Qishloq Ovozi (Archive)

Qishloq Ovozi noted a while back that Uzbek President Islam Karimov, 77, seemed to have problems articulating his thoughts at his April 10 inauguration ceremony.

In the interest of balance, it should now be pointed out that Karimov seemed to have no trouble expressing himself at the May 8 informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in Moscow. And he had some interesting comments.

There has been a creeping thaw in Uzbek-Tajik relations lately, but it was clear at the informal summit that there will be no thaw in Uzbek-Kyrgyz relations anytime soon.

Kyrgyz President Almaz Atambaev addressed the leaders at the CIS roundtable before Karimov. All were using their speeches to pay homage to the sacrifices of the people of the Soviet Union during World War II.

Atambaev offered his words of praise and noted it was a pity that not all the CIS leaders would stay in Moscow for the massive May 9 parade Moscow was having to commemorate the war's end.

"It would demonstrate their respect to the great victory," Atambaev said.

Karimov was not the only leader at the table who was not attending the May 9 festivities in Moscow, but he seemed to have taken Atambaev's comments personally. Qishloq Ovozi has also noted that Karimov can be quick to take offense.

Fortunately, there is a video of Karimov's speech to the CIS leaders.​

The clip by MirTV.ru is 35 minutes, although Karimov does not start speaking until the 23:20 mark. He starts with the obligatory praise for sacrifices of the past. But at about 23:55 he starts responding to Atambaev's remarks, upbraiding him, actually, calling his comments "inappropriate."

Karimov says that "every country, every people, and every leader" has the right to choose when, where, and how they wish to mark anniversaries and other national events. He continues by saying that there is no "obligation" as to which "rituals" a country must observe.

At the 25:50 mark, Atambaev, whose microphone is turned off, calls out that he was simply expressing his opinion.

"Very nice," Karimov says, cutting off Atambaev.

"Your opinion we already know for a long time," Karimov continues, with a smile on his face that suggests how pleased he is with himself at that moment.

Moving ahead, Karimov returns to the theme of praising "our fathers and grandfathers" for their contributions to win the war, and even says that "a special role in the victory, without any exaggeration...belongs first of all to the Russian people."

But at about the 28:00 mark, he transitions from speaking about World War II to warning of the dangers and consequences of a potential World War III, "possibly the last war in the history of humankind."

Karimov then mentions Ukraine, carefully noting he is not criticizing anyone for the situation there but then calling for a restoration of trust between the world's great powers, "firstly between the United States and Russia."

Russian President Vladimir Putin is shown several times while Karimov is saying all this.

I'll leave it to the viewer to decide what those looks on Putin's face might mean.

-- Bruce Pannier, with contributions from RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service (Azattyk) and RFE/RL Uzbek Service (Ozodlik) Director Alisher Sidikov

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that Uzbekistan will see 7.5 percent GDP growth this year.

A May 13 IMF press release said that "strong public investment and a strategic reorientation of gas exports from Russia to China have shielded the economy, so far, from the slowdown experienced by other countries in the region."

The "strategic reorientation of gas exports from Russia to China" is a curious statement.

It seems to imply that Tashkent chose to ship its gas to China rather than Russia. Beijing came up with a scheme to build pipelines from Turkmenistan, which has the world's fourth-largest gas reserves, to China, and the logical route for such pipelines necessarily crosses Uzbekistan's territory.

So Beijing sweetened the deal for Uzbekistan and for Kazakhstan by offering to include 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from each of those countries to add to the Turkmen gas headed for China.

Uzbekistan appeared ready to cash in on sales to both Russia and China, but it did not work out that way.

Instead, Russia has cut back on the amount of gas it purchases from Uzbekistan. Less than 10 years ago, Uzbekistan was shipping some 15 bcm to Russia; last year, Uzbekistan exported some 4.5 bcm to Russia; and this year, after Gazprom announced plans in February to cut back on Central Asian gas imports, Uzbekistan will supply 1 bcm to Russia.

But there is another problem with the IMF press release.

It is unclear how much gas Uzbekistan is supplying to China.

In 2013, Uzbekistan exported some 6 bcm to China. At the start of 2014, supplies of Uzbek gas started falling, and by May of that year, China's General Administration of Customs (GAC) said Uzbekistan had not supplied any gas to China during the month of March.

Uzbek gas exports resumed in April 2014, and Uzbek officials said the country would supply 10 bcm to China by the end of the year; but owing to the opaque nature of the Uzbek-Chinese deal, it is difficult to ascertain whether or not that was the case.

More recently, in April, Russia's nefttrans.ru cited the GAC as saying China had not imported natural gas from Uzbekistan since the start of 2015.

Additionally, Turkmenistan's Ministry of Oil and Gas said at the start of May that Ashgabat was looking to export up to 55 bcm to China this year. That is the maximum current capacity of the three pipelines running from Central Asia to China -- suggesting the three pipelines would be carrying nothing but Turkmen gas this year. (Kazakhstan is still connecting its lines to the Central Asia-China network.)

Under the best-case scenario, Uzbekistan this year would export 10 bcm to China, 1 bcm to Russia, and a far more modest amount to Kyrgyzstan. But that is likely insufficient to provide the backbone for 7.5-percent GDP growth.

-- Bruce Pannier, with contributions by Farruh Yusupov of RFE/RL's Uzbek Service