims

North Ossetian officials have sought to increase supervision of Muslim organizations in the year since the Beslan tragedy In the year since the Beslan tragedy, North Ossetian security officials have sought to close down all independent Muslim organizations there, a campaign that has caused at least some members of historically Islamic nationalities to announce their conversion to Orthodox Christianity.

Russia: A Three-Way Struggle For Chechen Islam

Three Islamic groups in Chechnya are competing for influence over the Muslims of that republic -- the state-controlled and pro-Moscow muftiate, the traditional Sufi tariqats and the radical Islamist djamaats, according to Shamil Beno, a former Chechen foreign minister who now works as an political analyst and activist in Moscow. And because mosques are "the only social institution that is functioning more or less normally in that republic," Beno argues in an interview in the 10 August issue of "Nezavisimaya gazeta -- Religii," the outcome of their competition will play a major role in defining Chechnya's future.

Russia: 'Names That Should Have No Place On The Map Of Russia'

What's in a name? A new "Black Book" has just been released in Moscow identifying 122 communists, members of the secret police, and others whom the Soviets gave a kind of immortality to by putting their names on a variety of places and institutions in the Russian Federation.

Caucasus: Analysis From Washington -- What Next In Georgia?

U.S.: Analysis From Washington -- The Algebra Of Terrorism

Russia: Analysis From Washington -- Eight Years After A Watershed

Russia: Analysis From Washington -- Making Distinctions In Chechnya