Qishloq Ovozi (Archive)

It appears Turkmenistan is about to lose its second-best customer for natural gas, Iran.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on August 11 that his country no longer needed gas from Turkmenistan. Zanganeh went so far as to say, "Iran is importing Turkmen gas just because it is important to promote political and economic relations with Turkmenistan."

The oil minister's comments could be bargaining tactics, as Iran has frequently sought to convince Turkmenistan to lower the price for its gas, or it could reflect a potential shift in Iran's role in the international gas market.

Zanganeh said that with Iran about to boost domestic gas production by some 200 million additional cubic meters starting in March next year, the country could "abandon completely gas imports from Turkmenistan." This contrasts with his statements in May that Iran would continue to import Turkmen gas at existing levels.

It is quite a turn of events for Turkmenistan. In early 2010 a new, second pipeline bringing Turkmen gas to Iran was launched. At that time leaders in the two countries spoke about gas imports to Iran reaching up to 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually. A new gas-compressor station started operation in western Turkmenistan in December 2013, built specifically to export more gas to Iran.

The first gas pipeline connecting the two countries -- the 200-kilometer Korpedzhe-Kurdkui pipeline -- was launched at the end of 1997. It was also the first pipeline that gave Turkmenistan an export route to somewhere outside the former Soviet Union. Iran funded construction of the pipeline to import some 8 bcm of gas a year, mainly to areas of northern Iran that were not well connected to the gas fields of the south.

Russia remained the biggest purchaser of Turkmen gas until a suspicious explosion along the pipeline connecting the two countries occurred in April 2009, amid tense negotiations between the two over the price for Turkmen gas. The ruptured pipeline cut off gas flows entirely for months.

Iran then became for a brief time the main buyer of Turkmen gas, until the new pipeline from Turkmenistan to China started operation at the end of 2009.

Supplies of Turkmen gas to Russia were eventually renewed, but in greatly diminished volumes, leaving Iran the No. 2 customer for Turkmen gas, after China.

International sanctions on Iran have hindered the country from developing its gas sector and from constructing an infrastructure to distribute gas for domestic use. Iran has the second-largest proven gas reserves in the world (Russia has the most) but again, due to sanctions there has been little opportunity to take advantage of that resource.

As talks progress between Tehran and major world powers about Iran's nuclear program, and sanctions are slowly eased, there are new prospects on the horizon for Iran and gas exports are a big part of that.

The same day Zanganeh spoke of the end of Turkmen gas imports, the deputy oil minister in charge of international affairs, Ali Majedi, told journalists Iran was ready to supply Europe with gas via the Nabucco pipeline project.

Nabucco was recently shelved after more than a decade of shareholders trying to get potential gas suppliers to sign contracts for supplies, which gas suppliers were hesitant to do since it was unclear how soon, or even if, Nabucco would be built.

Nabucco was originally envisioned to bring gas from Caspian Basin countries -- Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, possibly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan -- and also possibly from Iraq to Europe by way of a 3,300-kilometer pipeline.

Nabucco was all but scrapped after Azerbaijan opted last year to use the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline to feed into the Trans-Adriatic pipeline across Southern Europe.

Majedi claimed two European countries had already shown interest in reviving the Nabucco scheme and that "Iran with its major gas fields could supply gas to Europe via Nabucco." And Nabucco's map of its proposed route envisioned the possible inclusion of Iran, so the route is already set.

In such a scenario Turkmenistan changes from Iran's gas supplier into Iran's competitor for a space in a pipeline across northern Iran into Turkey and on, eventually, to Austria.

If Oil Minister Zanganeh was sincere in his remarks, this is very bad news for Turkmenistan. It leaves Turkmenistan with two customers for its gas – China and Russia. China is a guaranteed long-term and virtually insatiable customer. Russia has always mixed politics with business in gas dealings with Turkmenistan, an arrangement Ashgabat hoped it was breaking as the Central Asian state showed it was diversifying its export markets.

-- Bruce Pannier, with contributions from Toymyrat Bugayev of RFE/RL's Turkmen Service

The situation in Afghanistan's northern Jowzjan Province continues to deteriorate, with one official claiming an increasing number of ethnic Turkmen are taking up arms, fighting with and against the Taliban, and that the lack of any government force capable of maintaining order has led to the resurgence of local warlords.

RFE/RL's Turkmen Service, Azatlyk, has received new information from areas across Turkmenistan's southern border, indicating the situation in Jowzjan and Faryab provinces is growing more complex and less stable.

Jowzjan provincial police chief Pakyrmuhammet Jowzjany admitted to Azatlyk there had been 45 recent "special operations" in the Akja and Murdiyan districts against people Jowzjany said were Taliban fighters. Despite these operations, Jowzjany said there were still villages where Taliban militants were riding around the streets openly on motorbikes.

Jowzjany said the number of Taliban fighters in his province had been increasing, but he dismissed any suggestion that would have any effect on Turkmenistan, across the border.

Nazary Turkmen, an ethnic Turkmen member of the Afghan parliament from Jowzjan, assessed the seriousness of the threat differently. He said the more powerful the Taliban becomes in Jowzjan, the more dangerous the situation along the border with Turkmenistan will be. "The Taliban don't recognize any borders," Turkmen said. "They think every patch of ground is Allah's property, so they can seize it."

The lawmaker also claimed part of the reason the Taliban militants are growing in number in Jowzjan is because increasingly more ethnic Turkmen are joining them. "In Akja, Sheberghan, and Ankhoi districts 90 percent of the Taliban are ethnic Turkmen," he said.

He added that as a result of the growing Taliban presence in the province, villages and districts have responded by forming local militias, the "Erbaqi," sometimes led by former warlords.

Nazary Turkmen is in a position to know, because he fought as part of an Erbaqi force in the Gunduz area. Turkmen claimed his all-ethnic Turkmen unit killed 11 Taliban and captured another in recent fighting in Konduz.

Returning To Battle

It was not difficult for Azatlyk to find evidence to support the claim of former warlords taking up the sword again.

Emir Allaberen Karyad, 65, is a village elder and a former warlord who has picked up his weapons and joined the fight. Allaberen said he had prayed to live out his twilight years in peace. But the people of his area implored him to lead a force to protect them and when the Taliban killed Allaberen's brother, the village elder returned to combat.

His force of some 70 to 80 men chased the Taliban from the Kokal Dash district and now Allaberen's fighters have established a series of fortified checkpoints around the area to prevent the Taliban from returning.

Allaberen's unit was in action again late on August 13 along the Turkmen border. He claims Taliban militants attacked and killed several members of the Afghan security forces near the border. Allaberen's unit, "without any help from government forces," attacked the militants and drove them from the area.

Allaberen pledged he would defend the border and Turkmenistan but he said he would better be able to protect his area and the frontier with Turkmenistan if Turkmenistan's government would help him and his fellow villagers.

It is a story "Qishloq Ovozi" has heard before.

We already reported on the civil militia in the Qarqeen district of Jowzjan Province, led by a man in 60s named Gurbandurdy, who returned to war when the people of his region called on him to lead them.

Earlier postings from "Qishloq Ovozi" noted the problems in northern Afghanistan extend all along the border with Turkmenistan: in Baghdis, Faryab, and Herat provinces. In Faryab and Baghdis these reports keep coming. The intelligence chief of Faryab's Sherin Tagab district was killed in an ambush on August 8. It's unclear who was responsible but local officials blame the Taliban.

The governor of Faryab Province, Mahmadulla Vatas, told Azatlyk that Taliban activity in his province and in the neighboring Baghdis Province was increasing as were the number of militants. Vatas claimed that, unlike the situation in Jowzjan, many of the militants in Faryab were Chechens and fighters from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. He did not mention ethnic Turkmen.

But he said their presence was bound to have an effect on Turkmenistan. "Their activity can hurt Turkmen-Afghan relations and the situation along the border in particular," Vatas said.

What Is Turkmenistan Doing?

And while Vatas said government forces in his province were doing their best to keep the militants from operating along the Turkmen frontier, the Turkmen government had done nothing militarily to help Afghan forces across the border.

That Turkmenistan's government has done so little is surprising. Three of Turkmenistan's border guards were killed along the Afghan frontier in late February and three of the country's soldiers killed at a different section of the Afghan border in late May.

Officials from Turkmenistan have promised help to ethnic Turkmen in Afghanistan, not militarily of course, but to date there has not been evidence these pledges have been fulfilled.

Meanwhile, Turkmenistan's media continue to ignore the problem on the border with Afghanistan. The pro-government website Turkmenistan.ru reported on August 13 about a visit of an Afghan delegation led by Minister of Trade and Industry Mohammad Shaker Kargar. The report said the Afghan delegation expressed "gratitude for the constant help Turkmenistan has rendered in the restoration of Afghanistan highly valuing the active participation of Turkmenistan in the stabilization and establishment of a peaceful and happy life in the neighboring state."

-- Bruce Pannier, with contributions from Toymyrat Bugayev of RFE/RL's Turkmen Service